California Weather/ Climate

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has felt more like June since last night with the marine layer and cooler temps.

[Guest happ]

This is what I thought the monsoon season would be more like. El Nino is not good for monsoon in So Cal as it pushes the ridge more the East. I think June was a fluke and the pattern will have more toughing. 

 

Hi lightning10000

 

The subtropical high is more east than is favorable currently but there were still some thunderstorms yesterday in the San Gabriel mts/ desert; much quieter today.  Maybe more moisture when the trough moves inland later this week.  Can't complain about the temps this week. 

 

82 / 64

[richard mann]

This is what I thought the monsoon season would be more like. El Nino is not good for monsoon in So Cal as it pushes the ridge more the East. I think June was a fluke and the pattern will have more toughing.

It's been generating some real good "cover" here more north where I am. And with a very low potential for "lightning" pretty much.

 

.. Welcome. Post more.

[Jesse]

Some tropical storm activity may make things interesting later in the month.

 

http://s18.postimg.org/mbm7embw9/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Looks troughy over the PNW!

[Alan]

'Coolest' morning since early June at 53F.  Temps up to 20F below normal for valleys and mountains today/tomorrow - maybe some monsoon moisture back in the equation come Sunday into next week....

 

Lets go Dolores!

[richard mann]

.. Wow. (!!)
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

Definitely watershed I'd say. Where looking at things more cyclically, climatologically.

(Main moisture's looking like a giant monsoon, "cactus, flower". Blooming in slow-motion.)

— Obtruded where considering its more northward spread still more, potentially, only by the counter-clockwise circulation of the high to its NNW. All, just main temperature differentiation driven more, it looks at if.

[Guest happ]

'Coolest' morning since early June at 53F.  Temps up to 20F below normal for valleys and mountains today/tomorrow - maybe some monsoon moisture back in the equation come Sunday into next week....

 

Lets go Dolores!

 

Today was the coolest day since June 13; generally 10 or less degrees between max & min temps.  Great conditions for summer.

 

76/ 66

[Dan the Weatherman]

The last few days have felt more like May or June, as opposed to July. It has been nice to have some cooler weather after the heat and humidity of late June, but hopefully we get some more monsoon moisture later this month or in August.

[Alan]

Today felt downright cold - 58/42 - didn't crack 50 until nearly noon when the dense fog lifted. Lower down in the foothills closer to crestline / lake arrowhead reports of up to .50" rain.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It drizzled/rained lightly here in Orange for about a half hour this morning, but only a trace fell. It is very rare to get any type of precip from a marine layer type of event in July, since the marine layer is very rarely this deep this time of year.

[Alan]

Another chilly day in the 50's after a low of 42 with some low clouds hanging around & a breeze....making it feel very much like fall after a few days of this...

[Jesse]

Euro has been consistently showing a hurricane working its way up the Mexican coast. Hopefully its remnants gets picked up by the monsoonal flow.

 

http://s27.postimg.org/ns6zz1noz/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Looks troughy over the PNW!!

[Guest happ]

77° currently [one degree warmer than yesterday's max]. 

 

1PM

LAKE TAHOE, CA CLOUDY    59  44  57 VRB3      30.07S       

LAS VEGAS, NV  MOSUNNY   89  39  17 SE9G22    29.82F   

FLAGSTAFF      PTSUNNY   67  40  37 SW20      30.22F   

PALM SPRINGS   MOSUNNY   88  51  28 NW15G24   29.84F 

TUCSON         SUNNY     92  56  29 SW14G25   29.96F                                                

[Alan]

Yesterday ended with 58/42 with some bouts of dense fog rolling in mid day dropping to the low 50's until the fog blew past and the sun came out again.

 

Starting at 46 this AM.

[Dan the Weatherman]

A brush fire has broken out east of Orange near the 241 Toll Road and Santiago Canyon close to Irvine Lake. I can see the smoke from here in Orange as it is just east of my area. According to the news the fire is now at 125 acres and is burning away from populated areas except for a few structures that are threatened around Irvine Lake. Santiago Canyon Road is closed between the 241 and Modjeska Canyon.

[Alan]

Well Dolores is official now but sadly looks to track further west than hoped, at least on the latest ECMWF. There still should be some impact on California I think. Also, looks to be another tropical storm forming in about 8 days.

Looks to draw up monsoonal moisture to give us a good shot of storms sat-mon at least here in the mountains....if nothing else.

[Guest happ]

Yesterday was the first day it reached normal temps [88/ 65] since 7/2 and today may end up slightly below normal again.  Weak troughing makes perfect July conditions but I do hope that the monsoon and/or Delores moves into California later in the week.

[Alan]

Low 50's and a high topping out right around 70, light breeze and plenty of sunshine. Couldn't ask for a more ideal summer between monsoon outbreaks!

[Guest happ]

Low 50's and a high topping out right around 70, light breeze and plenty of sunshine. Couldn't ask for a more ideal summer between monsoon outbreaks!

 

Agree that this month has been delightful [only recorded one day in the 90's]; dewpoints barely 60 degrees.  But our climate is mostly bland anyway so getting a tropical system or monsoon moisture makes it interesting.  Rooting for Dolores!

 

86 / 66

[Guest happ]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
233 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

...LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...

.HURRICANE DOLORES WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWEST AND WELL
OFFSHORE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
GENERATED WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND SATURDAY EVENING FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. ELEVATED SWELL OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST SWELL ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AT THE BEACHES.

CAZ043-552-161830-
/O.NEW.KSGX.BH.S.0012.150718T1200Z-150720T1000Z/
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
233 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF...RIP CURRENTS...AND
LIGHTNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES AND SURF...SURF WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET SATURDAY WITH
  THE HIGHEST SURF LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
  BEACHES...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
  SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF.
  ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
  LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS...MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...OR
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE AT LOCAL BEACHES. OBEY POSTED WARNING
SIGNS AND FLAGS AND TALK TO A LIFEGUARD BEFORE SWIMMING. USE
CAUTION WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD.

 

[Guest happ]

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-may-miracle-drought-20150717-story.html#page=1

 

Water managers dodge bullet with 'May miracle' rains

 

For drought watchers, it has become known as the May miracle.

 

At a time when water levels in Lake Mead were getting so low that officials prepared for drastic cutbacks, it started raining. A series of powerful storms pummeled the mountains that feed the Colorado River, a key source of water for California, Arizona and Nevada.

 

Water from the rain and snow flowed down the river and into reservoirs that are essential to modern life in the American West.

Lake Mead, where the water level this spring had fallen to lows not seen since Hoover Dam was built in the 1930s, began filling up again — enough to avoid the first cutbacks ever imposed in water deliveries, which the public had been warned could happen next year.

 

"It's taken us out of that potential red zone for this year. There is a 0% chance of a shortage" for next year, said Jeffrey Kightlinger, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California's general manager. "That really good May offers us some breathing room."

Bill Hasencamp, the MWD's Colorado River program manager, was more blunt: "We dodged that bullet."

 

Had it not been for those storms, Southern California could have faced 30% to 40% reductions in imported water, Kightlinger said.

That's because Nevada and Arizona wouldn't have been as willing to lend California their unused river water if a shortage affects them.

 

Southern California is already draining its largest reservoir, Diamond Valley Lake, to keep faucets flowing in Los Angeles. Without more loans of river water, Diamond Valley Lake could have been drained down to its emergency reserve by the end of the year.

"That would've been scary," Kightlinger said.

 

The May miracle was so stunning that some officials could not believe how much water was flowing into Lake Powell, the reservoir upstream from Lake Mead.

"We were on a roller coaster, emotionally," said Chuck Cullom of the Central Arizona Project, which manages a 336-mile aqueduct that delivers river water to most of Arizona's population. "It was exciting. And there was a lot of sense of relief."

The storms came as the jet stream — a powerful flow of winds that moves from west to east — bypassed much of California and slid into the Great Basin over Nevada and Utah. It then transformed into spinning vortexes of energy, known as a cutoff low, Colorado state climatologist Nolan Doesken said.

Beginning in late April, the vortexes were supercharged by subtropical moisture off Mexico's coasts, Doesken said.

 

The result? Six powerful storms moving slowly across the southern and central Rocky Mountains and dumping rain that was unprecedented in the modern historical record.

 

"By the end of May, it was like, 'Whoa! What did just happen?' " Doesken said.

 

The effect can be seen across Colorado. It is now one of the best rafting seasons in years on the upper Colorado River, Ryan Santilli of AVA Rafting said. In early June, the company had to bar young children from rafting as a safety precaution as late spring snows melted.

"We did see a ton more snow ... which really helped put the season over the edge," Santilli said. "We're on a roll."

The storms were also responsible for deadly flooding in Texas and Oklahoma.

Global warming is playing a role in why storms are getting wetter while droughts are getting more severe, said Jake Crouch, climate scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration office in Asheville, N.C.

 

As temperatures rise, the amount of moisture in the air also rises, Crouch said. So whenever it rains or snows, more moisture is being squeezed out of the atmosphere at that particular location — meaning "there's less available somewhere else," Crouch said.

But the storms don't resolve the long-term problems that California, Nevada and Arizona face in their water supply from the Colorado River.

 

For decades, Lake Mead's water reserves, even in previous droughts, had remained generally stable because of low demand.

It wasn't until 2000 that demand for river water soared just as a 15-year drought along the Colorado River basin began, Hasencamp said. Since then, we have been taking water out of the bank.

"Unfortunately, that's the reality of the Colorado River: There is a long-term imbalance that we can't continue to operate in the future as we have in the past," Hasencamp said.

 

 

The Colorado River was divvied up based on the amount of water that flowed through it in the early 20th century, years that scientists now realize were wetter than average. Global warming will probably worsen the situation, Hasencamp said.

"Years like this — the Miracle May — helped us borrow time," he said. "But eventually, there's not going to be enough water to meet all demands."

 

It's not only California, Arizona and Nevada that are worried about shrinking water levels in the nation's two largest reservoirs.

A shortage at Lake Mead could force further draining of Lake Powell, which could eventually affect the water supply in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico, which must share river water with states further downstream, said James Eklund, who works to protect Colorado's interests on the Colorado River.

 

A shortage could create a catastrophic domino effect. If Lake Powell is drained too much, water won't be able to get into the pipes that power turbines that generate electricity at Glen Canyon Dam. That could raise electricity prices, Eklund said.

"It's kind of the — hang together, or we all hang separately — deal," Eklund said.

 

In the meantime, water agencies in Nevada and Arizona are closing in on talks to loan more river water to Southern California in exchange for promises to return it in later years, when they might need more insurance against drought.

"Once you go into shortage, I think the politics starts to take over," Kightlinger said. "When you're not in shortage, then I think us water managers can continue to work with each other."

ron.lin@latimes.com

Twitter: @ronlin

rosanna.xia@latimes.com

Twitter: @RosannaXia

 

 

 

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[Alan]

Rains & thunder moving into San Diego & coastal Orange County.  Should be an interesting weekend in SoCal!

[Guest happ]

Thunderstorm moving overhead currently.  Hopefully it will stay wet all weekend; good news for the fire out in the Cajon Pass.

[Alan]

Truly incredible continuous thunder/lightning and torrential bouts of rain - continuing still.  Temps at 50F dropping from 65F at 8am.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thunderstorm moving overhead currently.  Hopefully it will stay wet all weekend; good news for the fire out in the Cajon Pass.

 

Hopefully it is raining on the Cajon Pass (North Fire) and helping to extinguish it!

[Guest happ]

Sheesh, looks like the most interesting July weather to hit SoCal in years, and I'm up in Oregon where it's hot and dry

 

You may see some rainfall in your gauge.  I haven't checked other stations.  Getting 0.26 in July is quite rare.

 

L: 67

[Guest happ]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1206 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

CAC073-182200-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0019.150718T1906Z-150718T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-
1206 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM PDT

* AT 1205 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
  THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...INCLUDING
  THE SAN DIEGO METRO AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
  STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  CHULA VISTA...OCEANSIDE...CARLSBAD...EL CAJON...VISTA...
  ENCINITAS...NATIONAL CITY...LA MESA...POWAY...IMPERIAL BEACH...
  RAMONA...CORONADO...DEL MAR...ALPINE...VALLEY CENTER...LINDA
  VISTA...TIERRASANTA...MISSION BEACH...UNIVERSITY CITY AND MISSION
  VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
 

[richard mann]

-
Sticking below 90° with a breeze, with the weaker trough influence, at quarter to 2pm here where I am. 
 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc18.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc21.gif

— Not bad for a month into summer, fat middle of July.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I have been getting a nice summer shower here in Orange for the last 20-25 minutes or so and the air has cooled down at least 15 degrees with the rain-cooled air. There have been about 3 claps of thunder and I saw a flash of lightning to the SSE of Orange (toward southern Orange County) a little while ago.

 

There is an impressive band of rain extending from southern Los Angeles County all the way to San Diego and the radar signature is reminiscent of a cold front as one would see during the winter months!

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is still raining here in Orange and has been doing so since I last posted. I am enjoying every minute of this rare July steady light to moderate rain! There has been occasional thunder as well during the last hour.

[Guest happ]

Stratiform light rain continued all afternoon; nice surprise for mid-summer.  This airmass must have greatly helped the firefighters today, esp that freak wild fire in the Cajon Pass.  Did anyone see the footage of people fleeing their burning cars on the 15 freeway yesterday?

 

87 / 67

0.51 [i'm sure daily records were broken all over Southern California]

[Alan]

Many many daily and monthly records were set today all across SoCal.

 

.80" here with flash flood watch in effect until 5am Monday - looks like Dolores' remnant moisture is poised to move onshore after 5pm tomorrow.

 

Some of the higher totals from NWS SD

 

1. CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 1.55 8NNW SAN DIEGO

2. MIRAMAR LAKE 1.47 3ESE MIRA MESA
3. KEARNY MESA 1.44 6NNW SAN DIEGO
4. MONTGOMERY FIELD 1.42 6NNW SAN DIEGO
5. YUCAIPA RIDGE 1.38 2ESE FOREST FALLS
6. RAMONA AIRPORT 1.18 2W RAMONA
7. RANCHO BERNARDO 1.13
8. POWAY 1.12 1SW POWAY
9. CRAFTON RESERVOIR 1.10 2E REDLANDS
10.RAMONA 1.06 0 RAMONA

[Dan the Weatherman]

.26" fell here in Orange from the remnants of Dolores, which is a substantial amount for this time of year even though it pales in comparison to the amounts that fell in parts of the San Diego metro area. Hopefully we get some more rain / t-storms tomorrow!

[Alan]

Who's ready for another day of epic weather in this Jubilant July!

[Guest happ]

Dew points in 60's / low 70's as far north as Central Cal.

[BLI snowman]

San Diego had its wettest July day on record yesterday. Good chance they see more tropical activity nearby at some point, too.

[Alan]

I'd say so!

 

[Front Ranger]

San Diego had its wettest July day on record yesterday. Good chance they see more tropical activity nearby at some point, too.

 

Wettest July day and wettest July period. This after their wettest May on record two months ago. Pretty epic period for them.

[Alan]

 

.25" in 15 minutes then another .25" in 5 minutes.  Constant loud rolling thunder with lightning - just shook the house!

[Dan the Weatherman]

Incredibly heavy rain has been falling here in Orange over the last 45 minutes or so. I went in my pool before the rain started and actually stayed in during the downpour for a while as there was no thunder or lightning. Never before have I been in my pool during a downpour since this type of weather is almost unheard of during the summer months in this area.

It is still coming down in buckets as I type and I don't think I have ever seen rain like this in July before of this duration. This is almost like a heavy El Nino winter storm and I am enjoying every minute of this extremely rare rainfall! There hasn't been any thunder or lightning, but the rain has certainly been heavy and steady!