August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

Little bit of snow showing up along the spine of the Rockies coming up. Mainly on Monday.

 

[Jesse]

Tim has much thicker skin than Jim. Have to admit for as much crap as Tim get's he takes it pretty well.

I dunno. Jim will be harassed by Tim for weeks and usually roll along pretty merrily. It’s usually the ones sticking up for Jim that get into it with Tim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dunno. Jim will be harassed by Tim for weeks and usually roll along pretty merrily. It’s usually the ones sticking up for Jim that get into it with Tim.

 

As far as i know Tim has never had a meltdown and left the forum. Tim is really the only person who get's on Jim. Whereas almost everyone, myself included, get on Tim. I like Jim, but learned years ago his forecasts are mere wishcasts. 

[Jesse]

Speaking of Jim...hope he’s alright. We usually PM but even I haven’t heard from him in several weeks. Generally this is around the time he starts getting more active and seeing everything as a sign of the upcoming epic winter.

[TT-SEA]

I dunno. Jim will be harassed by Tim for weeks and usually roll along pretty merrily. It’s usually the ones sticking up for Jim that get into it with Tim.

Jim is honesty a saint in tbat regard.

 

I have backed off in recent years.

[Jesse]

As far as i know Tim has never had a meltdown and left the forum. Tim is really the only person who get's on Jim. Whereas almost everyone, myself included, get on Tim. I like Jim, but learned years ago his forecasts are mere wishcasts.

True. I think it’s more the actual weather Jim lets get to him though, as opposed to the people here.

[MossMan]

Speaking of Jim...hope he’s alright. We usually PM but even I haven’t heard from him in several weeks. Generally this is around the time he starts getting more active and seeing everything as a sign of the upcoming epic winter.

I thought it was after Labor Day when he really starts to post again usually. Could be wrong though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

True. I think it’s more the actual weather Jim lets get to him though, as opposed to the people here.

 

Yeah I think so. Gotta lower the expectations in these parts. I get it though, I was in full meltdown mode around February 1st this past winter. Turned out okay though...

[TT-SEA]

True. I think it’s more the actual weather Jim lets get to him though, as opposed to the people here.

Jim takes out his anger on nature rather than people.

[Jesse]

I thought it was after Labor Day when he really starts to post again usually. Could be wrong though.

Mid-August through Labor Day seems to be the window in recent years. He actually used to post in the summer too before they went to complete , with basically nothing of interest in the cold department.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Speaking of Jim...hope he’s alright. We usually PM but even I haven’t heard from him in several weeks. Generally this is around the time he starts getting more active and seeing everything as a sign of the upcoming epic winter.

 

Hopefully he's out panning gold by Cle Elum. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm surprised at how little people are talking about this coming winter. Usually by late August people are getting all revved up. Seems the expectations are at an all time low.

[Deweydog]

I'm surprised at how little people are talking about this coming winter. Usually by late August people are getting all revved up. Seems the expectations are at an all time low.

I think last winter was a bit of an anomaly with all the NPS/suburban DC hype. This seems more normal where people are just starting to murmur about it. It's still over a season away.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think last winter was a bit of an anomaly with all the NPS/suburban DC hype. This seems more normal where people are just starting to murmur about it. It's still over a season away.

 

Researching my analogs right now. 

 

2014-15

2002-03

1991-92 

 

Some years that really stand out.

[Deweydog]

Researching my analogs right now.

 

2014-15

2002-03

1991-92

 

Some years that really stand out.

Might as well throw 2004-05 on there for full effect.

[Front Ranger]

Tim has much thicker skin than Jim. Have to admit for as much crap as Tim get's he takes it pretty well.

 

I got him to swear at me the other day. Take some pride in that.

[Jesse]

EPS seems to be in generally good alignment with the operational run.

[Front Ranger]

Jim takes out his anger on nature rather than people.

 

Yup. And then mother nature takes it out on Jesse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might as well throw 2004-05 on there for full effect.

 

True if this late August troughing develops we may have a solid analog!

[Jesse]

One thing I’m liking about both the EPS and GEFS is that it looks like the upcoming cooler spell could have some staying power. Hints it could last 7-10 days if not longer.

[Front Ranger]

I'm surprised at how little people are talking about this coming winter. Usually by late August people are getting all revved up. Seems the expectations are at an all time low.

 

This seemed about on time: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1834-lets-talk-winter-20182019/

 

Nothing like the GLAAM/PDO/etc glory years, though, you're right.

[Farmboy]

I'm surprised at how little people are talking about this coming winter. Usually by late August people are getting all revved up. Seems the expectations are at an all time low.

It's interesting that the same pattern that was prevalent last winter has been showing up in the models (ridge just offshore bringing in NW flow to Washington). If this is indicative of future trends, hopefully we can get some mechanism to move our ridge further offshore as we get into November/December. If we can, then this winter may be the blockbuster we've been dreaming about.

[Jesse]

Maybe a little ho hum since most of us were expecting it to happen a week or so ago, but PDX just tied their all-time record for annual 90+ days.

 

Should break it tomorrow with a coveted 30. A whole monf of 90s!

[TT-SEA]

It's interesting that the same pattern that was prevalent last winter has been showing up in the models (ridge just offshore bringing in NW flow to Washington). If this is indicative of future trends, hopefully we can get some mechanism to move our ridge further offshore as we get into November/December. If we can, then this winter may be the blockbuster we've been dreaming about.

 

 

Looks almost exactly the same as the pattern that dominated much of last winter... the one that brought endless clouds and precip to the north and east of Seattle and not much elsewhere.

[Phil]

Holy cow, you were close! Not the best idea to be outside during that intense of a storm.

It sorta caught me off guard, because it was a non-severe isentropic lift situation ahead of a warm front. Usually that means lots of in-cloud lightning and heavy rain, which isn’t really noteworthy.

 

Then this thing starts spitting out CGs like a badass surface based cell. Doesn’t usually happen like that on cloudy, rainy days.

[Phil]

Yup. And then mother nature takes it out on Jesse.

This is true.

[Jesse]

This is true.

Still would love to see what this place would be like if ma nature’s paddle were on the other cheek for so long.

[Phil]

I think last winter was a bit of an anomaly with all the NPS/suburban DC hype. This seems more normal where people are just starting to murmur about it. It's still over a season away.

Easy to talk s**t when you never ante in.

[Deweydog]

Easy to talk s**t when you never ante in.

You always say that, but many of us make wishcasts all the time and crash/burn. Just roll with it. Despite all the acronyms and heady bullshit, you're just pissing into the wind and hoping for the best like the rest of us.

 

#augusticebox

[Jesse]

Easy to talk s**t when you never ante in.

I see you’ve met Matt.

[Deweydog]

I see you’ve met Matt.

Shouldn't you be in class?

[MossMan]

This winter is going to surprise a lot of forum members!

[Jesse]

Shouldn't you be in class?

Starts in ten.

[Deweydog]

Starts in ten.

What's your winter 4cast?

[Phil]

You always say that, but many of us make wishcasts all the time and crash/burn. Just roll with it. Despite all the acronyms and heady bullshit, you're just pissing into the wind and hoping for the best like the rest of us.

 

#augusticebox

You’re gonna reach escape velocity and fly out of orbit at this rate.

[Front Ranger]

You always say that, but many of us make wishcasts all the time and crash/burn. Just roll with it. Despite all the acronyms and heady bullshit, you're just pissing into the wind and hoping for the best like the rest of us.

 

#augusticebox

Nobody has crashed and burned like the consistency of your August Ice Box/Frozen Turkey/White MLK calls.

 

#picksomethingwarm

[Deweydog]

Nobody has crashed and burned like the consistency of your August Ice Box/Frozen Turkey/White MLK calls.

 

#picksomethingwarm

Sucks to suck.

[Deweydog]

You’re gonna reach escape velocity and fly out of orbit at this rate.

Point remains. You're not alone on the sucktacular train. Enjoy the view and watch those curves around DuPont!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last winter was not dominated by NW flow. We wouldn't have had abysmal snowpack if it was.

[Deweydog]

Last winter was not dominated by NW flow. We wouldn't have had abysmal snowpack if it was.

There was quite a bit of dirty ridge NW flow in January and early February.