1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

[FV-Mike]

Part of the update from LOT. Still going with a general 1-3 for the Chicagoland area.

 

in a nutshell, the latest forecast update is not a whole lot
different than the going forecast.  The main area of change as far
as snowfall amounts are concerned will be to spread some slightly
higher snowfall amounts from the I-88 corridor up to the Wisconsin
border, which reflects the idea of the GFS shifting forcing on a
more northerly track, which is in better agreement with the other
models.  Liquid to snow ratios have been a particular challenge.
Since the environment in advance of the system will be particularly
cold through the deep layer, ie. 700mb temps arnd -6C, expect that
liquid to snow ratios should be a bit lower than climatology.  Snow
is still expected to reach the far swrn portions of the CWA by arnd
midnight Friday night, but with liquid to snow ratios arnd 8-9:1.
Deep layer cooling should occur overnight Friday night and into
Saturday morning, increasing liquid to snow ratios to 12-13:1
through the day on Saturday

[Minny_Weather]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

332 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

 

...Accumulating Snow to Impact the Area Friday Night into Saturday

Morning...

 

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093-110545-

/O.NEW.KOAX.WW.Y.0001.190112T0000Z-190112T1800Z/

Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Saunders-Douglas-

Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-

Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-

Including the cities of Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Red Oak,

Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, Wahoo,

Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista, Seward,

Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, Crete, Wilber,

Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn, Pawnee City,

Table Rock, and Falls City

332 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST

SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches

expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska and

southwest Iowa.

 

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to noon CST Saturday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The

hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Seems like OAX is agreeing with the farther North solutions, considering Saunders county is included in the action too.

[Stormhunter87]

Seems like OAX is agreeing with the farther North solutions, considering Saunders county is included in the action too.

So playing it safe still on 2-4 I would say 3-6. If the northern area develops like the nam then we could see up to 8

[Grizzcoat]

[Minny_Weather]

So playing it safe still on 2-4 I would say 3-6. If the northern area develops like the nam then we could see up to 8

I'd say less than 3" is still a very reasonable outcome should a late changeover (HRRR) or dry air (GFS) come into the picture as well. 2-4" is a good start and they'll update in the morning if need be.

[james1976]

Bad trends for up here. Very good chance I won't see a single flake.

[jaster220]

Bad trends for up here. Very good chance I won't see a single flake.

 

Nothing-burgered in Marshall as well..

[Stormhunter87]

I'd say less than 3" is still a very reasonable outcome should a late changeover (HRRR) or dry air (GFS) come into the picture as well. 2-4" is a good start and they'll update in the morning if need be.

I'm on the fence about thermals. The storm is interesting to me on the theramls. The dry air is definitely a concern but I don't think it as big an issue here as further east in Iowa. I could definitely be reading this storm wrong but we will see.

[Stormhunter87]

3k really got on board this run and added way more moisture.

[jzuzphreek]

NWS Discussion for Kansas City 

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

357 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

 

.Discussion...

Issued at 330 PM CST THU JAN 10 2019

 

Surface troughing just west of the forecast area giving a steady

dose of southerly winds through the day, and despite that, as well

as the mid level ridging we are only seeing modest temperature

recovery today, with highs maxing out around 40 degrees. Upstream

of the mid level ridging a fairly amplified trough is coming

onshore along the Pacific coast and will slowly lumber eastward

through the night tonight into Friday. This trough will become the

next weather maker for the entirety of the forecast area, likely

Friday night into Saturday.

 

As a surface trough closes off over the Texas Panhandle southerly

flow ahead of the trough will push a good slug of moisture

northward into the Missouri River Valley. Initially this moisture

will take the form of thickening low level clouds, but will

eventually begin precipitating as saturation deepens through the

day on Friday. The inverted, slightly closed off surface trough

will stay adequately far enough south to keep the bulk of the

warmest air to the south. S/SE surface winds will gradually become

more E/NE as the trough pivots eastward through the day on Friday.

This will stymie any further warming on Friday, and in fact begin

a cooling process that should gradually convert the lightly

falling precipitation into light snow. The exact timing of this

change over is a little uncertain at this point, as much will have

to do with how dry and cool the thermal profile during the early

stages of the event is. Should wetbulb temperatures be below zero

(which is a strong possibility) expect dynamic cooling from the

falling precipitation and perhaps a quicker changeover to snow

sometime Friday evening. That being said, model guidance still

suggests that temperatures will be very close to freezing, and

thus may have a hard time completely converting to snow in any

impactful way prior to late Friday evening. GFS and ECMWF still

hanging onto a "warmer" solution which should go through a slower

transition, while the NAM and even the early stages of the HRRR

are indicating a rather rapid changeover to all snow. Should that

dynamic cooling and quicker changeover occur, we could be looking

at amounts a bit higher than this forecast package indicates.

 

In the mid levels the aforementioned Pacific coast trough will

deepen and take on a neutral or perhaps even a slightly negative

tilt as it lumbers eastward. Ahead of the trough, the low level

cyclone will usher good moisture into the area, which would serve

as ample fuel for steady precipitation. With good warm air

advection and isentropic ascent ahead of the trough saturating the

atmosphere prior to the mid level trough`s arrival it could spell

a prolonged period of precipitation, on the order of 24 to 36

hours. Not all of this will be in the form of snow, as mentioned

above, there will be lots of time spent adequately saturating the

column to produce ice and then cooling the column adequately to

sustain snow to the surface. However, there could be a period on

Friday and then again on Saturday afternoon/evening when

precipitation could come more in a wintry mix, as opposed to

steady snow. The time period most likely to see the steady snow

will be Friday evening through Saturday morning. And since this

trough is not overly progressive precipitation should linger into

Saturday. One other note about Saturday is the surface

temperatures. While we hesitated to make any large scale changes

to the forecast HIs for Saturday, we did nudge HIs a little lower,

mainly due to the steady N/NE flow through the day, thick cloud

cover, ongoing precipitation, and the still low sun angle. So,

while previous forecast packages indicated a warming through the

day on Saturday and perhaps more of a rain/drizzle, the lower

temperatures brings more into play light snow or perhaps some

light freezing drizzle through the day on Saturday.

 

As for snow amounts, given the marginal thermal profile for

efficient snow making, have opted for snow ratios generally

ranging from 9:1 to 11:1 for the initial few hours of the event,

increasing to around 12:1 to 13:1 overnight Friday night, as the

thermal column continues to cool. Despite the 1/2" to 3/4" of QPF,

that has yielded more of a 3 to 5 inch range for snow accumulation

across the entire area. Further east, where temps start out a

little cooler and where QPF is a little higher snow accumulations

should be a tad higher, with perhaps 5 to 7 inches across portions

of C MO. Have opted to issue a Winter Storm Warning for 7 counties

in C MO where snow accumulations appear to be highest, with all

other counties receiving Winter Weather Advisories primarily for

snowfall, as well as mixed precipitation. With the event still 18

to 24 hours from really getting going, we could see the Headlines

tweaked a little as hi-res models become more available.

 

Once the precipitation moves out on Saturday evening and Saturday

night, expect a dry forecast for the next several days with

daytime highs through the upcoming week struggling to reach the

middle 40s.URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory for KC/Central MO

 

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

328 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

 

...Heavy Snow Expected Across Central Missouri Friday Night and

Saturday...

 

.A winter storm system will move across the region Friday into

Saturday. Precipitation will begin as rain, before transitioning

to snow in the afternoon and evening hours, Friday. Periods of

moderate to heavy snow is likely Friday night into Saturday

across central Missouri. The heaviest accumulations will occur

after sunset, Friday, and through sunrise Saturday. Expect light

snow to continue into the day on Saturday and taper off by

Saturday night.

 

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>006-011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-

043-044-053-054-111100-

/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0001.190112T0000Z-190113T0000Z/

Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-

Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Holt-

Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-

Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-

Johnson MO-Bates-Henry-

Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,

Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Wathena, Elwood, Troy,

Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,

Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,

Lenexa, Tarkio, Rockport, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, Albany,

Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Oregon,

Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa,

Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale,

Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph,

Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,

Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside,

Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs,

Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa,

Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore,

Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian,

Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor

328 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST

SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5

inches expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and

north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

 

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mixed precipitation may bookend the snow

both on Friday and on Saturday. Some minor glazing of surfaces

will be possible Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. Plan

on slippery road conditions.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

[GDR]

[GDR]

[Clinton]

653DBCC3-8BB1-47E7-8062-61B51D1F2AEC.png

Can you show a map of Missouri with this info?

[jzuzphreek]

Can you show a map of Missouri with this info?

[GDR]

[Stormhunter87]

00z nam looking good for here so far. The cut of is much sharper now.

[Stormy]

[Clinton]

00z NAM is pure gold!

[Minny_Weather]

00z NAM is pure gold!

That cutoff is making me clench my a** cheeks

[Clinton]

That cutoff is making me clench my a** cheeks

I bet! If I remember right there was a sharp northern cutoff on Nov 25th in the last cycle.

[Hawkeye]

Models seem to be settling on 0.15-0.25" for Cedar Rapids.  I guess that counts for a big snowstorm this winter.

[Tom]

18z Euro...@ Clinton, your looking golden and so are those in and around the KC region...

[Clinton]

18z Euro...@ Clinton, your looking golden and so are those in and around the KC region...

Wow we are talking about 2/3 of my average seasonal total in one snow!  Thanks for posting the Euro!

[bud2380]

RGEM with 5” up to I80 in eastern Iowa.

[Clinton]

00z RGEM

[Tom]

Wow we are talking about 2/3 of my average seasonal total in one snow! Thanks for posting the Euro!

The Kuchera totals off the 12z Euro are wild. Hopefully you can get some good banding to set up over your area.

[Clinton]

The Kuchera totals off the 12z Euro are wild. Hopefully you can get some good banding to set up over your area.

Yes and it looks like the heaviest snow will fall while its dark to help accumulations.

[GDR]

Canadian south in iowa

[Hawkeye]

I can't say I'm too excited about this.  1-2" is probably what we can expect in CR.  The northern edge should be pretty close.  Watch parts of Missouri get 12+ inches, something I've never seen in my entire life.

[GDR]

Man sharp cut offs in iowa

[Grizzcoat]

After 00z models tonight, imo I think it's time to focus on short range models and radar trends. Good Luck to everyone!!

[Stormhunter87]

GFS still has a some what stronger north side. Going to interesting to watch for sure.

[Hawkeye]

No offense, but how long have you been alive?  During the 2011 GHD storm, there were parts of Missouri that got over 20 inches of snow.  I was in Chicago for that one.  But Missouri got pounded too. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/groundhog_blizzardDuring 2013 and 2014, I got a foot of snow at my house in the south burbs of KC in a couple of different storms.  It's really not that unusual (though not typical either). 

 

I'm 44, lived my entire life in Cedar Rapids.  I've never measured over 11" or so from any storm.

[gabel23]

I'm 44, lived my entire life in Cedar Rapids. I've never measured over 11" or so from any storm.

That’s insane Hawkeye, you have never measured more than 11” from a storm?!? It seemed like all of iowa got destroyed from the winters in the mid to late 2000’s. Specifically I remember either 2008 or 09 you guys seemed to be the magnet for all major winter storms?!

[Clinton]

CMC stays consistent.

[Minny_Weather]

Yup. Another 2-3 incher here.

[clintbeed1993]

Yup. Another 2-3 incher here.

 

Same ole . Haven't had over 3 inches in any one event all season.  Pathetic.

[Stormhunter87]

Yup. Another 2-3 incher here.

You know Jim flowers used to have a rule called barbs rule, the models start bouncing keep the run at 72 hours out. That was a good few runs on at that hour. Either way I'll be happy. Wife has a job that morning so less snow means she won't have.to cancel.

[Minny_Weather]

Same ole s**t. Haven't had over 3 inches in any one event all season.  Pathetic.

Haven't even gotten over 4" here in one event since GHD 2016.

[Clinton]

The FV3 was the first model to pick up on this storm so it deserves to verify.