April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Like I said I don't think it will be as hot as I thought it would be but still warmer than normal. The basic background state we've been in isn't just going to flip like that. It's going to be a slow progression out of it if it does eventually happen.

It has been cool the last few months. We might be in a new “background state”. Typical Niña spring.

[Jesse]

Let’s meet up at my house and have a picnic! Perhaps play a little tennis!

Didn’t you grow up here?

 

And in anticipation of the kneejerk comeback, yes, I dislike extended periods of heat. But living here it is reasonable (for now) not to expect summers like 2015 every year.

 

If I were living in Phoenix and crying every time it got over 95 it would be pretty silly, though. Sort of like complaining about normal, rainy cool seasons around here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It has been cool the last few months. We might be in a new “background state”. Typical Niña spring.

Basically the last few months have been winter and the continuation into spring. Last year everybody thought we were headed for a cooler rest of spring/summer after March ended but instead look at what happened. Winter ended later than usual this season and we're still seeing some effects of that. Plus this spring Seattle already set a record high for a date and most locations in Oregon will set new record warm lows tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

It’s amazing how much time people spend here complaining about what is basically climo.

Is being thankful for a couple nice days in a Nina spring bad? That is all I said.

[MossMan]

Didn’t you grow up here?

And in anticipation of the kneejerk comeback, yes, I dislike extended periods of heat. But living here it is reasonable (for now) not to expect summers like 2015 every year.

If I were living in Phoenix and crying every time it got over 95 it would be pretty silly, though. Sort of like complaining about normal, rainy cool seasons around here.

Yes I have lived here my entire life...doesn’t change the fact that I would prefer this type of an April day.

[Phil]

Like I said I don't think it will be as hot as I thought it would be but still warmer than normal. The basic background state we've been in isn't just going to flip like that. It's going to be a slow progression out of it if it does eventually happen.

Well, I would not consider last several summers to be some sort of “new normal”. If anything, they were an abomination, brought on by a slow/impotent phase of the IPWP-extension cycle. The recent solar maximum was too weak to fully extend the IPWP, but just strong enough to activate the 160E warm pool trigger point.

 

We’re leaving this phase finally, albeit slowly. So while there will be residual/intermittent homogeneity to the previous regime, it should degrade with time. In my opinion, at least.

[MossMan]

Is being thankful for a couple nice days in a Nina spring bad? That is all I said.

Yes. We should be ashamed of ourselves for wanting anything except rain and cold 365 days a year.

[Phil]

Basically the last few months have been winter and the continuation into spring. Last year everybody thought we were headed for a cooler rest of spring/summer after March ended but instead look at what happened. Winter ended later than usual this season and we're still seeing some effects of that. Plus this spring Seattle already set a record high for a date and most locations in Oregon will set new record warm lows tomorrow.

Remember that we were already in El Niño conditions last year at this time. The EPAC was boiling hot, and the extended NPAC Jet/Aleutian Low was truly a background state. It was a bizarre sequence of events thereafter that flipped it around.

[seattleweatherguy]

According to the Afd the models are still split on the track. The nam being the strongest

[TT-SEA]

Up to 56 at SEA.

 

Warmer rain is better than cold rain at this point because it will help the trees leaf out much more effectively.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Basically the last few months have been winter and the continuation into spring. Last year everybody thought we were headed for a cooler rest of spring/summer after March ended but instead look at what happened. Winter ended later than usual this season and we're still seeing some effects of that. Plus this spring Seattle already set a record high for a date and most locations in Oregon will set new record warm lows tomorrow.

Nina springs are known for quick flashes of hot weather surrounded by weeks of rain and cold.

 

Don't use a record high at SEA as any signal of warm weather ahead. It might be an indication of just the opposite.

 

Look at 2008... flash of hot weather in May in an otherwise very cold spring. That must be the wonderful 5 days of nice weather that Phil sees over the next 3 months.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Well, I would not consider last several summers to be some sort of “new normal”. If anything, they were an abomination, brought on by a slow/impotent phase of the IPWP-extension cycle. The recent solar maximum was too weak to fully extend the IPWP, but just strong enough to activate the 160E warm pool trigger point.

 

We’re leaving this phase finally, albeit slowly. So while there will be residual/intermittent homogeneity to the previous regime, it should degrade with time. In my opinion, at least.

Yeah the last few summers aren't going to be the new normal. What's happened over the course of that time period is really note worthy in terms of the heat that we have experienced here in the PNW. As others have noted the stretch we've been in has been remarkable to say the least. Which is the reason why I just don't see a sudden turn to cooler than normal anamolies.

[Jesse]

Is being thankful for a couple nice days in a Nina spring bad? That is all I said.

Not at all. What you said was just fine, and got blown way out of proportion.

[Jesse]

Yeah the last few summers aren't going to be the new normal. What's happened over the course of that time period is really note worthy in terms of the heat that we have experienced here in the PNW. As others have noted the stretch we've been in has been remarkable to say the least. Which is the reason why I just don't see a sudden turn to cooler than normal anamolies.

So you are saying the stretch we have seen has been completely remarkable, and that is your reason for predicting a 6th consecutive hot summer? That does not make sense, logically. The unusual nature of that stretch argues against its continuation, not for it.

[stuffradio]

Just under an inch of rain today so far.

[Front Ranger]

Not at all. What you said was just fine, and got blown way out of proportion.

He started with just that, but then went overboard with the following responses.

 

I never made a huge deal out of his initial statement. He blew it out of proportion.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

So you are saying the stretch we have seen has been completely remarkable, and that is your reason for predicting a 6th consecutive hot summer? That does not make sense, logically. The unusual nature of that stretch argues against its continuation, not for it.

No, once again your missing my point. I'm just saying I don't see a sudden flip to cooler than normal summer weather. I've just said I'm backing off on how hot I thought this summer might be. In the end my prediction is warmer than normal still.

[Jesse]

No, once again your missing my point. I'm just saying I don't see a sudden flip to cooler than normal summer weather. I've just said I'm backing off on how hot I thought this summer might be. In the end my prediction is warmer than normal still.

In that case you can just say there is no scientific basis behind your prediction. It’s a guess based on a gut feeling, which is not at all uncommon here. And you could end up being right!

[stuffradio]

In that case you can just say there is no scientific basis behind your prediction. It’s a guess based on a gut feeling, which is not at all uncommon here. And you could end up being right!

But look what hour 384 shows!

[Jesse]

But look what hour 384 shows!

EPS will lead the way.

 

60% of the time...it works every time.

[Jesse]

Tomorrow should be in the mid-upper 60s, and probably a little humid.

 

Will definitely be the warmest “feeling” day we have had this year so far.

[Front Ranger]

Tomorrow should be in the mid-upper 60s, and probably a little humid.

 

Will definitely be the warmest “feeling” day we have had this year so far.

 

In the car or out?

[Phil]

Yeah the last few summers aren't going to be the new normal. What's happened over the course of that time period is really note worthy in terms of the heat that we have experienced here in the PNW. As others have noted the stretch we've been in has been remarkable to say the least. Which is the reason why I just don't see a sudden turn to cooler than normal anamolies.

Your reasoning makes no sense to me. The 2010-12 summers were exceptionally cool/troughy and then things flipped warm (quite abruptly) starting in 2013.

 

So, these “background states” can change very quickly when triggered. At some point, probably very soon, these warm summer patterns you’ve experienced will not only end, but reverse. It’s just the way things work.

[seattleweatherguy]

Bottom line chance for a cool summer this year?

[TT-SEA]

Your reasoning makes no sense to me. The 2010-12 summers were exceptionally cool/troughy and then things flipped warm (quite abruptly) starting in 2013.

 

So, these “background states” can change very quickly when triggered. At some point, probably very soon, these warm summer patterns you’ve experienced will not only end, but reverse. It’s just the way things work.

 

Matt has said that 2010 was not a troughy summer... it was a boundary layer issue.

 

And 2012 was a spectacular summer after it got going... I think there was one of the longest dry stretches in history here.  I know August was the driest ever at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

Cliff Mass update... says this is one of the greatest AR events ever right now pointed at CA.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/04/one-of-greatest-west-coast-atmospheric.html

[Phil]

Euro weeklies maintain the frigid Canada pattern through the next month, at least. Though perhaps not quite as absurd as today.

 

Hints of another -NAO event starting week 3, with the cold expanding back into Eurasia, as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Matt has said that 2010 was not a troughy summer... it was a boundary layer issue.

 

And 2012 was a spectacular summer after it got going... I think there was one of the longest dry stretches in history here.  I know August was the driest ever at SEA.

 

Looks like more than a boundary layer issue, considering the cool weather extended well inland across the NW quadrant of the country.

 

[Phil]

Looks like more than a boundary layer issue, considering the cool weather extended well inland across the NW quadrant of the country.

 

JJA10TDeptUS.png

Yeah, developing strong Niña/-PDO/-PNA thru JJA. That was pure EHEM/Niña forcing once into July, IIRC.

 

I think 2012 was also chilly/-PNA until August? I haven’t actually looked yet, just going by memory.

[Phil]

So..both the Euro weeklies and AAM analogs support another -NAO event in early May.

 

If it does occur, we’re looking at another protracted period of jet suppression, equatorward wavetrains, and the bloated NH snowcover anomaly will only grow larger (relative to average).

[Phil]

[Phil]

For the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, the record for total mass load was set in late March.

 

That’s essentially climo as far as timing is concerned, but the amount of snow on the continents is unusually large.

 

[Phil]

Snow depth across the Northern Hemisphere is above average just about everywhere there is snowcover.

 

Those islands to the NW of Greenland have actually remained snow covered at +60cm of average and above since 2013.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

In that case you can just say there is no scientific basis behind your prediction. It’s a guess based on a gut feeling, which is not at all uncommon here. And you could end up being right!

I provided some reasoning a few weeks ago. Too lazy to look it up and busy with work. My predictions are almost always based on scientific reasoning. My gut feelings really only apply to snowfall accumulations.

[Jesse]

Ice age meow!

[Phil]

Ice age meow!

 

Kidding aside, I’m impressed so far. This is almost like a throwback to the 1960s.

 

Also, the (eventual?) melting of this snow will require a large latent heat load, so there should be some continental cooling over the next few months. Might increase your chances for a more solidly chilly A/M/J if the pattern works out decently.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Your reasoning makes no sense to me. The 2010-12 summers were exceptionally cool/troughy and then things flipped warm (quite abruptly) starting in 2013.

 

So, these “background states” can change very quickly when triggered. At some point, probably very soon, these warm summer patterns you’ve experienced will not only end, but reverse. It’s just the way things work.

I know it will change at some point, there's no denying that. I just don't feel this is the year. Some people are just tired of the hot weather and are hoping for cooler weather and trying to convince themselves it will happen. I got no problem with that but I'm sticking to my warmer than normal summer forecast here in the PNW. I'll go out on a limb and be the only one with this prediction.

[Phil]

I know it will change at some point, there's no denying that. I just don't feel this is the year. Some people are just tired of the hot weather and are hoping for cooler weather and try ok ng to convince themself it will happen. I got no problem with that but I'm sticking to my warmer than normal summer forecast here in the PNW. I'll go out on a limb and be the only one with this prediction.

I’m not saying you’re wrong here (you could be right about everything..I don’t have the answers). However, I’m curious as to your reasoning. That’s all. Gut feelings are interesting, but usually there’s some foundational science underpinning said feelings, right? Or am I misinterpreting you?

 

FWIW, my gut told me to expect a blowtorch, 2007/08 style winter out here. Boy was my gut wrong.

[Jesse]

I know it will change at some point, there's no denying that. I just don't feel this is the year. Some people are just tired of the hot weather and are hoping for cooler weather and trying to convince themselves it will happen. I got no problem with that but I'm sticking to my warmer than normal summer forecast here in the PNW. I'll go out on a limb and be the only one with this prediction.

This seems pretty scientific. I stand corrected.