bud2380 Posted April 5, 2018 Report Share Posted April 5, 2018 We've been talking about this for days, so let's get it's own thread here. Snow looks likely for much of the Dakota's, eastern NE, Minnesota, Iowa, WI, and N. Illinois Sunday into Monday. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040512/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png From Sunday into Sunday night, the 05.00z models continue to showthat a short wave trough will eject out of the Central andNorthern Plains. While the surface low is filling, the 800 to500 mb frontogenesis will still tighten along and south of theInterstate 94 corridor. Soundings indicate that the DendriticGrowth Zone could potentially deepen as much as 250 mb at times.This will increase the snow to liquid ratios into the 12-18 to 1.Being this far out, it is surprising how tight the GEFS QPFclustering is for this system. They have QPF ranging from 2 to 6tenths of an inch. With the exception of Clark and Taylorcounties, thinking that much of the area will likely see snowtotals ranging from 3 to 7 inches. The highest snow totalscontinue to look like they will occur west of the MississippiRiver. Like the previous system earlier this week, the ratesduring the day will greatly effect the impacts during the daySunday. When the rates are high, the snow will accumulate on theroads and then melt when the rates are less. Meanwhile, on Sundaynight as the roads cools, the snow will accumulate. This may bewhen the greatest impacts will occur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2018 GFS gets weaker and weaker for the south half of Iowa each run. I'm not completely sad about that. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040518/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 5, 2018 Report Share Posted April 5, 2018 Yeah prolly end up being a 2-4 event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 5, 2018 Report Share Posted April 5, 2018 DMX still talking 6+ for N IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 5, 2018 Report Share Posted April 5, 2018 GFS gets weaker and weaker for the south half of Iowa each run. I'm not completely sad about that. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040518/090/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThat is a monster cutoff here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 5, 2018 Report Share Posted April 5, 2018 Yeah, the weakening trend is there for sure. This thing kinda drops its load in the Dakotas into southern Minnesota and then fills and dries up as it tails away to the ese. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 The morning forecaster at MPX was saying how ratios would be 15:1 or higher and how that could lead to 8”+. The afternoon forecaster said the complete opposite and how ratios would be low. Currently 2-4” in the point for Sunday and still snowing Sunday evening. 3” looks like a safe call here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 DMX still talking 6-7 inches for my area but holding off on headlines for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 The last two runs of the euro have come back sw quite a bit, so the track is now favorable for CR/IC. Unfortunately, the system has also weakened so much our snowfall hasn't inceased any. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 The last two runs of the euro have come back sw quite a bit, so the track is now favorable for CR/IC. Unfortunately, the system has also weakened so much our snowfall hasn't inceased any.What is Euro showing for totals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 What is Euro showing for totals? Two runs ago, the euro had a 6" band from Minneapolis eastward through Wisconsin and into Michigan. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Hmm. I just read DVN's discussion and they are saying this will be a dry snow, with ratios increasing to 16-20 to 1. That's something you don't see too often in April. It's a shame this thing couldn't maintain more strength. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Thanks for the Euro map Hawkeye.DMX hasnt mentioned ratios.16-20:1 would be impressive. Idk if im buying that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 If the euro is right though 2-4/3-5” would be in order for Iowa City and CR. I’m trying to remember the last time I saw 4” or more in April. It’s probably been awhile. That said I have a feeling we’ll end up more like 1-3” here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040612/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 There's a pretty big difference between the models regarding snow placement. The GFS has moved most of the snow up into Minnesota. Meanwhile, the 12z UK has jumped way southwest and now has it from South Dakota through western Iowa, with very little snow from Minneapolis to Dubuque. Last night's euro was in between. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040612/084/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThis would be the 4th time I’ve put the snowblower away for the season. You’d think I would have learned by now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 The 12z Canadian just pulled a UK and moved much of the snow to South Dakota down through western Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 12z Euro moved sw again, although not quite as much as UK/GDPS. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Lookedmore consistent yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Maybe a 2-4 event for IA. Prolly low end advisory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 If it ain’t gonna be big, keep it away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 12z Euro ensemble mean Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Looking more like a turd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Winter Storm Watch hoisted for MN.Appears they may be siding with the GFS judging from where the watch is placed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 Looks like 2-4” here. Would only hit the lower end of that if the Euro verifies. It didn’t do so well with the system earlier this week. Let’s see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 6, 2018 Report Share Posted April 6, 2018 ICON still has a nice strip of 0.50" qpf through CR. The 18z GFS dropped its good snow band down into CR as well, with 0.40". However, as maps above show, other models have only a couple tenths. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 18z GFS doubled qpf for Iowa City/CR area from the 12z run. I was surprised to see the Euro shift so much the past 2 runs. I'd like to see it hold it's intensity longer. I wouldn't mind seeing one last hurrah this weekend before we hopefully get into Spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 00z runs of the NAM, GFS, and ICON all have 0.30-0.40 for the CR/IC area. The 3k nam has 0.20-0.30" and the Canadian 0.20". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 At least models never hyped this thing up here! We might get an inch. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 At least models never hyped this thing up here! We might get an inch. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018040700&fh=60&r=us_c&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018040700&fh=60&r=us_c&dpdt=Yeah I saw that. That's the first model run to show that much so I'm not buying it. I'll never buy any models showing more than an inch for this. It'll be low ratio and sloppy, falling on ~40 degree surfaces. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 We're not getting from this! I think I'm actually finally ready for spring, which basically means that everyone should be ready for spring. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 00z euro Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 https://goo.gl/maps/cYagVL3q6hy This is a pretty well known meth bridge in Lincoln. Whoever forecasted 1-2" for here in the point grid obviously went to this bridge, got meth, smoked it, then wrote the forecast. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 1-3” for Papillion according to point grid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted April 7, 2018 Report Share Posted April 7, 2018 WWA now for my area. 2-4 inches of snow with light icing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 8, 2018 Report Share Posted April 8, 2018 The downward qpf trend continues. The GFS is holding at 0.25-0.30", but the rest of the models have fallen to 0.10-0.20". Full sampling at 00z only dried it out more. By game time, we may be down to an inch. Update: And the 00z euro just dropped us from 2 inches down to 1. Time to get this crap out of here and move on to spring. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2018 Report Share Posted April 8, 2018 Last few runs of the HRRR picking up on some weenie totals right over the metro. Not sure what that’s all about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 8, 2018 Report Share Posted April 8, 2018 I love how precip always dies out right before it reaches Lincoln. 37.8*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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