2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

Shortest day of the year today with Winter Solstice at 8:19 PM.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rose Parade could get rained on for 2020, which is not something that happens too often.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's almost time for the longest shortest shadow of the year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Winter Solstice could end up being warmer than the Summer Solstice this year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Winter Solstice could end up being warmer than the Summer Solstice this year.

And it is. 74 F in Fullerton. June 21 wss only 72.

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 minutes to go.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Their clock on the server is way off.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's officially astronomical winter now. Looks to get off to a cold and rainy start here.

[Reg]

High clouds got thicker as the day progressed.

[Anti Marine Layer]

High clouds got thicker as the day progressed.

Regardless the shortest day of 2019 had a warmer high than the longest day of 2019, something that can only happen in mild climates.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Sunrise, sunset, and solar noon are all 30 seconds later tomorrow.

[Reg]

Regardless the shortest day of 2019 had a warmer high than the longest day of 2019, something that can only happen in mild climates.

 

Depends on the location. Further inland, June 21 still had a warmer high (by about 5 degrees) at most locations than today. I had a high of 76F on June 21st, while today it was only 71F. Similar highs in Temecula.

 

Granted, the coasts and coastal valleys are much milder.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like high clouds will move out prior to the storm.

[Thunder98]

I gotten 0.54'' of rain today with some heavy downpours earlier bumping up the storm totals today. I hope I do better tomorrow.

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Weatherwest posts pictures correctly.

 

Here I always need to do an edit from my Android to make them post correctly.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Interesting sky as the rain is still offshore.

 

[Reg]

Front moving slowly tonight. Remarkably clear skies outside right now, and still dry (getting static shocks every time I touch my car door handle).

[Reg]

Heavier rain predicted for Orange County now. Lucky you, Mr Marine Layer.

 

 

 

Heavier rainfall will be most likely in Orange County
with rainfall totals with this storm increased a bit from
previous forecasts, now forecasting 1.0-1.5 inches in that area,
with rainfall rates peaking around 0.50" per hour with any heavier
rain bands or small thunderstorm cells on Monday
afternoon/evening.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Very slow moving front.

[Reg]

The front has narrowed considerably after Ventura County.

 

Interesting views of the cloud deck from Santiago Peak tonight:

 

[Reg]

Rain finally spreading over Orange County now. Already raining up on Santiago Peak, but not the southern part of the Santa Ana Mountains or east of it yet.

[Reg]

Front widening again, surge of moisture feeding it off the coast all of a sudden. Still hasn't come east of the Santa Ana Mountains yet.

[Reg]

Almost here. Took its time.

 

Looking impressive, however:

[Reg]

Almost looking like a squall line. Rain currently reaching as far east as Lake Elsinore and Riverside in Riverside County, while it's just making landfall across most of San Diego County (except Camp Pendleton and Oceanside, where rain has already started falling).

 

 

This has to be one of the slowest-moving fronts I've ever seen. It has taken 12 hours for the front to get from the LA/Ventura County Line, to the Orange/Riverside County Line.

[Reg]

Finally starting to rain here. Winds have suddenly picked up and already gusting to 20mph at times.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Over an inch has fallen in John Wayne Airport. Downtown L.A. got over 1.5 inches.

[Anti Marine Layer]

We've gained 4 seconds of daylight since yesterday.

[Reg]

Wow. That line of heavy rain completely collapsed as it moved east over the Temecula Valley. Only 0.12" here and it stopped raining 20 minutes ago. Not the first time we've been short-changed like that.

 

[Thunder98]

The Fog is rolling in

 

 

[Reg]

Some moderate rain over the past hour, up to 0.24" now. Some areas to the east, like Anza and San Jacinto, are still at 0.00". Looks like the main front is almost past.

[Reg]

The massive differences in storm totals between LA/Ventura/Orange counties vs. IE and San Diego County reminds me strongly of the Typhoon Melor remnant storm we had in October 2009. Downtown L.A. recorded 2.07" from that storm, while I recorded a meager 0.06" from it in Murrieta. San Diego received only a trace from that storm. That still ranks #1 on my most disappointing storm list.

 

This storm isn't nearly as bad, but the differences are similarly quite substantial. I have 0.31", which doesn't quite meet predictions of between 0.50-1.00" here, however areas just north and west of me were much wetter. Downtown L.A. got over 1.5". Rain has now stopped, as the front has moved past us. Showers are still scattered behind the front, so more rain is possible.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201912231710-KSGX-SRUS46-RRMSGX

[FrostFuzz]

This upcoming system for Wednesday night and Thursday has been really fun to track, and probably an absolute nightmare for the NWS. As of the most recent model runs this system seems to give much of southern California (including the IE which isn't getting too much from this current system) very good rainfall totals. That being said there are a couple of factors that make this forecast uncertain even though it is very close. The main issue is that a surface low develops which means that the winds wrap around and actually come from an offshore direction. This "Santa Ana" effect can dry the lower levels, meaning that if the low is even a little bit further from the coast rainfall totals can be cut dramatically or even be removed entirely. Even 100 miles can make a huge difference, which is nothing compared to the scale of these storms.

 

My primary interest wrt this stems from the evaporation cooling potential. There's a non-zero chance parts of the IE sees some flurries with this system. So many things have to go right for that it really isn't likely at all, but it's still fun to track.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Very slow moving storm, once again. Annoyingly slow.

[Reg]

Still getting light rain, at 0.41" now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain picked up again over the last hour.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Raining hard again. For a while it was just light misty rain.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's absolutely pouring right now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nothing in Temecula?

[Reg]

Nothing in Temecula?

 

Rain during the evening was mostly light in Temecula, although somewhat heavier at my station. I ended up with 0.67" yesterday, falling within predictions after all. The last showers rolled through at 11:30 PM, nothing since then. Temecula ended up with 0.59". Lake Elsinore and Wildomar in the northern part of the valley were significantly wetter, with 1.38" and 1.92" respectively.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Dense fog this morning. What?