April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

12z WRF-GFS showing strong wind gust over PDX Metro from about 10am to 3pm. It shows gust up to around 50 knots, which is close to 60 mph. The time of day couldn't come at a better time too because it's easier to get the strong wind gust to mix down to the surface during peak heating. Nice 5 to 6 hour window of strong winds. Right now I'm thinking widespread 55 mph to 65 mph wind gust for the Willamette Valley on Saturday. Wouldn't shock me to see a reading close to 70 mph.

Does a mature and weakening low center offshore, often produce 70mph gusts for inland locations of Oregon?

[BLI snowman]

Fact remains... there have been more days with precip to this point in the year than any other year this decade.   And there have been multiple late season snow events which has not happened for several years.   And just melting off the snow seems like a victory right now. 

 

Sooooooooooooooo... I will take what I can get this spring.    Normal or not.    I will take what I can get this spring.    A nice day on Friday and again on Monday sounds nice despite the weekend being wet and unpleasant in between.     

 

I will take what I can get this spring.    And I expect it will stay cool and wet through June with a fading Nina.

 

That's fine to say you will take what you can get in the spring in terms of sun. I think we mostly all feel that way.

 

Just don't misrepresent what has been a fairly average year up to this point for precip patterns. There have been a number of nice and/or mostly dry days since January ended and the Palmer, WA station just had its driest March since 2006.

 

And the firehose that we're staring down right now is looking to be the first sustained regionally wetter than average pattern in quite awhile.

[TT-SEA]

That's fine to say you will take what you can get in the spring in terms of sun. I think we mostly all feel that way.

 

Just don't misrepresent what has been a fairly average year up to this point for precip patterns. There have been a number of nice and/or mostly dry days since January ended and the Palmer, WA station just had its driest March since 2006.

 

And the firehose that we're staring down right now is looking to be the first sustained regionally wetter than average pattern in quite awhile.

 

I not misrepresenting anything.   My only statement was that I will take what I can get this spring.

 

I used the local rainfall data to show Jared what has been happening here locally.   Normally we have precip on about 65% of the days in the Jan-Mar period and this year its been almost 80% of the days.     If we had the normal number of days with precip for this area then we would have had roughly another 15 dry days in that period.    That would have been nice.    

 

Its been persistently wet out here... more than usual for this area.   Not in terms of total rainfall but in terms of persistence.   And there have been several late season snow events.   And its been generally cold.  

 

So... I will take what I can get this spring.     Particularly knowing where we are heading over the next couple weeks and probably through June.

[BLI snowman]

I not misrepresenting anything.   My only statement was that I will take what I can get this spring.

 

I used the local rainfall data to show Jared what has been happening here locally.   Normally we have precip on about 65% of the days in the Jan-Mar period and this year its been almost 80% of the days.     If we had the normal number of days with precip for this area then we would have had roughly another 15 dry days in that period.    That would have been nice.    

 

Its been persistently wet out here... more than usual for this area.   And there have been several late season snow events.   And its been generally cold.  

 

So... I will take what I can get this spring.     Particularly knowing where we are heading over the next couple weeks and probably through June.

 

Yeah, it's always persistently wet out there. Looks like only 14/31 days had more than 0.03" of precip in March at your location. That's a good month by your standards, considering March is a rain forest month. 

 

And it's nice that you got to spend those 15 extra earned dry days in 80 degree Hawaii while the rest of us were suffering through that nasty chilly spell in late February.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Does a mature and weakening low center offshore, often produce 70mph gusts for inland locations of Oregon?

I'm expecting gusts generally between 55 to 65 mph. I just threw out 70 mph because there always seems to be an isolated spot that gets higher winds, most likely in the higher terrains.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it's always persistently wet out there. Looks like only 14/31 days had more than 0.03" of precip in March at your location. That's a good month by your standards, considering March is a rain forest month. 

 

And it's nice that you got to spend those 15 extra earned dry days in 80 degree Hawaii while the rest of us were suffering through that nasty chilly spell in late February.

 

I missed 3 dry days here while in Hawaii for almost 2 weeks.    The best part was missing the multiple snow events.   

 

Unfortunately that was not the end of the snow events here.   

 

I am well aware of what is normal and also well aware of what usually happens in the spring here following a Nina.    

 

Sooooooooo... as I have said many times now... I will take what I can get this spring.    Still the same feeling.   No matter what Jared says.   I know its not going to change any time soon in terms of rainy days.   Every nice day is a gift and needs to planned accordingly.   

[MossMan]

I missed 3 dry days here while in Hawaii for almost 2 weeks. The best part was missing the multiple snow events.

 

Unfortunately that was not the end of the snow events here.

 

I am well aware of what is normal and also well aware of what usually happens in the spring here following a Nina.

 

Sooooooooo... as I have said many times now... I will take what I can get this spring. Still the same feeling. No matter what Jared says. I know its not going to change any time soon in terms of rainy days. Every nice day is a gift and needs to planned accordingly.

It’s been wet...very wet and quite cool. No fun in my book. And it’s still raining like it has been since daybreak. I wish it would shift north or south for everyone in those regions with the apparent massive drought there.

[Phil]

Fact remains... there have been more days with precip to this point in the year than any other year this decade. And there have been multiple late season snow events which has not happened for several years. And just melting off the snow seems like a victory right now.

 

Sooooooooooooooo... I will take what I can get this spring. Normal or not. I will take what I can get this spring. A nice day on Friday and again on Monday sounds nice despite the weekend being wet and unpleasant in between.

 

And I expect it will stay cool and wet through June with a fading Nina.

I could be wrong, but I highly doubt the pattern stays wet/nasty through June. The preconditionings are perfect for an abnormally large degree of pattern variability through the warm season, even if the balance is on the cooler side.

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a fairly dry rain year so far. But nothing extraordinary. Run of the mill as a wise man once said.

[TT-SEA]

Been a fairly dry rain year so far. But nothing extraordinary. Run of the mill as a wise man once said.

Because everywhere in the PNW has exactly the same weather. There are no areas that have been wetter. What happens in Silver Falls must be exactly what everyone is experiencing. Always.

[Front Ranger]

I not misrepresenting anything.   My only statement was that I will take what I can get this spring.

 

I used the local rainfall data to show Jared what has been happening here locally.   Normally we have precip on about 65% of the days in the Jan-Mar period and this year its been almost 80% of the days.     If we had the normal number of days with precip for this area then we would have had roughly another 15 dry days in that period.    That would have been nice.    

 

Its been persistently wet out here... more than usual for this area.   Not in terms of total rainfall but in terms of persistence.   And there have been several late season snow events.   And its been generally cold.  

 

So... I will take what I can get this spring.     Particularly knowing where we are heading over the next couple weeks and probably through June.

 

You're an overreaction machine, my man. Repeating over and over that you "will take what I can get this spring" doesn't further the conversation. No one was disputing that you will take some more nice days.

 

80% of days with some precip in a certain location only tells part of the story, that's all. I'm sure a lot of those days had very light or brief amounts of precip. The fact that this spring has seen WAY less rain than last spring (and less than average) probably is a meaningful stat, too.

 

This isn't a black/white, me vs. you convo. 

[TT-SEA]

You're an overreaction machine, my man. Repeating over and over that you "will take what I can get this spring" doesn't further the conversation. No one was disputing that you will take some more nice days.

 

80% of days with some precip in a certain location only tells part of the story, that's all. I'm sure a lot of those days had very light or brief amounts of precip. The fact that this spring has seen WAY less rain than last spring (and less than average) probably is a meaningful stat, too.

 

This isn't a black/white, me vs. you convo. 

 

 

Its been wetter than normal (and more persistently wet than normal) to the north and east of Seattle. 

 

 

 

 

This is where Randy and I live.     It can be dry in some areas and unusually wet in other areas.   It happens.

 

My comment was only in reference to the tangible weather we have been experiencing out here.   Not some regional comment about the year so far.   

 

Two snow events in 10 days... lots of rainy days in between... and now a couple weeks of heavier rain ahead.   A couple nice days is a welcome gift even if they fall on either side of a weekend.

[Front Ranger]

It’s been wet...very wet and quite cool. No fun in my book. And it’s still raining like it has been since daybreak. I wish it would shift north or south for everyone in those regions with the apparent massive drought there.

 

Yep. 

 

[Front Ranger]

Its been wetter than normal (and more persistently wet than normal) to the north and east of Seattle. 

 

 

 

 

This is where Randy and I live.   

 

My comment was only in reference to the tangible weather we have been experiencing out here.   Not some regional comment about the year so far.   

 

January is not generally considered a spring month, though.

 

See my map above for the region the past 60 days...much drier for the region overall. Even your area has been drier than normal.

[Phil]

Because everywhere in the PNW has exactly the same weather. There are no areas that have been wetter. What happens in Silver Falls must be exactly what everyone is experiencing. Always.

Honestly, as the pattern stands now, it could be much colder/stormier than it currently is. The current pattern is simply an amplification of the climatological wave positions.

 

I think you might have grown accustomed to what was an unusually warm/ridgy regime over the last 5 years.

[Front Ranger]

I could be wrong, but I highly doubt the pattern stays wet/nasty through June. The preconditionings are perfect for an abnormally large degree of pattern variability through the warm season, even if the balance is on the cooler side.

 

Agreed. I don't see a 2010 or 2011 redux on the way.

[TT-SEA]

Honestly, as the pattern stands now, it could be much colder/stormier than it currently is. The current pattern is simply an amplification of the climatological wave positions.

 

I think you might have grown accustomed to what was an unusually warm/ridgy regime over the last 5 years.

 

 

No... last spring was even worse.   It rained almost every day from February - early May.   

 

But this year has been colder with multiple late season snow events which is very common with a Nina.     

 

I would say the same thing in every Nina spring... I will take any nice day that I can get.  

[TT-SEA]

January is not generally considered a spring month, though.

 

See my map above for the region the past 60 days...much drier for the region overall. Even your area has been drier than normal.

 

I have always said that I like focused heavy rain and lots of dry days in between compared to endless light rain and drizzle.  

 

I would have preferred the last two months to be very wet in total resulting from a few major rain events rather than drier than normal overall but with many days of light precipitation.  

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a warmer rain today... its been raining lightly for most of the day but its up to 52 now with a dewpoint of 50.    

[Phil]

[Phil]

I have always said that I like focused heavy rain and lots of dry days in between compared to endless light rain and drizzle.

 

I would have preferred the last two months to be very wet in total resulting from a few major rain events rather than drier than normal overall but with many days of light precipitation.

But again, isn’t that more of a reversion to the norm for your region?

 

The strong, consolidated, N-shifted jet in recent years is quite anomalous in the satellite era reanalysis, and the recent summer ridging/warmth was also highly anomalous.

[TT-SEA]

But again, isn’t that more of a reversion to the norm for your region?

 

The strong, consolidated, N-shifted jet in recent years is quite anomalous in the satellite era reanalysis, and the recent summer ridging/warmth was also highly anomalous.

Lots of days with light rain is normal here in the spring (even more than usual this year). 

 

Does not mean I like it.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I could be wrong, but I highly doubt the pattern stays wet/nasty through June. The preconditionings are perfect for an abnormally large degree of pattern variability through the warm season, even if the balance is on the cooler side.

I'm still thinking May and June will be warmer than normal for the PNW but not as hot as I thought it would be. I think precipitation wise has a greater chance to be wetter than normal.

[Phil]

Uh oh. Models are keying in on another CCKW bifurcation from the aggregate and are slowing down AAM return.

 

Blah. The mid-April warm-up (east of the Rockies) might just be a tease..starting to look like we plunge right back into this crazy cold pattern at the end of April.

 

Might it continue through early May? Or longer?

[TT-SEA]

I'm still thinking May and June will be warmer than normal for the PNW but not as hot as I thought it would be. I think precipitation wise has a greater chance to be wetter than normal.

 

Highly unlikely that May and June are warmer than normal in the PNW in a Nina year.

[Front Ranger]

IIRC, the last time you and I were on the same page was back in January.

 

I thought we were in general agreement for February?

[Front Ranger]

Lots of days with light rain is normal here in the spring (even more than usual this year). 

 

Does not mean I like it.   

 

Yes, but at least for most places, there has been quite a bit of sun/showery type days as well. Much different than "endless drizzle" days.

 

Those days may not go down as dry, but it's not like they were all miserable and soaking wet.

[Phil]

Uh oh. Models are keying in on another CCKW bifurcation from the aggregate and are slowing down AAM return.

 

Blah. The mid-April warm-up (east of the Rockies) might just be a tease..starting to look like we plunge right back into this crazy cold pattern at the end of April.

 

Might it continue through early May? Or longer?

And with the increased wavenumber upon returning from the IO/EHEM excursion and cold vortex biased towards North America again, there’s a possibility that you guys in the coastal PNW/BC area will also experience another round of enhanced storminess and/or a nearby secondary trough anomaly in conjunction with the Canadian vortex.

 

Again, this (return to) North American cold would start towards the end of April, if it happens.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, but at least for most places, there has been quite a bit of sun/showery type days as well. Much different than "endless drizzle" days.

 

Those days may not go down as dry, but it's not like they were all miserable and soaking wet.

 

Great.

 

We have had many days here with drizzle and light rain.   More than usual.   

 

My comment was in regard to the weather that I have been experiencing here.   Still the same sentiment... I will take what I can get.   Any nice day is a gift in a Nina spring.   Lots of rain ahead.   At least the snow is gone!   Baby steps. 

[Phil]

I thought we were in general agreement for February?

Ah, yeah I think so. Honestly, I was so darn busy during the second half of February that I almost stopped following weather altogether.

 

I know March was an easy forecast for just about everyone..it ended up being a perfect fit to post-SSW climatology. One of the best matches you could get.

[weatherfan2012]

And with the increased wavenumber upon returning from the IO/EHEM excursion and cold vortex biased towards North America again, there’s a possibility that you guys in the coastal PNW/BC area will also experience another round of enhanced storminess and/or a nearby secondary trough anomaly in conjunction with the Canadian vortex.

Again, this (return to) North American cold would start towards the end of April, if it happens.

sounds like a crapfest spring this year for most of the nation.seems our classic spring warm weather happen in February

[Phil]

Highly unlikely that May and June are warmer than normal in the PNW in a Nina year.

I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that you see at least one prolonged (5+ day) stretch of abnormally warm/dry weather during that timeframe.

 

The La Niña background state actually terminated with the February SSW. Now it’s just a bunch of mixed up jigsaw puzzle pieces trying to reorganize (and not making much progress so far). As of today, it’s a combination of pure MJO/intraseasinal tropical forcings and quasi-stable extratropical phase locking.

[TT-SEA]

I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that you see at least one prolonged (5+ day) stretch of abnormally warm/dry weather during that timeframe.

 

The La Niña background state actually terminated with the February SSW. Now it’s just a bunch of mixed up jigsaw puzzle pieces trying to reorganize (and not making much progress so far). As of today, it’s a combination of pure MJO/intraseasinal tropical forcings and quasi-stable extratropical phase locking.

 

 

Wow... 5 nice days!     

 

Actually... seeing a short stretch of hot weather is very common in Nina spring.    Surrounded by weeks of total crap.   

[WeatherArchive]

Sometimes it can happen that way. Our transition from winter —> summer does occur more quickly than the transition from summer —> winter, which takes forever.

 

On occasion, we’ll just skip spring altogether and flip right into summer. Nothing sucks more than transitioning from highs in the 40s/50s to highs in the 80s/90s over just a period of 3-4 weeks.

 So it's from the heater to the air?

[Phil]

According to the satellite data, it was the coldest March in the Arctic since 1995.

 

http://images.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/TLT_v40/time_series/RSS_TS_channel_TLT_Northern%20Polar_Land_And_Sea_v04_0.txt

[Jesse]

It’s amazing how much time people spend here complaining about what is basically climo.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the region get a solid soaking today.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Highly unlikely that May and June are warmer than normal in the PNW in a Nina year.

Like I said I don't think it will be as hot as I thought it would be but still warmer than normal. The basic background state we've been in isn't just going to flip like that. It's going to be a slow progression out of it if it does eventually happen.

[MossMan]

It’s amazing how much time people spend here complaining about what is basically climo.

Let’s meet up at my house and have a picnic! Perhaps play a little tennis!