Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Clinton]

GDPS in Kuchera.

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019011700/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Grizzcoat]

UKMET pound town C.IA to E.IA

[Grizzcoat]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This is quite rude but after this display, it's probably warranted. Craig has no business running a social media weather page based on his performance on here. Neither do I, but I don't have a social media page for that reason. The "Snow Day" page is detrimental to actively and accurately warning the public of the storm's potential impacts. He can't provide the type of analysis that would be beneficial and compliment the work of the NWS/local media so in all honesty, he should just not have a facebook page at all. 

Thank you, glad you could give me your opinion lol. Want a cookie? I did say I did not believe the totals would come true, not my fault people want to believe it.

[Grizzcoat]

Thank you, glad you could give me your opinion lol. Want a cookie? I did say I did not believe the totals would come true, not my fault people want to believe it.

"Not my fault people want to believe it"

the most asinine thing I have heard in while. 12-18" Coming from a "weather" site? ( I use that term lightly) -- what do you expect the non-weather people to think?? I'am done with this subject but I support those whom think it's wrong to post such totals that far in advance.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

"Not my fault people want to believe it"

the most asinine thing I have heard in while. 12-18" Coming from a "weather" site? ( I use that term lightly) -- what do you expect the non-weather people to think?? I'am done with this subject but I support those whom think it's wrong to post such totals that far in advance.

 

 

Good, glad your done now! Let's talk about the storm shall we?

[Hawkeye]

00z UK... obviously, I'd love this

 

[Grizzcoat]

another ukmet map -- they don't always mirror each other for some reason.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

another ukmet map -- they don't always mirror each other for some reason.PA_000-072_0000.gif

That seems a lot juicier then the 18z.

[Grizzcoat]

What a difference for most of SD between the UKie and GFS....

[Grizzcoat]

That seems a lot juicier then the 18z.

Ukie only runs 00Z and 12Z as far as i know. That was the 18Z Canadian I posted earlier.

[jcwxguy]

Fv3

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3

Based on what my sister-in-law told us from the last storm I don't think St. Louis could handle another blast like that.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro seems like 12Z-- pretty weak sauce.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro

Not any better then 12z. Great lol. I sure hope NAM will EVENTUALLY be onto something.

[james1976]

Everything is great and then the King shows up lol

[james1976]

Although it should still be snowing in some areas yet

[james1976]

Des Moines talking potential 20 to 23:1 ratios in N IA. What?!

[Stormhunter87]

Each nam run getting better. Hmmm hard to believe it.

[Grizzcoat]

NAM ? Is it real or is it Memorex? (that dates me) 

[snowstorm83]

It's always a party when you're with the 06z nam!

[Grizzcoat]

You'd pretty much have to be partying to be watching at this hour/

 

Cheers!

[Stormhunter87]

You'd pretty much have to be partying to be watching at this hour/

 

Cheers!

Lol can't sleep plus I'm on baby duty.

[Stormhunter87]

14 inches wtf. Either the nam is drunk or since it's on shore it has some good data.

[Grizzcoat]

Nam raises the EURO "ALL IN" only holding a pair of deuces --- fun to look at -- can't remember the last time I even looked at something like this no matter what model..

 

06Z 

[Stormhunter87]

3k is also going bonkers

[Grizzcoat]

One would normally discount the 06Z nam  (and 3KM)  other than the fact the 18Z and 00Z show the same pattern. And the idea it has the golden shovel award literally IMBY. 

[Grizzcoat]

[james1976]

That is nuts. No wonder I cant sleep!

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

 RDPS--

[ToastedRavs]

Des Moines mentions 1 to 2 inch per hour rates in latest discussion. LOVE THAT. during the commute too....should be interesting

[Tom]

Rise and Shine!  Things are coming together for this system to deliver quite a dumping of snow across the MW.  I'm loving the higher rez models all picking up on a fairly wide front band of snow across our region.  The devil will be in the details but I like IA scoring Bigly and then weaken some into N IL, but don't discount parts of Chicago squeezing out 6"+ out of this.  The reason why I'm believing the higher rez models is they typically do much better ironing out placement and strength of these meso scale bands that are poised to set up with this system.  1-2"+/hr snowfall rates is not out of the question and if you can sit underneath one of those pivoting bands...your golden.

 

LOT's update is as good as it gets over here with a 1-2 punch from system snow and then the real potential for heavy Lake Effect Snow!  This LES set is looking amazing.  @ IllinoisWx, this one could be one hellova event for us amigo!  I've experienced several intense LES events while living here, but this one has me quite intrigued.  After a very warm December and nearly ice free lake and relatively warm waters, this is bound to deliver the goods around here for patiently waiting for the prime setup.  Not to mention, the Lehs signal is definitely looking great as well.

 

 

 

There is some increasing concern for heavy snow associated with
the band of snow Friday night over northern IL. Given the good
feed of moisture into the area, with 700 mb mixing ratios
expected to be around 2.8 g/kg,this should result in some effect
snowfall. This should especially be the case given that the
frontogenetic forcing for ascent looks to produce good ascent
right through the favored dendritic growth zone. With all this in
mind, along with the fact that we should have fairly high snow
ratios of 14-16 to 1, we could easily see some areas of northern
IL end up with 6+ inches of snow through Saturday morning.
Thereafter, the main synoptic snow should begin to focus over my
southern CWA by Saturday afternoon, where amounts here in the 4"
to 6" range appear probable through Saturday evening. Increasing
northeast winds during the day Saturday, may also result in some
blowing and drifting snow issues, especially in open areas.

The next concern will be the lake effect snow following the main
system snow. While some lake enhancement could keep light snow
going over portions of northeastern IL Saturday afternoon, it
appears that the better thermodyamics set up for heavy lake
effect snow may hold off until sometime late Saturday evening or
night. Strong lake induced instability is likely to setup over
southern Lake Michigan Saturday night through Sunday as 850 mb
temps drop to around -18C, essentially setting up ~20C
temperature differences between the lake temperature. Inversion
heights should reach around 6000-6500 feet, which should cut right
through the dendritic growth zone, so this should be sufficient
to support heavy lake effect snow. While the specifics will take
time to iron out, the synoptic pressure pattern of low pressure
moving up the east coast and a strong surface high building over
the Upper Midwest looks favorable for the potential development of
a single band of heavy lake effect snow. This band looks to start
over northeastern IL Saturday night into Sunday morning, before
gradually shifting over northwestern IN during the day Sunday. The
main question that remains is residence time of the band over any
given area, which will have large implications on the amount of
snow that falls.

A winter storm watch may be needed for parts of northern IL, north
of I-80 from Friday night into Saturday, with the watch possibly
being needed for far northeastern IL through Sunday morning, due
to the continued lake effect threat. We have opted to hold off on
any headline at this time though, to let the day shift get another
look at this snow event.

 

 

First "Heavy Snow" wording of the season in my grid forecast....always gives me goosebumps and never gets old...

 

Friday

A 40 percent chance of snow after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday

Snow. High near 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[jcwxguy]

06 gfs

[Tom]

Several models starting to spit out .75"+ qpf across NE IL which is a clear signal Lehs is trending better and better.  I'm digging this.

 

 

 

06z NAM 3km through the main synoptic/Lehs snowfall...NE IL is going to do good IMHO...IA looks golden with this system.  Finally, DSM and those who have been missed by some big systems are gearing up for a major snowstorm.  @ Grizz, you getting fired up yet??  I know its Thursday but the trends are really looking positive for DSM.

 

[Tom]

06z RGEM...juiced as usual and another model indicating the real potential with the placement of the heavier swaths of snow.  Still snowing at the end of this run across.

 

 

[Tom]

While not as juiced as the other higher rez guidance, the 06z Euro agreeing with the general placement of the heavier swaths of snow.  Locally, Lehs thru Sat afternoon showing up on the Euro.

[Tom]

RPM Model agreeing with the other CAM models on placement of the heavy swath of snow across portions of E NE/IA and into N IL.  I couldn't see where the snow set up in other parts of our sub.  Widespread 6"+ across IA and a band of 4-7" in N IL through Sat pm (not including LES Sat pm - Sun).  I wouldn't be surprised if a WSW start c

[dubuque473]

I will take it. Winds up to 25mph Friday night should make it interesting.