PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much more to say about this one...

Kind of speaks for itself. Model riding intensity bumped up.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think REM wrote a song about that one time.

I’ve got the Michael Stipe thing before, especially if I’m sick and in a big running phase. I get this more often…

 

That’s a guy who doesn’t give two sh*ts about overexposed sensors in Linn County.

#trump2024and4eva

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 2022 redux. 

[Slushy Inch]

Control doesn't even wait. Doesn't really bring low level cold though.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2022 redux. 

I'd prefer 2019, but I'll take it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I’ve got the Michael Stipe thing before, especially if I’m sick and in a big running phase. I get this more often…

 

That’s a guy who doesn’t give two sh*ts about overexposed sensors in Linn County.

#trump2024and4eva

I saw some Trump 2024 signs in Linn County yesterday. Gotta wonder who the F*CK is still ride or die with that guy...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I'd prefer 2019, but I'll take it.

For whatever reason the late February window has been a pretty good one the past 12 years. 

2011

2018

2019

2022

Honorable Mention:

2017

2020

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For whatever reason the late February window has been a pretty good one the past 12 years. 

2011

2018

2019

2022

Honorable Mention:

2017

2020

2019 was still pretty chilly in the second half, but first half was the coldest.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve got the Michael Stipe thing before, especially if I’m sick and in a big running phase. I get this more often…

 

That’s a guy who doesn’t give two sh*ts about overexposed sensors in Linn County.

#trump2024and4eva

Think Tiger lives in Lane county

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much more to say about this one...

Main event coming

 

 

into view 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Where’s Jim???

Yeah guidance is almost in universal agreement re: demise of the SPV. Any risk of vertical stacking w/ TPV in NE-Canada is basically nil, unlike earlier this month, which once looked solid but devolved once the models realized the SSW attempt was going to fail.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

2019 was still pretty chilly in the second half, but first half was the coldest.

Up there, yes... Down here, the bigger anomalies were later in the month. Not only the big event that dumped 18" of snow in Eugene, but also we had a lot of cold offshore flow at the end of the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After further review, lets take February 2020 off the honorable mention. I think I was thinking a couple March events were in February that year, looking at it, we had a decent snow on the 29th, but 1000' snow levels and a generally mild end of the month overall. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Think Tiger lives in Lane county

Yeah, but they shot Stand By Me in Linn County, and during a heatwave according to Boss Man Bob Cormier.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the SSW final warming event (as opposed to a slow decay) means a quicker demise of the Nina.  

Yeah I’m more optimistic about the demise of the La Niña background state now. Because it’s a slower/W1 type event under +QBO the tropics might respond more slowly, but I think we could see some actual WWB activity next month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, but they shot Stand By Me in Linn County, and during a heatwave according to Boss Man Bob Cormier.

BRB, going to throw some 80s and 90s cultural references into a food processor to hopefully come up with a decent response 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Here we go ppl!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Yeah, but they shot Stand By Me in Linn County, and during a heatwave according to Boss Man Bob Cormier.

Brownsville is a cool town. I usually hit up their Dari Mart for a cup of JOE, when I am driving down to Eugene from Lebanon on the 3rd Wednesday of each month. I sit on a board down there with the HR Director for Dari Mart, so I always mention the friendly folx and good service I receive there. Beautiful town. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I’m more optimistic about the demise of the La Niña background state now. Because it’s a slower/W1 type event under +QBO the tropics might respond more slowly, but I think we could see some actual WWB activity next month.

As my dear friend Jesse said, I'm cool with this. Our summers have roasted, and our last few winters have been OK in the aggregate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just booked my trip to Chicago for late April, now we know when the real deal will arrive. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

I'm annoyed that Judah is quoted in this article:

https://wapo.st/3jSDPyC

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After further review, lets take February 2020 off the honorable mention. I think I was thinking a couple March events were in February that year, looking at it, we had a decent snow on the 29th, but 1000' snow levels and a generally mild end of the month overall. 

You could probably extend the late February renaissance back to 2006, which had the big backdoor airmass between the 17th-20th and then 2007 and 2009 both had troughing and lowland snow in the last week of the month. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I'm annoyed that Judah is quoted in this article:

https://wapo.st/3jSDPyC

Is this fake news, or very fake news?

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is this fake news, or very fake news?

More real than predicting weather based on what happened the previous year?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You could probably extend the late February renaissance back to 2006, which had the big backdoor airmass between the 17th-20th and then 2007 and 2009 both had troughing and lowland snow in the last week of the month. 

Good point. I wasn't around for 2007, but I remember getting a couple inches of snow on the 26th at the valley floor level in 2009. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

More real than predicting weather based on what happened the previous year?

It was just a joke about wApO. Didn't mean nuthin' by it. 

[Cold Snap]

Up to 52.2. Looks like with all the cloud cover I might not get into the upper 50s today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

First 60 watch at PDX has just been upgraded to a first 60 warning.

[High Desert Mat?]

17 hours ago, Deweydog said:

#outandproud

Is that a cannon? I’ll stay on your good side General Lee. 

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good point. I wasn't around for 2007, but I remember getting a couple inches of snow on the 26th at the valley floor level in 2009. 

Think we had about 1/2" of slush at the end of February 2007 in Clark County. Good PSCZ with that event, too.

[Phishy Wx]

58 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I'd prefer 2019, but I'll take it.

seems like Late Feb/Early March 2019

almost like bookending a EL Nino > Neutral ish ENSO > 3 year Nina > Neutral ish > EL Nino

[Phishy Wx]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just booked my trip to Chicago for late April, now we know when the real deal will arrive. 

I dogged a bullet I think going to FL next week for our annual sales conference.  I'll be in South Carolina the first weekend of March for my parents 50th anniversary and I'll be in Louisville the last week of March.  pencil in a late season blast/storm

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Is that a cannon? I’ll stay on your good side General Lee. 

Disturbing lack of snowpack in that pic.

[Cold Snap]

Just calculated the average amount of snow I’ve gotten for each winter since 2016-2017. The average for me is 15.1” per winter. The average for the 7 winters prior to that for me is only 5.9”. I think it’s safe to say that this time period recently has been really great for snow IMBY.

[Cascadia_Wx]

29 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Just calculated the average amount of snow I’ve gotten for each winter since 2016-2017. The average for me is 15.1” per winter. The average for the 7 winters prior to that for me is only 5.9”. I think it’s safe to say that this time period recently has been really great for snow IMBY.

Gotta wonder if this era for lowland snow will be looked at by people in the future like we look at the 1950s.

[Omegaraptor]

Beautiful sunny day here.

It’s 57 at EUG, 55 at PDX, 54 at HIO, and 52 at SLE. Yet CVO is at 46. I would think CAD is at play but it definitely feels warmer than 46… and EUG is much warmer with similar geography. Something up with the sensors possibly?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day in Polk County. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Models seem to get better when I'm not available to post them and model ride. lol

18z GFS in 4 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Beautiful sunny day here.

It’s 57 at EUG, 55 at PDX, 54 at HIO, and 52 at SLE. Yet CVO is at 46. I would think CAD is at play but it definitely feels warmer than 46… and EUG is much warmer with similar geography. Something up with the sensors possibly?

My car thermometer said 45 near Monmouth. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My car thermometer said 45 near Monmouth. 

Interesting. Probably just this part of the west valley not mixing out then.