August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Hey Randy... the 00Z ECMWF says we get absolutely doused on Sunday! And Portland gets nothing. Surprise... surprise.

 

Ahhh. We were going to go to the PNE

[ShawniganLake]

It is a bit strange, there's no measureable wind here right now, but it just bounced back up to 76F.

Down to 66 here

[TT-SEA]

Ahhh. We were going to go to the PNE

 

Rains all the way through Monday up here on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

And Portland still gets basically nothing.   

[ShawniganLake]

Get yer fans fired up!

https://komonews.com/news/local/everyone-turn-your-fan-on-spokane-group-aims-to-blow-wildfire-smoke-back-to-canada

Seems strange they are trying to blow it all the way to “northeastern Canada”. That’s a long ways away.

[Geos]

Stepped out and tried to take a quick shot. Here is my attempt:

 

That's a great shot. Nice attempt. 

[TT-SEA]

Seems strange they are trying to blow it all the way to “northeastern Canada”. That’s a long ways away.

 

And then all this smoke over here is going to blow in from the west there on Thursday anyways.

 

And then nature will take over with full ventilation after that.     

[TT-SEA]

The pattern shown on the 00Z ECMWF next week looks like the pattern we had most of last winter.   

 

Persistent NW flow!  

 

[Deweydog]

I'm worried about all of it.

It's the only way to get things done.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jbolin]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm looking forward to this. 

[Perturbed Member]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm looking forward to this. 

 

A thing of beauty. It's going to feel very refreshing.

[Jbolin]

A thing of beauty. It's going to feel very refreshing.

Absolutely

[Timmy]

Looks like a nice marine push this morning, air is wet and cool!

[MossMan]

Hey Randy... the 00Z ECMWF says we get absolutely doused on Sunday! And Portland gets nothing. Surprise... surprise.

 

And everyone from Portland to Colorado...or is it Utah (wherever FlatRanger lives) will think we are making up stories of our “imaginary” rainfall. Maps will be posted, tempers will flare, PM’s will be had...prepare now!!

 

Smoke is very intense this morning, was outside with the dogs for 15min and now my clothes reek of smoke.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Smoke has a modest insulating effect, yes. Much weaker than cloud cover, for example, but it could still be enough to slow boundary layer decoupling. Theoretically speaking, at least.

Living here with thick smoke, yes it doesn't insulate very much, as we have been pretty cool (relatively speaking) in the mornings.  It definitely keeps daytime temps down a lot though, 10 degrees or so.  We have had a hard time getting past 80 degrees when we should be around 90 or more.  The National Weather Service in Spokane estimates that the smoke has kept high temperatures down by as much as 13 degrees.

[MossMan]

Just went to get in my truck, have a nice dusting of ash on it.

[Jesse]

And everyone from Portland to Colorado...or is it Utah (wherever FlatRanger lives) will think we are making up stories of our “imaginary” rainfall. Maps will be posted, tempers will flare, PM’s will be had...prepare now!!

 

Smoke is very intense this morning, was outside with the dogs for 15min and now my clothes reek of smoke.

Another victim of unfair forum treatment. Sounds like you could use some representation. Here’s Dewey’s card.

[Phil]

Sick. Y’all need to save this gif.

 

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1031738592031166465?s=20

[Farmboy]

Red skies in the morning... Looks like another air quality issue on tap for today. Was hoping this stuff was going to move offshore.

 

Edit:. I just saw Phil's post above. So this is smoke from the new fires in the north Cascades?

[Jesse]

Yesterday’s smoke based inversion has definitely broken down here this morning.

 

Skies are still smoky, but PDX is running + 9 compared to yesterday. There is also a light offshore breeze here. Should be well into the 90s today for (hopefully) one of the last times this year.

[TT-SEA]

Red skies in the morning... Looks like another air quality issue on tap for today. Was hoping this stuff was going to move offshore.

 

 

It is blowing offshore but there is much more coming in now from northeast with offshore flow. 

 

The flow weakly turns onshore tomorrow which will make it even worse as the stuff offshore comes back in again.     

 

We should clear out much better on Thursday as onshore flow really ramps up during the day.    

[Phil]

Living here with thick smoke, yes it doesn't insulate very much, as we have been pretty cool (relatively speaking) in the mornings. It definitely keeps daytime temps down a lot though, 10 degrees or so. We have had a hard time getting past 80 degrees when we should be around 90 or more. The National Weather Service in Spokane estimates that the smoke has kept high temperatures down by as much as 13 degrees.

It’s definitely a better coolant at the near-surface portion of the boundary layer. But there is some modest insulating effect at night (it’s just much weaker, comparatively speaking). Because the smoke also warms the middle/upper levels.

 

This is why the notion that PDX would have broken its all time high in August 2017, if not for the smoke, is flawed logic. The smoke probably added ~ 1-2C to 850mb temperatures via absorption/diffusion and reduced adiabatic cooling of convected air.

[Kayla]

Sick. Y’all need to save this gif.

 

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1031738592031166465?s=20

 

Ughhhh 

 

Really need some moisture in BC.

[Jesse]

It’s definitely a better coolant at the near-surface portion of the boundary layer. But there is some modest insulating effect at night (it’s just much weaker, comparatively speaking). Because the smoke also warms the middle/upper levels.

 

This is why the notion that PDX would have broken it’s all time high in August 2017, if not for the smoke, is flawed logic. The smoke probably added ~ 2C to 850mb temperatures via absorption/diffusion and reduced adiabatic cooling of convected air.

I think it’s not just the presence of smoke itself, but what it can help exaggerate at the lower levels as well, with the right pattern. Yesterday was a pretty good example. A weak marine intrusion working with the smoke to form an unnaturally thick inversion for this time of year.

[Phil]

I think it’s not just the presence of smoke itself, but what it can help exaggerate at the lower levels as well, with the right pattern. Yesterday was a pretty good example. A weak marine intrusion working with the smoke to form an unnaturally thick inversion for this time of year.

Interesting take. I think that’s a great point. Especially since the marine layer probably has a higher relative/specific humidity compared to the air above it, which gives it a higher thermal capacity, making it more difficult to sensibly heat since more insolation goes into latent heating.

 

Factor in the continuous reduction in insolation downward through the column under the smoke, and that’s a perfect recipe for an inversion, since the upper levels are also getting a modest temperature boost, steepening the inversion and increasing its potential altitude.

[Kayla]

I think it’s not just the presence of smoke itself, but what it can help exaggerate at the lower levels as well, with the right pattern. Yesterday was a pretty good example. A weak marine intrusion working with the smoke to form an unnaturally thick inversion for this time of year.

 

The whole inversion thing is an interesting side effect to very smokey skies. We had a similar effect the day before yesterday without the marine influence but from rainfall the day before. Pretty unique scenario.

[Kayla]

Interesting take. I think that’s a great point. Especially since the marine layer probably has a higher relative/specific humidity compared to the air above it, which gives it a higher thermal capacity, making it more difficult to sensibly heat since more insolation goes into latent heating.

 

Factor in the continuous reduction in insolation downward through the column under the smoke, and that’s a perfect recipe for an inversion, since the upper levels are also getting a modest temperature boost, steepening the inversion and increasing its potential altitude.

 

I don't think its just a marine influence either. Any sort of low level moisture can cause this.

[Geos]

Sick. Y’all need to save this gif.

 

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1031738592031166465?s=20

 

Yeah it was gross out there. Correction - it still is!

 

Got a weird yellowish, peach hue to the sky right now. 

 

AQ index topped at 312 last night, still at 297 here.

 

https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/IndexBoardChart.aspx?ST_ID=23_PM2.5

[Phil]

The whole inversion thing is an interesting side effect to very smokey skies. We had a similar effect the day before yesterday without the marine influence but from rainfall the day before. Pretty unique scenario.

Yeah, any amount of surface/near-surface moisture will increase the amount of energy required to heat the near surface boundary layer to a particular temperature. But since moisture can also increase buoyancy sufficiently in some cases, it might be that smoke modestly aids nucleation/condensation with the increased moisture presence, which in conjunction with modest upper level warming and reduced surface heating, helps perpetuate the inversion?

 

If you’ve ever used power tools w/ exhaust output on cool days, I’m sure you’ve noticed how the moisture in your breath condenses more efficiently in the vicinity of the exhaust cloud. It’s that kind of effect.

[Geos]

Just went to get in my truck, have a nice dusting of ash on it.

 

Ditto here. 

 

I was watching it drift down in the backyard flood light last night.

 

Stayed warmer last night because of that smoke. Low of 62 only here. 

[TT-SEA]

Offshore flow is here... went from a little hazy to looking like the end of the world thanks to the fire near Chelan. The sun is still visible though!

 

Much better today as the east has surfaced here. The sky actually looks sort of blue.

 

Those towels on the deck from Sunday were still damp last night.   I bet they will be totally dry by noon today.

 

[MossMan]

Much better today as the east has surfaced here. The sky actually looks sort of blue.

 

Those towels on the deck from Sunday were still damp last night. I bet they will be totally dry by noon today.

 

Wow much better there! It’s still really bad up here.

[Front Ranger]

Just went to get in my truck, have a nice dusting of ash on it.

 

Your new location is racking up the accumulations already!

[Kayla]

Yeah, any amount of surface/near-surface moisture will increase the amount of energy required to heat the near surface boundary layer to a particular temperature. But since moisture can also increase buoyancy sufficiently in some cases, it might be that smoke modestly aids nucleation/condensation with the increased moisture presence, which in conjunction with modest upper level warming and reduced surface heating, helps perpetuate the inversion?

 

If you’ve ever used power tools w/ exhaust output on cool days, I’m sure you’ve noticed how the moisture in your breath condenses more efficiently in the vicinity of the exhaust cloud. It’s that kind of effect.

 

Good analogy! 

[Kayla]

PDX running +16 departure on the day. Gonna be a hot one  <_>

[TT-SEA]

500mb heights have trended higher for the weekend on the 12Z GFS.  

 

Rainfall looks sparse even for WA.  I was actually looking forward to a really good soaking like the 00Z ECMWF showed.   Hopefully the 12Z ECMWF still shows it.  

 

Here is Sunday from the 12Z run yesterday...

 

 

And from the new 12Z run today...

 

[TT-SEA]

Also looks WAY better at Lake Chelan this morning... I wonder if he decided to stay?

 

[Blizzard777]

Stepped out and tried to take a quick shot. Here is my attempt:

That is incredible

Your motivating me to get into another hobby!

[Timmy]

500mb heights have trended higher for the weekend on the 12Z GFS.

 

Rainfall looks sparse even for WA. I was actually looking forward to a really good soaking like the 00Z ECMWF showed. Hopefully the 12Z ECMWF still shows it.

 

Here is Sunday from the 12Z run yesterday...

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082012/gfs_z500_mslp_us_27.png[/img

 

And from the new 12Z run today...

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082112/gfs_z500_mslp_us_23.png

Wow dude you really like dry summers you need to stop it. You are making it worse.

[TT-SEA]

Wow dude you really like dry summers you need to stop it. You are making it worse.

 

Is this sarcasm?    I want it to rain on Sunday like the ECMWF showed.

 

The 12Z GFS looks more promising next week compared to its 00Z run.