1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

[gabel23]

God I hate this f***** cutoff. I'm South of it but it's in my county on 3km NAM.

Try being on the north end of the cut off. I'm looking at nothing to maybe 2". Slight shift and I could see 3+, just have to ride the darn line! 

[Minny_Weather]

Try being on the north end of the cut off. I'm looking at nothing to maybe 2". Slight shift and I could see 3+, just have to ride the darn line! 

For you and I's sake let's hope radar trends end up North of where the models are putting the dry air. I don't really see the models changing much in the next 8 or so hours, which is when we'll need to really pay attention to radar trends and put down the models.

[CentralNebWeather]

God I hate this f***** cutoff. I'm South of it but it's in my county on 3km NAM.

I'm with you.  About 20 miles south of me could get 6" and I am maybe 1-3" but Hastings says the northern edge may get hit by dry air and limit much accumulation.  I was never expecting much from this storm for my area, next weekend looks a lot more promising around Central Nebraska.  My brother in KC should do well with this storm today and tomorrow.

[james1976]

Good luck everyone. A few of you look to get clobbered! I hope to see some thundersnow reports.

Jim Cantore all the way!

[Minny_Weather]

I'm with you.  About 20 miles south of me could get 6" and I am maybe 1-3" but Hastings says the northern edge may get hit by dry air and limit much accumulation.  I was never expecting much from this storm for my area, next weekend looks a lot more promising around Central Nebraska.  My brother in KC should do well with this storm today and tomorrow.

Hey I'm gonna be in Fargo next weekend so this would be a perfect opportunity for a storm to hit here!

[mlgamer]

Hey all!  The weeks and weeks of nice weather made me nearly forget about winter!

 

I haven't been too excited about this storm so far. Snowfall forecast maps in recent days have often visualized the radioactive snow dome that sits over my house by frequently placing a donut hole around my area. Pretty marginal temps for this one so I am expecting an inch or two of slop when it's all said and done. Looks like folks to the east could cash in though.

 

Obviously, I set my expectations pretty low so I am never disappointed at the outcome.

[Hawkeye]

Models are pretty stable for the Cedar Rapids area.  The average is around 0.20-0.25".  The HRRR is driest with about 0.15".  One or two models have 0.30".  It seems reasonable to expect 2" here.

[Clinton]

15z RAP

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011115&fh=38&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sn10_acc&m=rap

[Stormhunter87]

15z RAP

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011115&fh=38&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sn10_acc&m=rap

Oh I like that run. Great development up this way.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR/RAP are initializing temps horribly. HRRR has it being nearly 40 by 11, it's 33.3*F on my balcony right now.

[Tony]

06z FV3, come on baby, please get it right!  FWIW, maybe the model is to cold, but it is "seeing" the Lehs across Cook/Lake/DuPage county in NE IL.

 

 

 

I think lake enhanced snow might be our only shot at getting any appreciable snow this far north so let's keep our fingers crossed

[Hawkeye]

12z UK back north and juiced vs 00z.  Cedar Rapids up to about 0.35" while Omaha is near 0.50".

[hlcater]

Why is it that my back yard is literally always on a razor cutoff?

[Stormhunter87]

Local forecasters are fighting it but inching their totals up.

[Minny_Weather]

Thermals are becoming a bigger b**** than they were originally supposed to be. There will be a changeover, but ratios are going to be a major problem with this one.

[snowstorm83]

HRRR/RAP are initializing temps horribly. HRRR has it being nearly 40 by 11, it's 33.3*F on my balcony right now.

Going to have a hard time reaching 40 at all with cloud cover. Also anyone know why KLNK sometimes reports clear skies when it's actually overcast?

[Hawkeye]

12z UK.... a more detailed map from weather.us.  It has the 0.40" line from Omaha to CR.  Oddly, the meteo and weather.us maps don't always look the same.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Going to have a hard time reaching 40 at all with cloud cover. Also anyone know why KLNK sometimes reports clear skies when it's actually overcast?

Don't know why. Beatrice is doing the same thing.

[Stormhunter87]

First showers showing up south of here. Currently at 36 high is forecast 38 but don't really think we will get there.

[hlcater]

Like I was saying earlier,

[Minny_Weather]

First showers showing up south of here. Currently at 36 high is forecast 38 but don't really think we will get there.

We might climb a couple more degrees due to the South flow, but not to the magnitude HRRR is wanting us to warm up to.

[Hawkeye]

Like I was saying earlier,

 

Yeah.  I'm sticking with 2" in my yard.

[Stormhunter87]

We might climb a couple more degrees due to the South flow, but not to the magnitude HRRR is wanting us to warm up to.

Definitely agree. We are not close enough to the low for wrap in warm air. Plus the storm is pulling the cold air down. It's snowing already near St. Louis. My radar app also showing the light stuff out west as snow. Edit: Columbia is showing the change over already

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

 

Bulk of forecast remains unchanged. We could see some 2 to 5 inch

snow amounts in the area along and just south of Interstate 80 -

with potent for locally higher amounts due to banding. At this

time we think the highest total amounts would stay south of

Lincoln and Omaha/Council Bluffs.

 

[bud2380]

UK came back north.

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Fwiw- Euro way juiced

[Stormhunter87]

Can someone post the euro map?

[Minny_Weather]

Can someone post the euro map?

I'm reluctant to post it because global models are worthless at this point. I'll post it just for funsies though. Keep in mind this is 10:1 so actual amounts may be a bit less.

[bud2380]

I only have weather.us but Euro is looking further north through 5am tomorrow, which is as far as I can see for now.  STL area still gets the brunt of the storm though.  

[Grizzcoat]

Actually here in C.Ia the Euro has 850s from -5 to -7C ,which should equal higher than 10:1

[hlcater]

I only have weather.us but Euro is looking further north through 5am tomorrow, which is as far as I can see for now.  STL area still gets the brunt of the storm though.  

Absolutely is. CID gets over 0.4" QPF and DSM gets over 0.5" QPF. Much further north and much more juiced.

[jcwxguy]

Can someone post the euro map?

[Grizzcoat]

I can post some raw #s. Just give me time to get home to desktop

[Stormhunter87]

Oh very interesting. Thank you for posting all. Wish I could access it but no funds to buy access. Anywho I like the trend hrrr is also starting to change up.

[Hawkeye]

And here's the weather.us euro snow precip map.  I hope the globals are right.

 

[james1976]

6" up to I80. Nice

[bud2380]

I think the lowest model output for my area is 3" and the high is about 6".  So I'm hoping 3-4" is in the cards.  

[Hawkeye]

I think the lowest model output for my area is 3" and the high is about 6".  So I'm hoping 3-4" is in the cards.  

 

For us it's anything from 1-4".  The entire range qualifies as a small storm, but 3-4" is way better than 1-2".

[Bryan1117]

Looking like 2 to 4 inches is a really good bet for Omaha from this one... I will take it!

[Stormhunter87]

The inching continues oax is now 2-6 and says the possibility of a very heavy band or bands going through. https://www.weather.gov/oax/weatherstory