California Weather/ Climate

[TT-SEA]

The latest GFS shows absolutely no rain for So Cal over the next 10 days.  It's like no matter what combo of ENSO, PDO, and other indices we have you guys can't score.  You could still hit the jackpot in Jan and Feb though.  Nothing is for sure with this Nino IMO.

 

 

The 00Z ECMWF shows two shots of rain for SoCal later next week as the ULLs split and drop through there.    

[Guest happ]

The latest GFS shows absolutely no rain for So Cal over the next 10 days.  It's like no matter what combo of ENSO, PDO, and other indices we have you guys can't score.  You could still hit the jackpot in Jan and Feb though.  Nothing is for sure with this Nino IMO.

 

It is not unusual for extended periods of winter dryness in California particularly in November/ December.  In-fact, most years only record approximately 6-8 storms / 15-25 days of rainfall.   EDIT: Aver days of rainfall: 34 perhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Los_Angeles

 

Orange county scored for most rainfall in SoCal; many areas remained dry.  Check out those minimum temps down at the beach this morning.

 

LAGUNA BEACH  :   61 /  43 /  0.41 /

DANA POINT       :   62 /  44 /  0.67 /

 

Friday:  63/ 49

 

L: 45 [coldest reading since Jan 4th]

[snow_wizard]

It is not unusual for extended periods of winter dryness in California particularly in November/ December.  In-fact, most years only record approximately 6-8 storms / 15-20 days of rainfall.   

 

Orange county scored for most rainfall in SoCal; many areas remained dry.  Check out those minimum temps down at the beach this morning.

 

LAGUNA BEACH  :   61 /  43 /  0.41 /

DANA POINT       :   62 /  44 /  0.67 /

 

Friday:  63/ 49

 

L: 45 [coldest reading since Jan 4th]

 

I was just pointing out the super soaker forecasts that many have issued for Cal this winter have yet to materialize.

 

No doubt the current pattern is good for some decent low temps down there.  I imagine the inland areas are pretty cold.

[TT-SEA]

I was just pointing out the super soaker forecasts that many have issued for Cal this winter have yet to materialize.

 

No doubt the current pattern is good for some decent low temps down there. I imagine the inland areas are pretty cold.

I remember the winter of 97-98 down there... pretty quiet until January and then all hell broke loose. Ninos tend to dump rain in the second half of the winter down there. It's coming.

[Guest happ]

I was just pointing out the super soaker forecasts that many have issued for Cal this winter have yet to materialize.

 

No doubt the current pattern is good for some decent low temps down there.  I imagine the inland areas are pretty cold.

 

Subfreezing temps in the lower elevations occurred from the southern Sacramento/ northern San Joaquin valleys, inland Bay Area, high desert.  Tonight should be colder.  Agriculture concerns include strawberry fields along Central coast/ citrus in foothills.

 

It hasn't been this cold since early January.    

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=93231

[Guest happ]

A look at early morning conditions showed below freezing temps across the Central Valley and near freezing temps down to water level in the Bay Area [santa Clara: 33°].  First freeze of the season in much of California.  SoCal was probably too cloudy overnight but tonight should be clear so 30's are still possible.  It's great that we are getting some cold weather after months of record warmth.  Lots of snow making up in the high country. 

 

Saturday: 64 / 45

 

L: 49  

[Guest happ]

Northern California town colder than Barrow, Alaska, as deep freeze intensifies

 

By Shelby Grad 

 

A record cold snap continued across Northern California on Sunday, including more below-zero temperature readings.

According to the National Weather Service, it was actually colder in Alturas, Calif., the seat of Modoc County in the far northeastern corner California, than it was in Barrow, Alaska, which lies above the Arctic Circle and is the northernmost city in the United States. Alturas registered minus-3 degrees, while Barrow recorded 3 degrees above zero. It was even colder in Alturas on Saturday -- minus-5, breaking a record set in 1931 -- and that was warmer than one spot in California, in the Lassen National Forest east of Redding, which checked in at minus-11.

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-california-town-colder-than-barrows-alaska-as-deep-freeze-intensifies-20151129-htmlstory.html

[Guest happ]

November 2015

 

Aver. Max: 74.1 [Norm: 74

Aver Min: 54.2 [Norm: 54

Mean:  64.1 [Norm: 64

 

Hi/Lo Max: 89 / 63

Hi/Lo Min: 69 / 45

 

Rain: 0.04

Rainyear [jul-jun]: 3.11

Days: 1

[Guest happ]

Seasonal temps/ dry conditions for a while; so what else is new in California? 

 

72 / 50

[Dan the Weatherman]

Seasonal temps/ dry conditions for a while; so what else is new in California? 

 

72 / 50

 

It won't stay dry for much longer hopefully, especially considering how strong this El Nino is.

[richard mann]

It won't stay dry for much longer hopefully, especially considering how strong this El Nino is.

This month / December, being the main "tell-tale" month, certainly likely. .....

 

More generally, .. With the more seasonal [general] expansion of cold southward, over-all distribution of cold appearing to be working, if more gradually, to coral in main moisture / even limit its access north more of the time, as we move closer to winter.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n3&inv=0&t=cur

[Dan the Weatherman]

Despite the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks (especially the 8-14 Day) showing above normal precipitation for Socal, NWS San Diego is still not hinting at any pattern change that would lead to rain chances down here. I wouldn't expect to see any chances added to the forecasts just yet, but I would think that their AFD would mention at least the possibility of a pattern change in the longer range.

[Guest happ]

Despite the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks (especially the 8-14 Day) showing above normal precipitation for Socal, NWS San Diego is still not hinting at any pattern change that would lead to rain chances down here. I wouldn't expect to see any chances added to the forecasts just yet, but I would think that their AFD would mention at least the possibility of a pattern change in the longer range.

 

There is a fair amount of snow forecast for the Sierra today; up to and over one foot in northern California. 

 

Wednesday: 79 / 55

 

Lo: 60 Revised: 57

[Dan the Weatherman]

I'm guessing because none of the models depict a pattern change as yet?

 

We may get brushed by the tail end of something next Friday or so, but otherwise it looks dry as far out as the models can see (Hour 384).

 

I'm also guessing the AFD is tasked to consider only what the models show, and not the crystal-ball-gazing of the longer-range outlooks.

This dryness can't continue for much longer considering how strong this El Nino is right now. There must be some other factor that is in control of the weather that is making it feel La Nina-ish or ENSO-neutral-ish right now and that just might have been the MJO activity in the Indian Ocean that has occurred over the last month.

 

There was a very strong storm here in Orange in early December 1997 (5th-7th or so) that brought about 4" to my area. One night there was almost continuous lightning for hours along with pouring rain, something I haven't quite seen the likes of since.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=94657

[Guest happ]

It seems California can't get no love from Mother Nature at least the southern half of the state.  A reporter with CNN described today as "California cool"; 60's instead of 70's.  There was a fair amount of rainfall over northern California yesterday and maybe some more rain/ snow in a few days up there.  Hopefully a pattern change will kick in for the Southwest sometime this month.

 

Thursday

77/ 57

 

Lo: 51

[Dan the Weatherman]

With this El Nino as strong as it is, I would be expecting at least some rainfall here in Socal during December, and if everything goes to plan, I would expect the heavier rains to begin sometime in January.

 

The problem I have been having with this fall is the absolute level of inactivity in my region, and that is not only the lack of rain, but also the lack of strong Santa Ana winds. I know it is good from a fire danger standpoint that we don't get strong Santa Ana winds, but I also feel that it is part of the transition into the winter pattern that leads to more rainfall. I feel that there has been a delay in the weather pattern this fall and I believe it started when it took longer than average to transition from summer into fall back in October.

[richard mann]

With this El Nino as strong as it is, I would be expecting at least some rainfall here in Socal during December, and if everything goes to plan, I would expect the heavier rains to begin sometime in January.

 

Pretty much my thinking Dan. If more the first half of January. 

[Guest happ]

With this El Nino as strong as it is, I would be expecting at least some rainfall here in Socal during December, and if everything goes to plan, I would expect the heavier rains to begin sometime in January.

 

The problem I have been having with this fall is the absolute level of inactivity in my region, and that is not only the lack of rain, but also the lack of strong Santa Ana winds. I know it is good from a fire danger standpoint that we don't get strong Santa Ana winds, but I also feel that it is part of the transition into the winter pattern that leads to more rainfall. I feel that there has been a delay in the weather pattern this fall and I believe it started when it took longer than average to transition from summer into fall back in October.

 

I remember the 1982-83 El Nino and was taking temperature readings during that time but not rainfall.  I did measure rainfall in the 1997-98 ENSO event that started in November ending in May.  The summer of 1997 was hot and included a thunderstorm in Sept [0.62].  October was rainless but not near as hot as this year. 

 

1997

Nov : 2.81

Dec : 3.08

1998 

Jan : 4.19

Feb : 16.28

Mar:  2.95

Apr : 0.98

May : 4.58

 

Total: 35.56

[Dan the Weatherman]

The summer of 1997 was quite humid as well, much like this summer was. Like you said, though, October wasn't as hot as this past October, as the pattern transitioned into fall sooner than it did this year.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I just can't believe how calm and inactive this pattern has been this fall, especially now that we are in December. Santa Ana winds were forecast to come up last night and early this morning 15-25 mph w/ gusts to 30 mph here in Orange, and the wind didn't even come up at all. It isn't just the lack of rain concerning me right now, but also the lack of wind as well. It just isn't normal for the weather to be this tranquil this time of year as if it is the middle of summer or something.

[Guest happ]

I just can't believe how calm and inactive this pattern has been this fall, especially now that we are in December. Santa Ana winds were forecast to come up last night and early this morning 15-25 mph w/ gusts to 30 mph here in Orange, and the wind didn't even come up at all. It isn't just the lack of rain concerning me right now, but also the lack of wind as well. It just isn't normal for the weather to be this tranquil this time of year as if it is the middle of summer or something.

 

I did experience wind damage [tree branches, power outage] in late October from NNW [45-55mph] that shifted into NE santa ana/ it was the last heatwave.  Diurnal 10 - 20mph NE wind is routine here during winter.  My hope is that the prevailing pattern of moisture over the PacificNW continue to shift into California; could mean heavy snowfall for northern Sierra later this week.

 

Saturday: 75/ 51

 

L: 57

[Guest happ]

CPC 6-12 & 8-14 day outlook shows rain/ snow for all but SoCal.  Big cool down later in the week.

 

Sunday 81/ 57

 

Today: 83/ 60

[Dan the Weatherman]

There is a chance of showers here in Socal later this week. However, the wording of the forecast isn't too convincing to me right now: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

 

This implies a scattered shower scenario, something that has NOT been beneficial to my area this fall, and I am fearing another NW flow event that will bypass my area leaving the region high and dry.

 

By the way this fall still feels like that of an ENSO neutral year that is going to lead to yet another dry winter, but I really hope I am wrong in this regard. I know that a strong El Nino often brings good rains here, but this weather pattern as of late just doesn't feel right for being in a strong Nino. November / December 1997 is a much better example of the kind of sequences in weather I would be expecting in a year like this.

[Guest happ]

Over on the PNW forum they keep bringing up the 2006-2007 analogue even though that wasn't a strong El Niño year.  I shudder as much as Dan does to think they might be right, but it's certainly possible.  There may simply be too many other factors at work which outweigh the influence of even a strong El Niño, and the result is yet another dry winter for SoCal.

 

About the only consolation thus far is that at least the Sierra is getting some snow.  That's an improvement on last year.

 

Also, it's early yet, and there could still be a big pattern change in the Jan-Feb-Mar time frame.

 

Fingers crossed!

 

2006-07 was the worse rain year I can remember w/ only 5.21" at my location.  Interestingly the 2004-05 rainyear was the best with an astonishing 54.79;  a few 24-hour totals over 5 inches.  It was the most remarkable rain season I can ever recall and left quite a bit of erosion damage in my neighborhood.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Over on the PNW forum they keep bringing up the 2006-2007 analogue even though that wasn't a strong El Niño year.  I shudder as much as Dan does to think they might be right, but it's certainly possible.  There may simply be too many other factors at work which outweigh the influence of even a strong El Niño, and the result is yet another dry winter for SoCal.

 

About the only consolation thus far is that at least the Sierra is getting some snow.  That's an improvement on last year.

 

Also, it's early yet, and there could still be a big pattern change in the Jan-Feb-Mar time frame.

 

Fingers crossed!

The heavy rains in the Pacific NW right now are reminding me of late fall 2006 as well. I hope that doesn't mean that we are going to get a bone-dry winter like 2006-07 as a result of this. This Nino is much, much stronger than 2006-07, which I would think would be enough to overcome whatever dominant pattern(s) caused 2006-07 to be such a dry year here, especially in Socal.

[Guest happ]

Probably the warmest temps in the nation occurred in SoCal with several stations reporting 88° in San Fernando valley.  Much cooler and possible rain later in the week/ next week.

 

85 / 63

[richard mann]

Pretty much my thinking Dan. If more the first half of January. 

 

At this point Dan, I'm looking at a main "El Nino" type shot ("Atmospheric River", directed into Central California.), from about the 6th, through the 10th, of January. 

 

This with then, as with now, main colder air being in general expansion mode (Main source cold to be moving and spreading daily more south.), while at the same time where looked at more longitudinally, moving at an increasing more stepped up pace east. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

At this point Dan, I'm looking at a main "El Nino" type shot ("Atmospheric River", directed into Central California.), from about the 6th, through the 10th, of January. 

 

This with then, as with now, main colder air being in general expansion mode (Main source cold to be moving and spreading daily more south.), while at the same time where looked at more longitudinally, moving at an increasing more stepped up pace east. 

 

I hope your forecast verifies as it would be much needed precip to start the new year!

[Guest happ]

Daniel Swain's El Nino article is very encouraging: http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3677

[Dan the Weatherman]

Daniel Swain's El Nino article is very encouraging: http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3677

I forgot that he was going to have an update today and I read and blog at his site almost every day.

 

Weather West is one of the most comprehensive and one of the best blogs devoted to California weather that I know of.

[richard mann]

Daniel Swain's El Nino article is very encouraging: http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3677

 

This sounds (reads.) pretty much on the mark, certainly in line with what I've been both thinking and looking at. 

 

And, certainly a well-written article. As Dan's said, "comprehensive". 

 

More basically, and in line with the whole winter hasn't really arrived yet idea, .. With what I've been seeing having begun later last week along with otherwise more at this point here more north where I am precip. wise, it certainly appears that "things" (Main stores of cold out of the north.) are moving and spreading, if still only more gradually, progressively more southward as the season advances. *

 

— If in a fairly prime location for precip. reception and accumulation here where I am with both south and more westward facing fairly strong main orographic challenges presented to whatever potential incoming system moisture, my more simple rain gages (plastic 5-gal. buckets) showed a good inch where looking at the most recent past rain. And we're getting some if not more constant and drenching rain, today, with looking at a main brunt set of showers being forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Which will the move on to dropped snow at higher elevations. 

 

* .. With my more "inner-seasonal" appreciation of main colder air's both more latitudinal looked at together with more longitudinal both main movement and distribution, I have colder air—currently spreading daily more south—set to start to regress back north beginning on the 12th, with continuing this general retraction through to the 25th. But looked at with its current general expansion more still at this point, this isn't a bad thing necessarily, at least more immediately and nearer the 12th forward, with the allowance being there for some amount of main moisture (warmer and wetter air from the south.) to move a bit more northward to set up in cold's path more eastward. As I have it at that point, set to slow its current more stepped up movement east, gradually, from the 11th forward. 

[Guest happ]

Now we wait for rain, at least south of Pt. Conception, the geographic point that can kill north Pacific storms trying to enter SoCal.

 

Wednesday:  77 / 61

 

Today: 68 / 54

[Guest happ]

Signal of El Nino: http://abc7.com/weather/ventura-pier-closes-due-to-damage-from-high-surf/1118907/

[Dan the Weatherman]

There were a few light showers here in Orange last night, and some light rain this morning. The rain has been more substantial than the two-minute sprinkles and ten minute light showers that have been the norm with every storm since the beginning of November.

 

Hopefully this is the beginning of a wetter pattern overall that results in heavier and steadier rainfall for the region.

[Guest happ]

There were a few light showers here in Orange last night, and some light rain this morning. The rain has been more substantial than the two-minute sprinkles and ten minute light showers that have been the norm with every storm since the beginning of November.

 

Hopefully this is the beginning of a wetter pattern overall that results in heavier and steadier rainfall for the region.

 

The exact boundary of the rain shadow determines precipitation.  Areas west of LA can often be dry while Orange county/ Inland Empire and esp San Diego can record some impressive totals such as Mt Laguna 1.22".  Only 0.05 at USC and the road was dry at my home when I left for work.    

[Alan]

.20" rain at 4am followed by 3.5" snow this afternoon from an impressive bout of thundersnow!

[Guest happ]

Lots of strong wind overnight but rainfall was essentially a non event at my particular location.  Tomorrow night's front may hold together better w/ more impressive rain totals.

 

Friday: 62 / 51

            0.01

 

L: 50

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=96820 .. (@)