Summer forecast contest, year three.

[ShawniganLake]

To the contrary, the majority of the stations there appear to be skewed artificially warm by growing UHI.

 

OLM is probably more representative of what the departures would be without UHI.

 

#FakeWarmth

Surely there is more than one station, removed from UHI, that can be referenced on occasion other than just OLM

[Phil]

Shawnigan Lake +4.1F

 

Abbotsford +4.3F

 

Agassiz +3.6F

Exactly..OLM just has the least amount of UHI influence in the Puget Sound/Western WA region (they all have some degree of it).

 

Go to NCDC and calculate the trends at each station.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/city/time-series/USW00024233/tavg/12/1/1941-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1941&lastbaseyear=2017&trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1941&lasttrendyear=2018

 

You can see the variance in the amount of UHI at each station, which changes the climate warming trend uniquely at each location.

[Phil]

Also, keep in mind that some of the stations you listed don’t meet NCDC’s QC standards hence aren’t listed. So be careful when comparing high quality airport stations to lower quality stations elsewhere..the comparisons might not be measurably valid.

[Front Ranger]

Per the infallible WRCC map, most the region is in the +2 to +4 range, which would include OLM on the low end but put SEA as a warm outlier.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Will have plenty of time to post it on the plane.

How was the flight?

[Deweydog]

How was the flight?

Flights to fake vacations are very short.

[Phil]

How was the flight?

Terrible. Crying baby behind me for the full 5hrs, and the charger port was broken so my phone died mid-flight.

 

Figures.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Terrible. Crying baby behind me for the full 5hrs, and the charger port was broken so my phone died mid-flight.

 

Figures.

Battery drained by playing music in the lav while joining the mile high club?

[ShawniganLake]

Terrible. Crying baby behind me for the full 5hrs, and the charger port was broken so my phone died mid-flight.

 

Figures.

Ouch. Thank god our little one has never been a crier.

[Phil]

Battery drained by playing music in the lav while joining the mile high club?

Ha, if only. Playing chess with noise-canceling earbuds in to drown out the baby noise really did a number on it.

 

Ironically I actually beat the computer on the highest level yet, and did it easily despite the uncomfortable circumstances. Must’ve been the air pressure.

[Front Ranger]

Ha, if only. Playing chess with noise-canceling earbuds in to drown out the baby noise really did a number on it.

 

Ironically I actually beat the computer on the highest level yet, and did it easily despite the uncomfortable circumstances. Must’ve been the air pressure.

 

Or the lower humidity? 

 

It's well known that Bobby Fischer's greatest weakness was playing in DPs above 70.

[GHweatherChris]

Still no calculations showing current standings? Asking for a friend....

[Deweydog]

So is this thing still a thing?

[Jesse]

Rankings and meatloaf now, mom!!!!

[Deweydog]

Rankings and meatloaf now, mom!!!!

[Jesse]

Ew!! The medicine I make tastes kinda bad!

[Deweydog]

Ew!! The medicine I make tastes kinda bad!

I've finally learned my lesson! Ninos are BAD!

[Jesse]

I've finally learned my lesson! Ninos are BAD!

Good! I await your conciliatory PM.

[Deweydog]

Good! I await your conciliatory PM.

I'll randomly respond to one of the 37.

[Jesse]

I'll randomly respond to one of the 37.

Either someone hacked my account recently or you are a fibber McGee!

[Deweydog]

Either someone hacked my account or you are a fibber McGee!

It was a best guesstimate.

[Jesse]

It was a best guesstimate.

The nice thing about the PM reference tactic is that you can make it sound like you’ve been getting bombarded by an unhinged cold freak and there is no way for anyone to fact check otherwise. A lawyer’s dream defense!

[Deweydog]

The nice thing about the PM reference tactic is that you can make it sound like you’ve been getting bombarded by an unhinged cold freak and there is no way for anyone to fact check otherwise. A lawyer’s dream defense!

For the record I haven't received one from you in quite some time.

 

Also, I don't think anyone else gives two shits.

[Jesse]

For the record I haven't received one from you in quite some time.

 

Also, I don't think anyone else gives two shits.

You must. Probably a lot more than 37 PM references over the last several months.

 

It’s alright though. Karing isn’t always kreepy.

[Deweydog]

You must. Probably a lot more than 37 PM references over the last several months.

 

It’s alright though. Karing isn’t always kreepy.

Been a hot July!

[Jesse]

Been a hot July!

The sun rose today too!

[Guest happ]

I didn't offer an opinion on summer but would have not predicted what the West just went though. Damnation fires everywhere in our new climate reality  

[Kayla]

Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

 

SEA:  +5.0

 

OLM:  +2.8

 

PDX:  +4.8

 

CQT:  +5.5

 

DEN:  +1.1

 

DCA:  +0.9

 

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.

 

Yet BZN pulled off another monthly negative anomaly with -1.9 for July. June was also -1.9F. May has been the only month this year that has been above average.

 

It's kind of a strange anomaly when you look at the country as a whole. Though it does seem like northern plains/upper midwest clippers are becoming more common over the past several years during all seasons. It would seem central and eastern Montana is just east enough to see those same effects.

[Kayla]

Here's a map of year to date anomalies highlighting my observation above. Also points to the four corner high being stronger this year.

 

[Phil]

Yet BZN pulled off another monthly negative anomaly with -1.9 for July. June was also -1.9F. May has been the only month this year that has been above average.

 

It's kind of a strange anomaly when you look at the country as a whole. Though it does seem like northern plains/upper midwest clippers are becoming more common over the past several years during all seasons. It would seem central and eastern Montana is just east enough to see those same effects.

I’m still interested. I’ve just been busy enjoying my vacation and haven’t really been hyper-focused on weather/climate stuff as usual.

 

I fly back home tomorrow, and then drive down to FL/GA on the 8th, where I’ll be until the 19th.

[Front Ranger]

When looking at July as a whole, there appears to be a strip of slightly below-normal temperatures running northwest-to-southeast from Montana to Florida.  It just happens that none of the stations in the contest fell within that area.

 

It's neither as large nor as intense as the surrounding areas of positive anomalies, meaning the country as a whole experienced what will probably be recorded as yet another record hot month.

 

 

Very unlikely.

 

A pretty large portion of the country was near or below normal. If you look at record hot months for the U.S., there's usually very few areas below or near normal. And the blowtorching was actually more intense and widespread than this past July.

[Front Ranger]

Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

 

SEA:  +5.0

 

OLM:  +2.8

 

PDX:  +4.8

 

CQT:  +5.5

 

DEN:  +1.1

 

DCA:  +0.9

 

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.

 

It's funny how there have been more and more comments on here recently about how NOW global warming is so obvious, because of what's been observed locally in the PNW in recent years.

 

Of course, nothing has changed about the trend in global temps, and back in 2012 (when the globe was slightly cooler) the U.S. saw their warmest summer and warmest year on record - but I guess it takes local weather to make global warming hit home. 

[Jesse]

It's funny how there have been more and more comments on here recently about how NOW global warming is so obvious, because of what's been observed locally in the PNW in recent years.

 

Of course, nothing has changed about the trend in global temps, and back in 2012 (when the globe was slightly cooler) the U.S. saw their warmest summer and warmest year on record - but I guess it takes local weather to make global warming hit home.

Must be hard to be such a bastion of rationality in a sea of fools.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Seems like no one cares about this contest anymore, possibly because everyone busted so low on the Western stations, but here are the official July numbers for anyone that's interested:

 

SEA: +5.0

 

OLM: +2.8

 

PDX: +4.8

 

CQT: +5.5

 

DEN: +1.1

 

DCA: +0.9

 

Always glad to see hard evidence that the climate isn't actually warming.

I predicted a hot July out West and I think I did good but I underestimated the roast for CQT. Here are my predictions versus what ended up happening.

 

SEA: +4.0 +5.0 = -1.0

 

OLM: +3.8 +2.8 = +1.0

 

PDX: +4.2 +4.8 = -0.6

 

CQT: +3.5 +5.5 = -2.0

 

DEN: +1.5 +1.1 = +0.4

 

DCA: -1.8 +0.9 = -2.7

 

I was within 1.0 off on 4/6 locations. The only real prediction I'm disappointed in was DCA, I was well off there.

[Front Ranger]

Must be hard to be such a bastion of rationality in a sea of fools.

Your words, not mine. It was just an observation.

 

Was it not accurate?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’m still interested. I’ve just been busy enjoying my vacation and haven’t really been hyper-focused on weather/climate stuff as usual.

 

I fly back home tomorrow, and then drive down to FL/GA on the 8th, where I’ll be until the 19th.

I'll try and calculate where everybody is at through July. I have some time the next 2 days in case you can't get to it.

[Front Ranger]

I'll try and calculate where everybody is at through July. I have some time the next 2 days in case you can't get to it.

 

Go for it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Go for it!

Here are the unofficial standings after the first 2 months. I calculated everybody's error for the 6 locations and added them up. The 1st number is for June and the 2nd is for July incase everybody wanted to know how well they did each month. I added them together to get the current standings. The smaller your number the better you did. Everybody did better in June than in July. Still one month to go so still anybodys ballgame.

 

1)Frontal Snowsquall -6.0 + -7.7 = -13.7

2)TT-SEA -6.4 + -11.1 = -17.5

3)Phil -8.5 + -10.05= -18.55

4)Jesse -5.0 + -13.8 = -18.8

5)ShawiganLake -8.3 + -10.8 = -19.1

6)Scott -7.2 + -12.4 = -19.6

7)BLI snowman -10.5+ -11.3 = -21.8

8)Front Ranger -7.0 + -18.1 = -25.1

9)Mr Marine Layer -11.5+ -17.8 = -29.3

10)Deweydog -10.8+ -20.1 = -30.9

[TT-SEA]

Here are the unofficial standings after the first 2 months. I calculated everybody's error for the 6 locations and added them up. The 1st number is for June and the 2nd is for July incase everybody wanted to know how well they did each month. I added them together to get the current standings. The smaller your number the better you did. Everybody did better in June than in July. Still one month to go so still anybodys ballgame.

 

1)Frontal Snowsquall -6.0 + -7.7 = -13.7

2)TT-SEA -6.4 + -11.1 = -17.5

3)Phil -8.5 + -10.05= -18.55

4)Jesse -5.0 + -13.8 = -18.8

5)ShawiganLake -8.3 + -10.8 = -19.1

6)Scott -7.2 + -12.4 = -19.6

7)BLI snowman -10.5+ -11.3 = -21.8

8)Front Ranger -7.0 + -18.1 = -25.1

9)Mr Marine Layer -11.5+ -17.8 = -29.3

10)Deweydog -10.8+ -20.1 = -30.9

 

Thanks for taking the time to do this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Thanks for taking the time to do this.

You're welcome. If Phil or anybody else wants to check these numbers feel free. Did it quickly and had to correct some numbers.