May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

The strong southern branch of the jet is the killer next week. You can watch it actively push away the early week trough on both the 12z GFS and Euro, as it wraps around a cutoff low way to the south.

[Deweydog]

No, but definitely not what we want to see if we’re hoping to get some significant rainfall before mid month.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M3X_ZpL_Hxc

[Phil]

Some of the worst model analysis I’ve ever seen in here today.

 

The 12z GFS/GEFS and EPS/GEPS are plenty troughy through D11-15. There is a brief hiatus between wave cycles, but that was always expected. We’ve been talking about it for a week.

[Deweydog]

Some of the worst model analysis I’ve ever seen in here today.

 

The 12z GFS/GEFS and EPS/GEPS are plenty troughy through D11-15. There is a brief hiatus between wave cycles, but that was always expected. We’ve been talking about it for a week.

Phil drops a d****** truth bomb from well above above the fray!

[Phil]

Looks like our ThreeWeekMegablast June edition might not pan out after all.

The 12z EPS is 2011-lite in the long range.

 

Relax.

 

[Jesse]

[Phil]

Waaaaaah

Your expectations are set too high.

 

You’re getting 3 weeks of modest summer troughing this time, not some sequel to 2011. Enjoy it before ridging returns for late June and July.

[Geos]

Definitely looking wetter from Seattle northward through Tuesday am

 

[Jesse]

Figured the personal attacks from Phil were coming sooner rather than later. He doesn’t do well when his forecasts don’t pan out...

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Figured the personal attacks from Phil were coming sooner rather than later. He doesn’t do well when his forecasts don’t pan out...

 

I think he nailed it.    Troughy period started right on schedule.     And will probably continue in general through mid-June.    He did say there would be breaks... such as the one coming for the next two days before it crashes again.  

[BLI snowman]

No dummy, it's Tim making it warm in the PNW. Phil just makes it warm on the east coast.

 

2014-2078

 

All warm and wet at SEA.

[Jesse]

I'm expecting late October-style jet activity in June. I'm sure I'm being realistic and it will happen.

My point was that’s when we will see our next rainfall.

[Jesse]

I think he nailed it. Troughy period started right on schedule. And will probably continue in general through mid-June. He did say there would be breaks... such as the one coming for the next two days before it crashes again.

The next 7-10 days looks mostly above average. I realize that fits your definition of troughy though.

[Deweydog]

My point was that’s when we will see our next rainfall.

Yikes!

[Jesse]

Yikes!

Have a little patience...

[TT-SEA]

The next 7-10 days looks mostly above average. I realize that fits your definition of troughy though.

 

It fits the standard definition as well.    As Phil has pointed out. 

 

Just not as wet as you want so you are anxious.  

[Jesse]

It fits the standard definition as well. As Phil has pointed out.

 

Just not as wet as you want so you are anxious.

So troughing means slightly above average temps....and ridging means well above average temps?

[TT-SEA]

Definitely troughy this week.    Phil did not make a prediction on rainfall.     Some troughs are just not that wet in the warm season.    The problem this week might be that there is too much troughing for it to be wet up here.

 

[TT-SEA]

So troughing means slightly above average temps....and ridging means well above average temps?

 

That has been the case the last few years during the warm season... particularly in the Puget Sound region.

 

Its very troughy this week.    But the temperatures have been about average up here.  

 

Phil was spot on with his prediction that troughing to return in a big way towards the end of the month.   It was a great call.

[MossMan]

12Z GFS shows many troughs fighting to get into the PNW at the same time in the long range...

 

Could be a dreamy summer for Jesse!

[BLI snowman]

I'm expecting late October-style jet activity in June. I'm sure I'm being realistic and it will happen.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0606.php

[Deweydog]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0606.php

Windstorm pattern!

[Jesse]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0606.php

That was an awesome year in so many ways.

[jakeinthevalley]

Well, it looks like the drinking water situation for us down in Salem is going to stretch on for the immediate future.

 

I would hate to be a business owner that relies on city water for operations.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, here is the latest 12z EPS 15 day PNA forecast. There's a strong signal for some ridging to return next week but it doesn't last long as a troughier pattern returns.

 

[Jesse]

Shower incoming!!

 

#nevermindphilwasright

[Phil]

Figured the personal attacks from Phil were coming sooner rather than later. He doesn’t do well when his forecasts don’t pan out...

Did Tim/HeatSquall hack your account?

 

None of the modeling shows a return to warmth/ridging outside of a few days. I’m not sure what you’re upset about.

[TT-SEA]

Shower incoming!!

 

#nevermindphilwasright

Phil was right. He did not make a prediction on rainfall though.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny. Nice day.

 

I’m not sure if any stations keep stats on hours of sunshine around southern Vancouver Island, but I can’t imagine this month not being a record.

[Phil]

Phil was right. He did not make a prediction on rainfall though.

I’ll never make rainfall predictions for the PNW. Much too complicated for me with the gazillion microclimates and wandering ULLs.

[ShawniganLake]

I see Nanaimo is reporting a thunderstorm, which isn’t too far from where I’m at in Duncan currently.

[Phil]

When Tim and I agree on something, it’s probably a safe bet that you’re wrong. Just saying.

[TT-SEA]

When Tim and I agree on something, it’s probably a safe bet that you’re wrong. Just saying.

 

Hard to argue that we did not enter a troughy pattern this week.    Its just not delivering the results he wanted... so you are feeling his wrath now.  

[Phil]

Gonna be crazy in here when the torch returns from late June thru mid July.

[Jesse]

Hard to argue that we did not enter a troughy pattern this week. Its just not delivering the results he wanted... so you are feeling his wrath now.

Good lord.

 

I’m not the one lobbing personal attacks his way. I don’t think the pattern is going to end up as troughy as he was predicting though.

[Jesse]

The radar just switched out of clear air mode!

 

#babysteps

[TT-SEA]

Good lord.

 

I’m not the one lobbing personal attacks his way. I don’t think the pattern is going to end up as troughy as he was predicting though.

 

 

You are mocking his accurate forecast.   

[Jesse]

You are mocking his accurate forecast.

The first half of June hasn’t happened yet. Right now models are looking warm and mostly dry.

[Phil]

Good lord.

 

I’m not the one lobbing personal attacks his way. I don’t think the pattern is going to end up as troughy as he was predicting though.

How troughy did I say it would be?

 

IIRC, I went out of my way to highlight the fact it wouldn’t be anything extraordinary or anomalous. Just your typical/modest stretch of warm season troughing as the MJO crosses the Indo-Pacific domain following a cycle of poleward AAM propagation.

 

This isn’t a background state. Ridging will return in late June, and last through at least the middle of July. Then tropical forcing will eventually return to the EHEM in the third or fourth week of July. Rinse, repeat.