Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[bud2380]

Go NAM Go!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011618/069/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Stormhunter87]

Definitely an Iowa storm. Still not thrilled here but better. Anywho hopefully it plays out well for the Iowa people.

[Tony]

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_069.gif

Little farther north and a better attempt at a phase

 

Edit: Just a thing of beauty taking shape on the 18z Nam run. Hopefully just a beginning of things to come as this model is seeing what can happen when everything starts to line up on the playing field.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Definitely a lot better for Omaha too! The northern part of the system seems to be inching south.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011618/075/snku_acc.us_c.png

[james1976]

That northern edge can stay away now!

[Grizzcoat]

$100 says DMX says something along these lines, " though the 18z NAM shows a more phased / wetter soultion it's an outlier at this point and we'll wait for future model packages."

[Craig-OmahaWX]

$100 says DMX says something along these lines, " though the 18z NAM shows a more phased / wetter soultion it's an outlier at this point and we'll wait for future model packages."

Usually afternoon discussions dont even discuss the 18z runs. Doesn't mean you cant take it into account.

[bud2380]

DVN

 

 

As for snowfall amounts, most areas should see 4 to 6 inches. South
of I-80 there is a potential for more than 6 inches of snow. Since
snow/rain ratios will be increasing through the event, snowfall
amounts may trend higher in some areas.

[Stormhunter87]

Icon develops two heavy bands of snow and then takes off. Hmmm. 3k nam laughs at the possibility of a storm.

[East Dubzz]

Uh oh, this things needs to chill and not go any further south. That northern edge is uncomfortably close on the NAM.

[jcwxguy]

18z icon

[East Dubzz]

18z icon

That’s just the weirdest looking storm ever.

[james1976]

I dont put much stock in the Icon

[hlcater]

Good thing the icon probably has the right idea like it normally does.

[Stormhunter87]

Wow GFS way stronger and further north.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS stepping towards NAM

[Tony]

GFS stepping towards NAM

Yep, looking like it wants to phase...baby stepping with the 18z runs.

[tbone8]

GFS still showing a significant thorm behind this one, pert near same track but with a little more punch...

[jcwxguy]

Wow GFS way stronger and further north.

[Jaycee]

Hope I can get some LES from this. Have yet to ever experience it in my lifetime and I really wanna see it work it's magic! if this thing can phase quicker, I think 95% of this forum benefits. Let's hope the 18z models are somehow onto something. 

[james1976]

Seeing both NAM and GFS upticking has to be a good sign. Still 2 days out yet though!

[East Dubzz]

Good write-up on the storm:

 

https://www.latlmes.com/science/huge-midwest-storm-1

[Stormhunter87]

Good write-up on the storm:

https://www.latlmes.com/science/huge-midwest-storm-1

Very insightful.

[Stacsh]

Very insightful

 

I sat there for a minute thinking it was an ad before the article lol

[jzuzphreek]

Good write-up on the storm:

 

https://www.latlmes.com/science/huge-midwest-storm-1

I've never seen it explained that way. Can't wait for this to ramp up and get rolling! Looks like no matter how it ends up, my area should at least end up with something. I'm expecting anywhere between 2 to 10 inches.

[Stormhunter87]

I sat there for a minute thinking it was an ad before the article lol

Lol sadly it does nothing to help my feelings on this storm.

[Niko]

Accumulations have been lowered due to no phase, but, there is still time for adjustments.

[bud2380]

SREF plumes are averaging around 7" for Cedar Rapids with a high of 13".  Higher than I expected.  

[Minny_Weather]

Good write-up on the storm:

 

https://www.latlmes.com/science/huge-midwest-storm-1

That's about the best thing I've ever seen come out of the LA Times.

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 hr 66 500 vort and qpf

[Tony]

Fv3 hr 66 500 vort and qpf

Stronger and north which has been the trend of the 18z runs

[bud2380]

FV3 lookin' alright. And this is 10:1

 

[hlcater]

FV3 lookin' alright. And this is 10:1

 

 

That's a 6-8"er for much of Iowa. Nice to see!

[Grizzcoat]

The less severe Arctic cold behind this system appears to be allowing it to trend N.

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3 lookin' alright. And this is 10:1

 

Actually a good hit for Central Nebraska. I’d take it.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says the storm will give Central Nebraska 1” or less of snow. Ok then.

[Stormhunter87]

NWS Hastings says the storm will give Central Nebraska 1” or less of snow. Ok then.

OAX only going 2-4 and guiding lower. Waiting for the 00z but not hopeful.

[Stacsh]

GRR says 1-4

[snowstorm83]

OAX only going 2-4 and guiding lower. Waiting for the 00z but not hopeful.

2-4" may be high at this point, maybe more like 1-2". We'll see if 00z runs will be the nail in the coffin or not.

[jcwxguy]

18z fv3