PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Well sadly, the 20% chance of over 10,000 people dying in the Turkey/Syria earthquake verified as the death toll is over 11,000 now. 

I read this morning the toll is over 20,000 and some risk management firm out of Germany was quoted as saying the most likely final number would be near 45,000. 

[Slushy Inch]

Almost the same as GEFS. The fun really begins afterwards as the ridge gains amplitude.

[TT-SEA]

The trough at the end of the 12Z ECMWF looks almost identical to the Valentines Day trough.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

If a dynamic final warming pulls us out of the Niña state quicker in the coming months I’m not too worried about it in terms of weather this spring and summer. Odds are always high for warmth in those seasons anyway (9/10 springs and 10/10 summers have been above average in the last decade).

We’ve been in a three year Niña which has brought us progressively hotter summers with an all time record smashing heat wave smack dab in the middle, and aside from last spring’s insanely overdue cool and wet anomalies the other two Niña springs were dry (2021 was record dry) and warmer than average. Fine with trying something different. 2019 was by many measures one of our best warm seasons of the last ten years and that was a with a Niño.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The unfortunate thing about the Turkish quake is Istanbul is almost certainly going to be hit by a quake of similar size in the next decade. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

If a dynamic final warming pulls us out of the Niña state quicker in the coming months I’m not too worried about it in terms of weather this spring and summer. Odds are always high for warmth in those seasons anyway (9/10 springs and 10/10 summers have been above average in the last decade).

We’ve been in a three year Niña which has brought us progressively hotter summers with an all time record smashing heat wave smack dab in the middle, and aside from last spring’s insanely overdue cool and wet anomalies the other two Niña springs were dry (2021 was record dry) and warmer than average. Fine with trying something different. 2019 was by many measures one of our best warm seasons of the last ten years and that was a with a Niño.

Right there with you. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The trough at the end of the 12Z ECMWF looks almost identical to the Valentines Day trough.    

Not as chilly. Perfect for mountain snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z EURO was pretty solid. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 52 in North Bend and looks like clouds are breaking up... nice day!   

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The trough at the end of the 12Z ECMWF looks almost identical to the Valentines Day trough.    

I guess...but arent the "teleconnections" there to make this draw much more cold air into us after this slide? VDT comes in with a low T pacific ridge, no HBV, and no greenland block. Am I just wishcasting? @Deweydog reading the gibberish I just wrote is probably like watching someone try to represent themselves in court. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Right there with you. 

I knew you would be Andrew.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z EURO was pretty solid. 

It's nice that it nearly matches GEFS progression all the way to 240hr. GEFS has been doing pretty well lately.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Solid 

[TT-SEA]

Clouds are thicker in Seattle... but you can see the brighter sky off to the southeast.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Solid 

What's weird is that the meteogram has the mean at 4 inches. For Boeing Field.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I guess...but arent the "teleconnections" there to make this draw much more cold air into us after this slide? VDT comes in with a low T pacific ridge, no HBV, and no greenland block. Am I just wishcasting? 

Yeah I think I agree with what you are saying. The trough next week never really had much potential in the lowlands due to the factors you are talking about. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah I think I agree with what you are saying. The trough next week never really had much potential in the lowlands due to the factors you are talking about. 

I have no idea either... and the models will probably change a few more times anyways.    But at face value the VD trough and the trough at the end of the ECMWF run are very similar.   What happens after that is totally up in the air of course.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Resolution issues. That 6.4 number on the map is McChord. Seatac shows 4, but Renton shows almost 10 since Renton airport must be in the next square over which has all the foothills. 

 

That makes sense. 

[Slushy Inch]

Would be nice if EPS could get anywhere near this cold.

[RentonHill]

EPS Day 9 vs 00z

[RentonHill]

Day 10 vs 00z

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Day 10 vs 00z

Nice chilly trough. Mountains will be well over 100 percent of average soon.

[RentonHill]

Day 11 vs 00z

[Skagit Weather]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I read this morning the toll is over 20,000 and some risk management firm out of Germany was quoted as saying the most likely final number would be near 45,000. 

Yeah, the most up-to-date number I saw was around 21,000 as of this morning. It makes it the 5th or 6th deadliest earthquake since 2000 and could be in the top 20 deadliest earthquakes in the last century. Earthquakes (and tsunamis) truly are one of the deadliest natural disasters when they occur, especially in areas without updated building codes.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I guess...but arent the "teleconnections" there to make this draw much more cold air into us after this slide? VDT comes in with a low T pacific ridge, no HBV, and no greenland block. Am I just wishcasting? @Deweydog reading the gibberish I just wrote is probably like watching someone try to represent themselves in court. 

Both patterns have considerable meh to offer on the large scale.

On related note, do you ever wonder if you’re having a stroke or something when you’re literally doing nothing and start violently choking on your own saliva?

[SouthHillFrosty]

13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

That makes sense. 

Exactly what Renton said. Also, it has SeaTac at 202ft….. when it is more at 400. Ever since they changed the resolution last month, the ensembles have gone to shit 

[RentonHill]

Day 13

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice chilly trough. Mountains will be well over 100 percent of average soon.

We can only hope.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Both patterns have considerable meh to offer on the large scale.

On related note, do you ever wonder if you’re having a stroke or something when you’re literally doing nothing and start violently choking on your own saliva?

I think REM wrote a song about that one time.

[RentonHill]

Day 13

[RentonHill]

this is a good EPS. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Day 13

Lets fing Go! Massively better. King GEFS and GEPS

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Oh...

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Hot dam.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

This is going to require a FB post.

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not much more to say about this one...

[TT-SEA]

I assume the 00Z EPS will pulsate the other way and everyone will be sad... but that cold signal over BC is exactly what the EPS usually shows ahead of our memorable events.    Can't ask for anything better right now.  

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much more to say about this one...