3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Tony]

LOT's take on the 12z data so far.....

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
DISCUSSION

1234 PM CDT

WINTER STORM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM.
SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL.
TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST
AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE
AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN
COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH. 
 

[Geos]

EURO. Some of it is rain though.

 

[midwest buildit]

screw it. im gonna say precip heads a little north and over performs.  my area gets 7-10".

[East Dubzz]

Looking like a very minimum event here for both rain and snow. Will put out the gauge today though, just to see what I end up getting for precip. I'm guessing under .10"..

[Geos]

EURO has most of Chicagoland at or slightly above freezing still at 6z.

Going to be sloppy initially for sure.

[Tom]

12z Euro with a slight NW shift...

[Tony]

screw it. im gonna say precip heads a little north and over performs.  my area gets 7-10".

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

 

DISCUSSION

 

1234 PM CDT 

 

LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING

A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS

OVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY IN

LINE WITH GOING FORECAST

[Tony]

Whatever....getting tired of looking at these models hoping for any kind of change. Nowcast time so radar trends will be the way to go and hope for an earlier phase/stronger wetter solution to what models are showing and as we know stranger things have happened before.

[Geos]

Current surface.

 

[Tony]

Pretty much went due north from when it slipped into OK.

[Niko]

Im forecasted for 8-12inches!!

[Tom]

Nikos, your going to come very close to breaking your snow record.  Hope you get it with this one!

[Niko]

Tom...I hope so. Its going to be a close call.

[Madtown]

what is stopping this from spinning up?

[Tom]

PV to the north is stopping it from cutting to far north...

[East Dubzz]

PV to the north is stopping it from cutting to far north...

And exactly why I wasn't so pumped about the PV being around..

[Madtown]

whats new.... looks like maybe a shot at some clipper snow Thurs.....lol

[East Dubzz]

I'm gonna go with a 70% shot of scattered darkness after 9 PM.

[Niko]

Winterstorm Warning now issued for my area for 6-9 inches or more.

[DominicR]

I can't find it but I heard LOT updated warning text calling still 4-8 locally higher.

[Tony]

This does not look half bad. All it would take is a smidge of a north jog and we are in the game. Very tight gardient on the 18z NAM

[midwest buildit]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

302 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

* SNOW RATES...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING

  AND OVERNIGHT.
 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER

  AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MID MORNING.

[Tom]

+1 Tony, even a 25 mile shift NW on the NAM would place most of N IL in the sweet spot and that is not unheard of with this type of system.  This storm is too dynamic to underperform.  Does anyone have the SREF's?  WxBell is not loading up.

[6789]

I am really like what HPC is suggesting 70 % of at least 4", 40% for 8", and a 10 % for 12". This may turn out to be a good one. 

[DominicR]

STL is at 81 degrees. Unbelievable. Hard with such a dynamic system and pretty tight one to to ignore higher potential totals.

[Geos]

Still in the low 40s out there, which is a bit surprising. Even raining in Milwaukee.

 

Wondering if dry air flowing down the lake it what is creating the sharp cut off to the north...?

[Tom]

Upstate NY and New England are going to get crushed by this storm...1-2 Feet of Powder.  Probably will become a Blizzard by then.

[DominicR]

Some Bacardi and a all nighter I think Chicago will do just fine tonight. Hopefully some thunder and lightning. I will broadcast live tonight.

[Tom]

My Grid forecast is calling for 4-7" with heavy snow wording...I would not be surprised to see some LehS with a perfect NNE wind trajectory down the lake towards the early morning hours when 850's start to crash.

[Tom]

I believe evaporation cooling will help lower temps as precip starts to break out initially and encourage a quicker change over to snow.

[DominicR]

My Grid forecast is calling for 4-7" with heavy snow wording...I would not be surprised to see some LehS with a perfect NNE wind trajectory down the lake towards the early morning hours when 850's start to crash.

 

It's gonna be tight but it should stay NW of us Tom. Geos should still flirt with advisory. NW trend def still possible.

[The Snowman]

A very tricky forecast we have here. Multiple variables arguing for a more north track, but models not picking up on the north track means it's all moot. Hopefully now casting can come through for us and deliver those 5"/hour rates the 0z NAM dropped last night

[Geos]

30s are still pretty far north up by Sheboygan.

 

HRRR at 11pm

 

[DominicR]

lol Caplain had 48 degrees Thursday but his 7 day had days wrong. Why don't they do there own 7 day instead of using accuweather.

[East Dubzz]

Lol, we'd be going nuts for a 4-7" event over here... But hey, I'm getting cold air, so I can't complain.......

[Geos]

Newest map from LOT.

 

 

GFS cutting back in MI.

 

[snowman1]

Decided to sit out and grill tonight. 45 degrees here. Hard to believe all the hard work to show all this grass will be gone come morning time.

[MKEstorm]

Rain has changed over to light snow here.

[Geos]

Still in the upper 30s here. Had some rain on the way home, but it dried out completely before I left Kenosha.

[DominicR]

First and final call:
 

RFD: 2"

UGN: 4"

ORD: 5"

MDY: 7"

DTX: 8"