August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Saw this from MJVentrice, expect model volatility until the 2 typhoons interact with the jetstream.

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

 

"Some big volatility in the ECMWF; Expecting this volatility to continue until the time where the pair of strong typhoons over the West Pacific interact with the North Pacific Jet at the initialization date of the model run."

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032255386999566336

[BLI snowman]

12Z GFS is cutting off the ULL next week much closer. Heat wave cancel!

Definitely will move that thing way west. That cat is already out of the bag. No going back.

[TT-SEA]

I am glad to see the overall shake up in the models for later next week.

 

Persistent NW flow with a strong ridge offshore is NOT the best pattern right now... we need some GOA troughing.    

 

The NW flow pattern being shown earlier would just result in rain and clouds in my area while its dry (and probably sunny) elsewhere.   GOA troughing opens the possibility of region wide rain with southerly flow and higher humidity.   

[Jesse]

Yeah, have a feeling it will trend warmer as well as that midweek energy inches further westward.

 

Pretty typical arrangement for our recent summers. One quick trough dives in a bit too far east to deliver meaningful rainfall while another piece of energy follows it and just dies off the coast. Meanwhile we end up in sort of a pukey purgatory.

Feels like there is an anti-troughing force field over us.

[Jesse]

I am glad to see the overall shake up in the models for later next week.

 

Persistent NW flow with a strong ridge offshore is NOT the best pattern right now... we need some GOA troughing.

 

The NW flow pattern being shown earlier would just result in rain and clouds in my area while its dry (and probably sunny) elsewhere. GOA troughing opens the possibility of region wide rain with southerly flow and higher humidity.

The shake up will probably ultimately end up meaning another perma-low offshore while the 4CH expands westward again and saves summer.

[Jesse]

Saw this from MJVentrice, expect model volatility until the 2 typhoons interact with the jetstream.

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

 

"Some big volatility in the ECMWF; Expecting this volatility to continue until the time where the pair of strong typhoons over the West Pacific interact with the North Pacific Jet at the initialization date of the model run."

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032255386999566336

Pacific typhoons almost always result in torching here.

[Jesse]

Well that was fun. Can’t wait to get my hopes up for the next troughy mirage.

[TT-SEA]

The shake up will probably ultimately end up meaning another perma-low offshore while the 4CH expands westward again and saves summer.

 

Or not.

 

I think there is a good chance that this ends up being just what we need... wet SW flow.

[Farmboy]

That's too close for comfort. Pretty amazing how quickly Lane intensified into a category 5 hurricane.

Especially since the media was telling everyone on Monday that it would be a cat 2 by today, and probably wouldn't be making landfall as a significant hurricane. Classic Weather Channel stuff...

[Jesse]

Or not.

 

I think there is a good chance that this ends up being just what we need... wet SW flow.

Last night you were saying a cutoff was likely. Make up your mind.

[TT-SEA]

Last night you were saying a cutoff was likely. Make up your mind.

 

I never said anything was "likely" this time around.   And I actually said a solution like what the 00Z GFS showed was unlikely to verify.   

 

I did say that its not unusual in general for a trough to cut off to our west and bring us warm weather.  It is a fairly common scenario in general.  You were making it sound like it took some incredible sequence of events for that to happen because the early August situation was unusual.    

[Phil]

Sure, send some over here.

 

It looks like Baltimore broke a 129 year old record for July rainfall this past month and it's on pace to have it's wettest summer since they began taking observations in 1870.

Could make for some organic analog fun!

 

And yeah, there’s standing water everywhere. Swarms of insects and seas of fungi.

[TT-SEA]

Could make for some organic analog fun!

 

And yeah, there’s standing water everywhere. Swarms of insects and seas of fungi. Just had another downpour on what was supposed to be a dry, sunny, downslopey day.

 

 

 

 

A few weeks ago you said it was basically a desert with dead grass and trees dropping their leaves... a complete burnt up wasteland.   

 

Your descriptions are so over-the-top colorful.

[Phil]

 

 

A few weeks ago you said it was basically a desert with dead grass and trees dropping their leaves... a complete burnt up wasteland.

 

Your descriptions are so over-the-top colorful.

You’re a f**king liar, dude. I never said anything like that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a fun graphic!

[Phil]

What is Tim smoking?

 

The 12z GFS completely caved to the 00z ECMWF in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

You’re a f**king liar, dude. I never said anything like that.

 

 

You said exactly that in early July leading up to your trip here... saying that the dead grass here would never compare to all the dead grass there.  

 

And then when the heavy rain arrived there when you were out here... I said that it would be lush green again when Phil gets home. 

 

I swear you are becoming less coherent.  

[Phil]

12z GFS, D6-10.

 

Cool and troughy.

 

[TT-SEA]

What is Tim smoking?

 

The 12z GFS completely caved to the 00z ECMWF in the long range.

 

I said exactly that.   

 

Are you feeling OK? 

 

 

12Z GFS is cutting off the ULL next week much closer.     Heat wave cancel!  

 

[Phil]

You said exactly that in early July leading up to your trip here... saying that the dead grass here would never compare to all the dead grass there.

 

And then when the heavy rain arrived there when you were out here... I said that it would be lush green again when Phil gets home.

 

I swear you are becoming less coherent.

You are completely and utterly full of s**t.

 

I said the grass in Seattle didn’t look any worse than it typically does here. That’s it. Not once did I claim my area was in a megadrought.

[Geos]

Current map and hope it gets pushed further west away from the islands

 

GFS now drives the hurricane right into Maui. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a good year for Hawaiian tourism...

[Phil]

Tim is slipping faster than his summer on the 12z models.

 

I knew something was up. Checked the GFS, surely enough, it moved towards the ECMWF. The CMC followed suit. No wonder he’s having a psychotic break.

[TT-SEA]

You are completely and utterly full of s**t.

 

I said the grass in Seattle didn’t look any worse than it typically does here. That’s it. Not once did I claim my area was in a megadrought.

 

 

 

Did I say mega drought?

 

You said that it was very wet and then flipped to insanely dry and that the grass was burnt up and the trees were dropping leaves and it would better in Seattle than it was there.   You also pointed out how the incredible heat there had sapped all the moisture out of the vegetation.

 

It sounded VERY bad.    I was very worried and reported on all the flooding there during your trip.   

[TT-SEA]

Tim is slipping faster than summer on the models.

 

I knew something was up. Checked the GFS, surely enough, it moved towards the ECMWF. Explains it perfectly.

 

 

PHIL... I SAID THAT THE GFS CAVED.    I SAID "HEAT WAVE CANCEL".  

 

 

I feel like I am talking to a 90-year old who is not quite there now.    You don't read anything... you just skim and attack.   

[Geos]

Looking a lot better by daybreak tomorrow.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I don't think Tim deserves the ridicule on this one...

[Phil]

 

Did I say mega drought?

 

You said that it was very wet and then flipped to insanely dry and that the grass was burnt up and the trees were dropping leaves and it would better in Seattle than it was there. You also pointed out how the incredible heat there had sapped all the moisture out of the vegetation.

 

It sounded VERY bad. I was very worried and reported on all the flooding there during your trip.

Are you on psych drugs or something? Trying to numb those end-of-summer blues with an opioid cocktail?

 

We did have our longest rainless stretch on record for summer since the 1870s back in July, which stressed the vegetation. But your description of my hyperbole is, well, hyperbolic. And just flat out wrong.

[TT-SEA]

And without a drop of rain in almost 3 weeks, the brown grass and leaf drop has begun in earnest once again.

 

[Jesse]

PHIL... I SAID THAT THE GFS CAVED. I SAID "HEAT WAVE CANCEL".

 

 

I feel like I am talking to a 90-year old who is not quite there now. You don't read anything... you just skim and attack.

Phil is becoming to the cool and wet crowd here what happ is to anyone left of Trump.

[Jesse]

Definite warming trend on the 12z ensembles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some much warmer ensemble members in the long range!

[TT-SEA]

Are you on psych drugs or something? Trying to numb those end-of-summer blues with an opioid cocktail laced with PCP?

 

We did have our longest rainless stretch on record for summer since the 1870s back in July. But your description of my hyperbole is, well, hyperbolic. And just flat out wrong.

 

Pretty much every description you provide of your weather and conditions is hyperbolic and very colorful.     Ask anyone here.   You just said "seas of fungi" to describe your conditions today.   Colorful.  

 

This has been true for years.    Since we heard about 200 mph winds and 95-degree dewpoints in McHenry!    

 

You are very good story-teller.   You should be an author.  

[Farmboy]

Looking a lot better by daybreak tomorrow.

 

Not for 2/3 of the state.

[TT-SEA]

Phil is becoming to the cool and wet crowd here what happ is to anyone left of Trump.

 

 

His trolling has become just flailing around... wildly inaccurate and over-the-top.

[Jesse]

Looking forward to a truly demoralizing Euro run.

[Jesse]

His trolling has become just flailing around... wildly inaccurate and over-the-top.

Yeah. And it is a shame because there are some very logically sound counterpoints to much of your rhetoric. He should try harder or not try at all.

[Phil]

I think I’m going on sabbatical for a little while. Just isn’t worth it right now.

 

Continue with the hyperbolic misreading of my posts in the meantime, Tim. If it keeps you off the ledge as summer slips away, I’m sure everyone here will be greatful.

 

Peace.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think I’m going on sabbatical for a little while. Just isn’t worth it right now.

 

Continue with the hyperbolic misreading of my posts in the meantime, Tim. If it keeps you off the ledge as summer slips away, I’m sure everyone here will be greatful.

 

Peace.

 

Peace

[TT-SEA]

I think I’m going on sabbatical for a little while. Just isn’t worth it right now.

 

Continue with the hyperbolic misreading of my posts in the meantime, Tim. If it keeps you off the ledge as summer slips away, I’m sure everyone here will be greatful.

 

Peace.

 

 

Good idea.   You really seem out of control lately.    

 

Most of what you post here seems to be just wasted crap trying to get me to react any way possible.   Its becoming incoherent.   It seems frantic.