1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

[Clinton]

If these models verify I70 will be a mess Sat. afternoon for the Chiefs game.

[Stormhunter87]

If these models verify I70 will be a mess Sat. afternoon for the Chiefs game.

Yeah I would stay the hell way from I70 going be a nightmare.

[Hawkeye]

00z UK has dropped the northern edge down to join the other models around 0.20" for Cedar Rapids.  It had been higher for a few runs.

[james1976]

Every model is showing Missouri getting destroyed.
Every model is also showing me just barely on the north side of the sharp cutoff. Its amazing how that seems to happen all the time this season. Its been a season of really tough luck around here if you are a snow lover.

[Stormy]

That’s insane Hawkeye, you have never measured more than 11” from a storm?!? It seemed like all of iowa got destroyed from the winters in the mid to late 2000’s. Specifically I remember either 2008 or 09 you guys seemed to be the magnet for all major winter storms?!

Yes eastern Ia was a snow magnet in the winter of 2007-2008. If I remember right Iowa City had its snowiest winter on record. I think I measured 60"> that season, not really from huge snows, just many snow events. And I do remember big snowstorms crossing Mo. over the years.

[Stormy]

Yes eastern Ia was a snow magnet in the winter of 2007-2008. If I remember right Iowa City had its snowiest winter on record. I think I measured 60"> that season, not really from huge snows, just many snow events.

But a winter like that wouldn't be anything new for Michigan peeps.

[Grizzcoat]

On phone- but Euro back to being wetter for C.IA. 12Z = .26" for DSM now .46". The king is struggling with something, on to the short range guidance and radar trends.

[Grizzcoat]

[hlcater]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-90-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

I'm getting overdone vibes from that map. Has ratios of nearly 13-14:1, I have a hard time believing that.

[Grizzcoat]

Agree. Though it has 850 temps approaching the prime dendritic growth of -8C, being -6C to -7C for the bulk of the Qpf at kdsm. still concerning for many ( including me) is that cutoff.

[Tom]

In all honesty, I'm actually content that the KC region and MO are getting their snowstorm.  I know some of you in NE and IA haven't seen a big snowstorm in recent years, but the S MW has been hurt more often than not over the last number of years.  Not only that, but my LR forecast from a few weeks ago suggested a Plains system would target the region is verifying (around the 9th was my original call)... ...needless to say, I'm alright with scoring 1-2" and hopefully seeing flakes fly this weekend.

 

 

00z EPS did come back north about 25 miles with the 2" snow mean across Chicagoland compared to 00z the 18th.  S IA still in the game for a plowable event and into SE NE.

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...holding steady on the northern tier across NE/IA into IL...

[Clinton]

Up early I am like a kid on Christmas morning!  Good luck today everybody I hope we all get as much as possible.

[Tom]

06z FV3, come on baby, please get it right!  FWIW, maybe the model is to cold, but it is "seeing" the Lehs across Cook/Lake/DuPage county in NE IL.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Up early I am like a kid on Christmas morning!  Good luck today everybody I hope we all get as much as possible.

I'm happy for you Clinton and that goes for the rest of you guys down near KC who I know are lurking.  This is a sight for sore eyes.  One of the biggest snow storms in years may be developing.  Believe me, I've been touting this pattern would cycle back and I'm thrilled you guys are going to cash in.  Won't be the last!

[Tom]

06z RGEM still keeping hopes alive for the norther edge to deliver a couple inches for N IL...

 

[Tom]

LOT's updated graphic...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[Clinton]

LOT's updated graphic...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

Nice good luck!

[Tom]

Nice good luck!

Hoping to see some better trends in today's 12z suite of runs but not expecting much, if any, dramatic shifts...although, I think the northern edge may have better moisture transport but that cutoff will be nasty.

[Tom]

I'm not sure how to read this map but I'll post it to see if anyone can provide some insight...

 

 

[Clinton]

That is incredible, puts 15in down on my yard.  I am going to put snow blade on the tractor this morning.  We live on a farm and raise about 150 head of cattle, they are going to sh**

[Stormhunter87]

06z runs keeping that northern edge alive. Time for the short range models but either way going to be fun.

[Clinton]

Radar trends this morning closely resemble the NAM.

[gosaints]

I'm not sure how to read this map but I'll post it to see if anyone can provide some insight...

Without getting mathematically complex that is what they predict as a max scenario for those locations... 90th percentile

[Tom]

Without getting mathematically complex that is what they predict as a max scenario for those locations... 90th percentile

Ah, I gotcha...makes sense now...

[Minny_Weather]

The Euro is the lone wolf in moving the cutoff South of me so that's the good news.

 

K, it's time to stop looking at the global models. Mesoscale models all the way today boys.

[Stormhunter87]

Long range hrrr following the euro and has a late change over. I honestly don't see that happening. Kansas changes before us is hard to believe.

[Minny_Weather]

Long range hrrr following the euro and has a late change over. I honestly don't see that happening. Kansas changes before us is hard to believe.

Long range HRRR has been more unreliable than long range GFS this year.

 

It also butchers ratios. It'll be a wet snow but it won't be 4:1.

[Stormhunter87]

Long range HRRR has been more unreliable than long range GFS this year.

True. Side note 12z nam looking great

[Minny_Weather]

True. Side note 12z nam looking great

Numbers are good here, but that cutoff is so freakin close. I can't be happy about that.

[Stormhunter87]

Numbers are good here, but that cutoff is so freakin close. I can't be happy about that.

Yeah definitely seeing that sharp cut off, downside of being this far north of the low. The nice thing though is this storm is really tapping some moisture.

[Clinton]

12z Rap 21 hr

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2019011112/021/sn10_acc.conus.png

[Stormhunter87]

Very envious of Missouri people including my parents they are going get a good thumping of snow. Edit: hmmm pretty sharp cut-off in southern Missouri with the rain snow line.

[Stormhunter87]

Coming down to counties weeee. We get 4-7 but Omaha looking at 2-5. Lnk Lancaster has a sharp cut-off but looking great for you though.

[Clinton]

Lezak is now talking about thunder snow tonight, I can hope!

[Stormhunter87]

Lezak is now talking about thunder snow tonight, I can hope!

 

I have experienced that twice and back in a storm in either 09 or 13 I saw lighting that was crazy. Definitely a fun experience with thunder snow.

[bud2380]

Extremely sharp cutoff on the NAM. That never ends well for those on the fringe. Usually ends up further south than models show.

[Hawkeye]

Tom, the 06z euro maps you posted earlier say 00z on them.

[Tom]

Tom, the 06z euro maps you posted earlier say 00z on them.

My bad, I didn't realize that...here is the 06z...

[Minny_Weather]

God I hate this ******* cutoff. I'm South of it but it's in my county on 3km NAM.