April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[jcmcgaffey]

Article from komo on olympics rainfall. 14” in one day and then 12” a few days later would be incredible. Odd to think it was not from a massive downpour. http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/uw-research-finds-rainfall-over-olympic-mountains-more-complex-than-originally-believed

[wx_statman]

The models have been hinting that this is going to be a double-barrelled low pressure system. These give the models fits and the exact track is more unpredictable than normal. From past experience these type of systems also track more closer to the coastline as it heads northward.

 

Some parts of the Willamette Valley are higher than 330 feet. The 330 foot map was created to give a good representation of winds where it can cause havoc. When it comes to wind storms, trees and higher structures above ground are the most prone to windy conditions. The map will likely verify from a sustained wind standpoint.

 

My guess is that the 330 foot (100 meter) layer is there because it represents the uppermost end of the surface boundary layer (the lowest sub-layer of the planetary boundary layer). Usually it's even lower than that, between 10-50 meters. Friction dominates in this layer, so it will mechanically slow down any wind that tries to mix in from above. So the 100 meter wind will never translate to the surface because of that friction. The parts of the Willamette Valley that are higher than 330 feet still experience friction in the lowest 100 meters above ground level, for the same reasons. 

[TT-SEA]

Ending up warmer and drier than anticipated down here today. Lots of sunbreaks. Dry pattern continues.

 

Raining up here all day... and cold.  

[Geos]

Not a very nice day for sure. Hanging around 45 right now. 

[wx_statman]

13 in Omaha and 17 in Kansas City this morning. Latest since 1881 and 1920, respectively. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My guess is that the 330 foot (100 meter) layer is there because it represents the uppermost end of the surface boundary layer (the lowest sub-layer of the planetary boundary layer). Usually it's even lower than that, between 10-50 meters. Friction dominates in this layer, so it will mechanically slow down any wind that tries to mix in from above. So the 100 meter wind will never translate to the surface because of that friction. The parts of the Willamette Valley that are higher than 330 feet still experience friction in the lowest 100 meters above ground level, for the same reasons.

I get what you're saying. Here is what the 12z EURO has to say about wind speeds for both at 10m and 100m (330 feet) for Saturday during the windiest period. As you can see what it shows at 10m has a lot to be left desired and is seriously lacking in reality compared to what the 330 feet map shows. If we just look at the 10m map we wouldn't even know windy weather was coming. I like to use the 330 feet map because I feel it's closer to what the actual sustained winds will be like.

 

[wx_statman]

I get what you're saying. Here is what the 12z EURO has to say about wind speeds for both at 10m and 100m (330 feet) for Saturday during the windiest period. As you can see what it shows at 10m has a lot to be left desired and is seriously lacking in reality compared to what the 330 feet map shows. If we just look at the 10m map we wouldn't even know windy weather was coming. I like to use the 330 feet map because I feel it's closer to what the actual sustained winds will be like.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018040412_75_484_227.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018040412_75_484_334.png

 

You're thinking 60 mph sustained winds on the N. Oregon coast? I think the 10 meter map is more likely - 40 mph. 

[Front Ranger]

March was pretty nice, I thought.

 

Yup. If you like drier than normal with more sunshine than normal. Much like February.

 

Tim's post made it sound like he's enduring an awful spring, so he'll take what he can get. 

[TT-SEA]

Yup. If you like drier than normal with more sunshine than normal. Much like February.

 

Tim's post made it sound like he's enduring an awful spring, so he'll take what he can get. 

 

Even if March was statistically drier than normal... it still rained on 22 out of 31 days here.   And it was colder than normal.

 

So seeing a day that is warmer than normal and dry coming up on Friday feels like a treat.   Particularly since it was dumping rain all of Easter and then turned to snow which took until today to disappear in pouring, cold rain.    

 

So yes... I will take what I can get this spring.     I don't care what you think that sounds like.   Spring is miserable here most of the time so that statement actually applies to most years.

[TT-SEA]

Dry days have been more rare than usual out here in the Snoqualmie Valley in 2018.    Its been pretty miserable overall.    This is the most number of days with precipitation from Jan 1 - Apr 4 since at least 2009 when they started tracking rainfall data on this site.    

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Even if March was statistically drier than normal... it still rained on 22 out of 31 days here.   And it was colder than normal.

 

So seeing a day that is warmer than normal and dry coming up on Friday feels like a treat.   Particularly since it was dumping rain all of Easter and then turned to snow which took until today to disappear in pouring, cold rain.    

 

So yes... I will take what I can get this spring.     I don't care what you think that sounds like.   Spring is miserable here most of the time so that statement actually applies to most years.

 

Seems rather subjective. Especially since March - May average less than half the amount of precip as November - January.

[Front Ranger]

Dry days have been more rare than usual out here in the Snoqualmie Valley in 2018.    Its been pretty miserable overall.    This is the most number of days with precipitation from Jan 1 - Apr 4 since at least 2009 when they started tracking rainfall data on this site.    

 

 

 

 

So when it's wetter than normal (2014-17!!!), all that matters is the total precip, nuff said.

 

But when it's drier than normal, deeper analysis is need to illustrate just how miserable it's been. 

[TT-SEA]

So when it's wetter than normal (2014-17!!!), all that matters is the total precip, nuff said.

 

But when it's drier than normal, deeper analysis is need to illustrate just how miserable it's been. 

 

 

No deeper analysis needed.   Everyone living out here intimately understands the reality of the persistent rain illustrated above.   Days with rain is the most important factor in determining how miserable its been for me.   Always has been.     

 

I respond with the extreme rainfall totals in the 2014-17 period when people are whining about drought. 

 

How many times have I said that August 2015 was a very wet month but was very enjoyable because it was so sunny and the rain was focused on 3 days?    Both the number of days with rain and the rainfall totals matter... for different reasons.

 

Its been very wet over the last 4 years in the Seattle area (FACT)... and also a winter like 2015-16 and spring like 2017 were particularly miserable because of the persistence of the precipitation.  

 

Its why I said that I will take what I can get this spring.   Dry days have been very rare here in 2018 (through April 4th)  More than any year this decade.   Just a fact.

[Front Ranger]

SEA just finished a 7 day streak with no measurable precip.

 

That followed a 6 day streak in mid March.

 

Overall, 20 such days since Mar 1.

[TT-SEA]

Jared always spins what people say.

 

People complain about drought... I point out the FACT that its been very wet up here since 2014.   I said we are due for some drier than normal years in the Seattle area.   Or maybe our annual average rainfall just jumped up by 8 inches for good?   Because statistically it does not make sense to run way above normal for rainfall every year... unless that is the new normal.   I did not say the last 4 years have been entirely miserable.   But they have been very wet. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA just finished a 7 day streak with no measurable precip.

 

That followed a 6 day streak in mid March.

 

Overall, 20 such days since Mar 1.

 

And I said that "I will take what I can get this spring" based on the simple fact that the number of days with precipitation here in the Snoqualmie Valley so far this year is the highest its been this decade (Jan 1 - Apr 4).

 

And its been cold with several late season snow events.  

 

See above.   Look at the data.  Its just a fact.   And its why I will gladly take a warm, dry Friday and Monday even if it means rain all weekend.   Because dry days have been very rare in 2018 compared to the other years this decade here.    

[Front Ranger]

PDX has seen 30 days with no measurable precip since Feb 1. Last year, they saw 18 such days over the same period.

[Front Ranger]

And I said that "I will take what I can get this spring" based on the simple fact that the number of days with precipitation here in the Snoqualmie Valley so far this year is the highest its been this decade (Jan 1 - Apr 4).

 

See above.   Look at the data.  Its just a fact.   And its why I will gladly take a warm, dry Friday and Monday even if it means rain all weekend.   Because dry days have been very rare in 2018 compared to the other years this decade here.    

 

But you'll gladly use SEA stats when they fit your narrative.

[TT-SEA]

PDX has seen 30 days with no measurable precip since Feb 1. Last year, they saw 18 such days over the same period.

 

 

I don't care if has not rained at all at PDX in 2018.  

 

For the Snoqualmie Valley... no year this decade has had this many days with precip to this point in the year.    That is why I said that "I will take what I can get this spring".   

 

Notice the "I" in that statement?    I did not say "we".    

[TT-SEA]

But you'll gladly use SEA stats when they fit your narrative.

 

Its been very wet out here as well over the last 4 years.    SEA is a major station to illustrate the extreme wetness of 2014-17 beyond just the foothills.  

[Front Ranger]

Its been very wet out here as well over the last 4 years.    SEA is a major station to illustrate the extreme wetness of 2014-17 beyond just the foothills.  

 

It can also be used to to illustrate how it's been a dry winter/late spring with lots of dry days beyond the foothills.

 

And you use SEA stats all the time, not just when painting a regional picture.

[TT-SEA]

It can also be used to to illustrate how it's been a dry winter/late spring with lots of dry days beyond the foothills.

 

And you use SEA stats all the time, not just when painting a regional picture.

 

What is your point here?   

 

Its been persistently wet out here.  More so than any year this decade to this point.  Its been cold.   There have been several snow events since the middle of February including a significant snow in April.   Vegetation now appears to actually be behind schedule and just melting snow seems like a victory.  

 

I will take what I can get this spring.    Are you arguing that I am wrong about my own feeling?      

 

Jared argues just to argue.   All the time.  

[MossMan]

What an awful weather day...was pleasant in Moses Lake this morning though! And snowing at the top of the pass, that was also nice...but it took way too long to get from Bellevue to Stanwood early this afternoon since people don’t understand wet roads and driving. 43 and rain currently at home...ugly...like the majority of the last 3+ months minus the Feb snow and cold.

[seattleweatherguy]

65 Friday then huge windstorm interesting

[TT-SEA]

65 Friday then huge windstorm interesting

Huge windstorm is pretty unlikely unless you are at the coast and even there it's doubtful.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You're thinking 60 mph sustained winds on the N. Oregon coast? I think the 10 meter map is more likely - 40 mph.

For the coast it's always trickier to forecast because there's a sharp cutoff between the fast winds and slower winds. It could be blowing hurricane force winds just offshore and a bit inland barely anything. I think somewhere inbetween lies the right outcome. What fascinates me about the Oregon coastline is all the different microclimates it has and while some areas are prone to high winds others are sheltered from it. The locals probably have a better idea of where the high wind spots are usually at.

[seattleweatherguy]

Huge windstorm is pretty unlikely unless you are at the coast and even there it's doubtful.

So the gfs is heading towards the Euro?

[Esquimalt]

So the gfs is heading towards the Euro?

Well the ICON, 06Z GFS, 12Z CMC and to a certain extent the 12Z Euro all showed favourable tracks.  The NAM and the other GFS runs all favoured a track where the low stalls and weakens off of north-west VI, which would probably not be the greatest wind producer for many of us.  

[Front Ranger]

What is your point here?   

 

Its been persistently wet out here.  More so than any year this decade to this point.  Its been cold.   There have been several snow events since the middle of February including a significant snow in April.   Vegetation now appears to actually be behind schedule and just melting snow seems like a victory.  

 

I will take what I can get this spring.    Are you arguing that I am wrong about my own feeling?      

 

Jared argues just to argue.   All the time.  

 

I made a couple points.

 

1) You like to use stats convenient to your narrative, which means whether you're talking about your backyard or SEA, or the region is often by design.

 

2) What you've experienced has been quite a bit different than SEA, PDX, and most the region.

 

No reason to view these points so confrontationally. 

[Jesse]

What an awful weather day...was pleasant in Moses Lake this morning though! And snowing at the top of the pass, that was also nice...but it took way too long to get from Bellevue to Stanwood early this afternoon since people don’t understand wet roads and driving. 43 and rain currently at home...ugly...like the majority of the last 3+ months minus the Feb snow and cold.

Why would anyone want to live somewhere where they consider the normal weather to be so “ugly”?

[TT-SEA]

I made a couple points.

 

1) You like to use stats convenient to your narrative, which means whether you're talking about your backyard or SEA, or the region is often by design.

 

2) What you've experienced has been quite a bit different than SEA, PDX, and most the region.

 

No reason to view these points so confrontationally. 

 

You do this all the time.   Its been noted on here by many people.   Its a dishonest debate style.  

 

I made a statement about what I was thinking based on the weather that I have been experiencing here.    All your statements were completely meaningless to me... and my feeling on the situation.  

 

I will take what I can get this spring... even if it means the nice days are on Friday and Monday and the weekend is wet and unpleasant in between.

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

Today = ugly in my book. Just like a 95 degree sunny day = ugly in your book. We all have opinions.

You said the last 3+ months have been mostly ugly, and by that I am assuming you mean 40s and rain.

 

40s and rain is basically our average winter weather. 95 and sunny certainly isn’t our average summer wx.....yet.

[ShawniganLake]

Cold and wet today. 42/37 with 2/3” of rain. Currently down to 38 with light rain.

 

Wettest day here since Jan 29th.

[Jesse]

Cold and wet today. 42/37 with 2/3” of rain. Currently down to 38 with light rain.

 

Wettest day here since Jan 29th.

 

We had some morning rain down here, then it became partly to mostly cloudy and close to 60 this afternoon.

[ShawniganLake]

We had some morning rain down here, then it became partly to mostly cloudy and close to 60 this afternoon.

Quite a difference.

 

Coldest afternoon high here since March 2nd.

[Phil]

I can’t believe it, but I’m actually rooting for some spring warmth now. This never-ending winter stuff is becoming very redundant.

 

(OT) NYC Central Park observed 5.5” of snow on 4/2, and they might see another 4-8” on 4/7. Or, it slides south and nails us instead. Either way..lol. Then possibly a third storm arrives the following week. Lordy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Took the afternoon off and went for a drive. Nice afternoon.

[Phil]

La Niña/IO forcing going to work on the d11-15 12z EPS.

 

[Jesse]

La Niña/IO forcing going to work on the d11-15 12z EPS.

 

Love it!

 

The Euro has definitely been going good places in the LR lately.