gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I will say it’s possible that the temps are too warm on the gfs. NAM/RGEM are in the 28-30 range during the heaviest rates. If there temp is more accurate than I could see higher totals playing out but I really don’t trust the NAM. It also looks like both RGEM and NAM are already too cold with its temps and gfs is dead on so farWhere temps wet bulb to will be key. Today's temp won't matter. Temp at onset will.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Extended is still calling for 2 to 6 for me. I sure hope I didn't screw myself with Murphy's Law. I just got a new snowboard, it was on sale cheap, and the last one they had in my size. I feel like getting a good snow after buying a new board is really, really pressing my luck, specially in March. Last time I bought new bindings we had that awful rain in February and they almost called the season off really short. It sucked, I was like "YES NEW BINDINGS THEY'RE AWESOME!" and then rain and "we might have to close the hill almost as early as we ever have!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro pound town at msp. 1.2 qpf as snow it looks like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 12z euro is even farther sw with snow in Iowa. So far, DVN has not been on board the snow train for their northern area around Dubuque, even though the euro has been bullish for several runs. It'll be interesting to see what they say today. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yuck. Keep that dusting away from me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yuck. Keep that dusting away from me.Agreed, bring on some thunderstorms and keep the minimal nickel and dime snow away from us here in Nebraska. Enjoy the blizzard Dakotas and Minnesota! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yuck. Keep that dusting away from me.I am waiting for our typical forecast this winter - “coating to an inch or a dusting”. Wash, rinse, repeat. Spring has sprung here, hope for better next winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro pound town at msp. 1.2 qpf as snow it looks like?Yup. The bullseye moved right over the metro. MPX gonna upgrade here in the next hour or two I bet. Fwiw today’s forecasted high is 45. We’re only at 38 now. Temp has actually gone down a few tenths in the last hour. Will be interesting to see if temps rebound with the southerly winds overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 MKX added a chance of thunder with the snow Monday night. Should see some WWA later this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yup. The bullseye moved right over the metro. MPX gonna upgrade here in the next hour or two I bet. Fwiw today’s forecasted high is 45. We’re only at 38 now. Temp has actually gone down a few tenths in the last hour. Will be interesting to see if temps rebound with the southerly winds overnight.We can both get in on this impending concrete storm! Also running 6 degrees below forecasted highs so far today. Interesting to see if this has any downstream impacts on temperatures (assuming they don't spike this afternoon) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yup. The bullseye moved right over the metro. MPX gonna upgrade here in the next hour or two I bet. Fwiw today’s forecasted high is 45. We’re only at 38 now. Temp has actually gone down a few tenths in the last hour. Will be interesting to see if temps rebound with the southerly winds overnight.12z GFS had you at 35 at this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 12z GFS had you at 35 at this timeDew point is at like 25 there. Msp should do well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Dew point is at like 25 there. Msp should do well28 But I still think the marginal temps will hold things back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Local forecasts all cut out some of the snow and re-added rain. I don't see where that's coming from though. This thing has been trending colder the whole time it's been around. Started as a pure rain event down here IIRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 The last storm on the east coast hrrr euro etc all had 12+ around NYC area and had temps around 30-32 and the storm happened during the day and they barely got anything. I just don’t buy into the big totals this time of the year Maybe 10+ does fall but some will probably melt before the event is even over 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 28 But I still think the marginal temps will hold things backEasily could happen however I would have a positive feeling there after seeing the Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS has the dew point here at 28. I’m at 26 now. It works both ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 SPS really setting himself up for disappointment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 SPS really setting himself up for disappointmentMoney is half trolling sps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z NAM Kuchera http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030418&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= 12.1 for MSP7 for gosaints area5.2 for here Snowdepth http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snod&rh=2018030418&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= 6.0 for msp4-5 for gosaints 3 for here Much more realistic totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Money is half trolling sps.I’m honestly not There’s no way he gets 10-12+ on the ground from this by the time the storm ends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I’m honestly not There’s no way he gets 10-12+ on the ground from this by the time the storm ends.7+ is no problem... No way?? There is a way. I have had 12 inches on may 9th the day before was in the mid fifties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 7+ is no problem... No way?? There is a way. I have had 12 inches on may 9th the day before was in the mid fifties.I guess we’ll see What were temps during that storm? How heavy were the rates? Did it fall at night or in the middle of the day? All of that matters when it gets this late in the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z NAM Kuchera http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030418&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= 12.1 for MSP7 for gosaints area5.2 for here Snowdepth http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snod&rh=2018030418&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= 6.0 for msp4-5 for gosaints 3 for here Much more realistic totalsI bet you a nickel right or wrong 0z Nam comes back wetter in all areas. And Lol at using snow depth. Measure every 6 hours you won't get that much compaction. Would you toss the Euro is the storm was pounding fond? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z NAM picking up on Lehs???? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018030418/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I bet you a nickel right or wrong 0z Nam comes back wetter in all areas. And Lol at using snow depth. Measure every 6 hours you won't get that much compaction.Would you toss the Euro is the storm was pounding fond?Considering this winter yeah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I guess we’ll see What were temps during that storm? How heavy were the rates? Did it fall at night or in the middle of the day? All of that matters when it gets this late in the seasonStarted as rain early in the morning quick switch mid morning. Snowed all day we hovered between 32-33.5 during the day. Solid rate wet bulbed us and that was it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Over/Under MSP: 8.0Rochester: 5.0Madison: 3.7Oshkosh: 4.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 WWA's issued for Wisco: Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI245 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018...Wintry Weather Returns Monday into Tuesday....A band of intense snow is expected to push across the area fromsouthwest to northeast Monday into Monday night. A quick two tofour inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, is expected.Behind the band of snow, a period of freezing drizzle will bepossible late Monday evening into Monday night, before snowreturns to the area Tuesday morning.In addition to the snowfall, easterly winds will gust in excess of30 MPH at times, which will result in the blowing and drifting ofsnow, as well as additional reductions in visibility.Travel will likely be impacted Monday afternoon and evening, aswell as Tuesday morning.WIZ046-047-057-058-064-065-070>072-050445-/O.NEW.KMKX.WW.Y.0013.180305T2100Z-180306T1800Z/Marquette-Green Lake-Columbia-Dodge-Jefferson-Waukesha-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro,Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Portage, Columbus,Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Watertown,Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin,Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn,Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha245 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CSTTUESDAY...* WHAT...An initial mix of rain and snow will quickly change overto all snow, which could be heavy at times. Total snowaccumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locallyhigher amounts. In addition, light freezing drizzle Mondayevening and Monday night may result in up to a tenth of an inchof ice accumulation.* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Wisconsin.* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to be heavy at times lateMonday afternoon and evening. In addition to the snow, gustyeast winds will result in blowing and drifting of snow, andwill contribute to considerable reductions in visibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Over/Under MSP: 8.0Rochester: 5.0Madison: 3.7Oshkosh: 4.0Msp should be 7 as thats what you said 4-7... Over, over, under, under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Man, according to that snow depth map I would net only about +1/2 inches from this storm. Let's hope that is't correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 SPS really setting himself up for disappointment Nope, I’m really not. I already said I’m aiming low. But it’s cool. You’ve done this twice this winter and I got hit pretty good. You’re my good luck charm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Msp should be 7 as thats what you said 4-7...Over, over, under, underBullish for your area considering you said the other day I had a better chance of getting more snow than you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nope, I’m really not. I already said I’m aiming low. But it’s cool. You’ve done this twice this winter and I got hit pretty good. You’re my good luck charm.I was pretty close last storm was I not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Bullish for your area considering you said the other day I had a better chance of getting more snow than youThe models have consistently pulled back West and the block has slowed it to a crawl. This would only be the 987th time that I have been wrong before... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 I was pretty close last storm was I not?Yeah and we got the forecasted amount. So.....congrats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Looks like GB is pretty bullish Calling for 4-8 gb south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 WWA for Chicago now Calling for 2-4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 Here come the upgrades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 4, 2018 Report Share Posted March 4, 2018 WWA for Chicago now Calling for 2-4 Wunderclown just went back to 3-5. This is another one of those storms where the models are all messed up and no one knows what's going to happen. I just hope it ends up better than the last time this happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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