3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Money]

euro is north according to american forums

[Money]

.5 QPF or so. Went from DAB 12z to .5 QPF 0z

 

Confidence growing for a 5-6+ inch storm

[Tom]

00z Euro...trending NW as well...here is the comparison

 

12z Today vs 00z Tonight

 

[Money]

That's a huge shift NW for being so close.

 

Can the NAM pull one off?

[Tom]

Euro is doing the same thing the GFS was showing...sending a rapidly intensifying system due east from St. Louis (996mb) to S IN (990mb) in six hours.  Naturally, physics would send this more ENE.  Man, the Euro absolutely bombs this storm out from a 996mb near STL to 975mb near the east coast.  That's what we call bombogenesis (technically its 24 mb in 24 hours)

[Tom]

Certainly Money, NAM has the most natural approach to a rapidly intensifying system.  It's not like this is a CO Low that maintains its strength while heading east...this baby just explodes in MO.

[Tom]

LOT probably will wait till the 06z runs before issuing any headlines/watches.  They may wait for another suite of runs.  Alright, I'm hitting the sack...adios.

[midwest buildit]

i just cant help to compare to the last system. euro was way south, gfs was south, nam was only slightly north. and the heavy snow fell in between the gfs and nam but closer to the nam on the second wave we got...

[ChicagoToSeattle]

Whatever blew through Seattle today was intense -- not your typical PNW storm. We had lightning and ominous clouds (like a Midwest storm) if that's what is coming then I could see an intense storm on the horizon. Hopefully enough to break the Chicago snowfall record

[DominicR]

So NAM went a bit south but GFS still came in with more QPF. 6 inch in far NE IL.

[Sciascia]

LOT went warning for 4-8 inches.

[DominicR]

WRF:

 

[Geos]

Looks like I will be on the fringe of this thing now. Only 1-3" in the grid here and < 2" in Racine where I work.

 

Konrad showing heaviest from city, south.

[East Dubzz]

I see the HRRR has gone weaker and south..

[DominicR]

Looks like I will be on the fringe of this thing now. Only 1-3" in the grid here and

 

Konrad showing heaviest from city, south.

 

You will get more than that I am sure.

[Money]

I see the HRRR has gone weaker and south..

 

You mean the RAP? HRRR hasnt updated in awhile.

[Madtown]

well according to locals and mkx looking for 1".

[East Dubzz]

You mean the RAP? HRRR hasnt updated in awhile.

I think I'm looking at the 09z HRRR

[Money]

Only goes up to 8z HRRR here: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/

 

RAP is south and weaker but it's initializing the L too far south.

[Madtown]

just not our year dubbz and money

[DominicR]

Yikes NAM much weaker and SE.

[Sciascia]

American going all storm cancel right now. LOT may have been too bold doing a warning instead of a safer advisory.

[Tony]

NAM initialized 2mb weaker than the current obs. Don't know if this will have any affect later on as this system develops.

[Sciascia]

Silence after a bad model run always feels so unnerving. Like all hope is lost lol.

[Tony]

NAM has been the only model trending south while GFS and Euro have trended north. I know the models have had been bad this year but you would think they could get their act together within 12hrs of a storm. Everyone is just waiting for the GFS to roll before jumping ship!

[Tony]

A local MET's take on the NAM:

 

"I'll mostly stick with 4-7" locally to 8" for the Chicago metro. The far north and northwest areas will likely be lower than that but I don't think the cutoff will be as sharp as what the 12z NAM showed."
 

[DominicR]

Let's not get to carried away. I had my weenie mode on but NAM was ludicrous. It looks more in line with EURO/GFS.

[Sciascia]

SREF ranges from 5-21" here. Quite the range lol.

[indianajohn]

so we can rule out last nights NAM snowmaggedon? would of loved to break the snow record with an epic storm lie that.

[Sciascia]

Someone's saying the low is sinking south. Who's got pressure falls?

[East Dubzz]

Someone's saying the low is sinking south. Who's got pressure falls?

Can't post a map, but pressure falls would indicate it going south some..

[Tony]

Here is the map

 

[Sciascia]

Here is the map

Thanks Tony. I'll say I'm glad I've gotta head to work, because hopefully by 5pm, we should have a clearer picture at how this shakes out. ATM, not looking great for anything above 4" in these parts.

[Sciascia]

Can't wait to read Tom's optimism later. He always seems to have some, haha.

[midwest buildit]

Man this place went silent. Lol

[Geos]

Here is the map

 

In Oklahoma... that is a shift south.

 

So far no changes to the grids.

[DominicR]

Man this place went silent. Lol

 

New runs are depressing but NMM keeps us alive...

[indianajohn]

so looking  at that run what are the ratios going to be?

[DominicR]

so looking  at that run what are the ratios going to be?

 

70:1

[Tom]

@ Sciascia, no optimism over here.   Overnight run's were pretty disappointing.  If height falls are coming in south then heaviest snows will be around Joliet area and points south.  It's too bad, this will probably be the last storm I'll be able to enjoy this year before heading out to AZ.  I think 3-6" will be all we get.