Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[jlp]

The RGEM kinda looks like a cutter, Sw-ne. Looking forward to see what this LE can produce.

[jcwxguy]

While not as juiced as the other higher rez guidance, the 06z Euro agreeing with the general placement of the heavier swaths of snow. Locally, Lehs thru Sat afternoon showing up on the Euro.

those both are 00z

[jcwxguy]

RPM Model agreeing with the other CAM models on placement of the heavy swath of snow across portions of E NE/IA and into N IL. I couldn't see where the snow set up in other parts of our sub. Widespread 6"+ across IA and a band of 4-7" in N IL through Sat pm (not including LES Sat pm - Sun). I wouldn't be surprised if a WSW start c

what parts of eastern Nebraska

[dubuque473]

DVN mentions “at least 18:1 ratios”

[Tom]

those both are 00z

Ah crap, ya, glad you saw that...I clicked on the 06z/18z tab and just didn't pay attention if it loaded or not.  I'll delete the post and when the new run comes in I'll try to post it.

[Tom]

what parts of eastern Nebraska

I briefly saw the map and the heavier band came close to OMA...

[Grizzcoat]

Tom- The "Grizz" has been fired up since I woke up out of hibernation in OCT. Even if this system goes Euro- I'am still super excited. Winter Weather is my 2nd marriage.

[jcwxguy]

06 euro

[Grizzcoat]

In 6 hours that Euro is stepping towards other guidance.  The King might have a coup on his/her hands,

[Clinton]

06 euro

Would you be able to show Missouri?  Thanks in advance.

[jcwxguy]

Would you be able to show Missouri? Thanks in advance.

here

[shakjen]

Of course I am in between both bands of the heavier snow.

[james1976]

I am wayyyyy excited about this. I got to bed late and could hardly sleep and got up early this morning to check all the updates. I'm wired! First potential biggie over here. DMX has issued a WWA for 4-6" but says locally higher and likely upgrade to a warning. Nice to see 06 Euro a lil more juiced. Lots of consistency with the models. Bring it!

[Cfweather]

I am wayyyyy excited about this. I got to bed late and could hardly sleep and got up early this morning to check all the updates. I'm wired! First potential biggie over here. DMX has issued a WWA for 4-6" but says locally higher and likely upgrade to a warning. Nice to see 06 Euro a lil more juiced. Lots of consistency with the models. Bring it!

They initially issued a watch and then backed it off to align with other forecast offices. Or at least I think they did? I could have sworn it said watch when I looked at 4am but maybe it was half-asleep-wishful-thinking

[Stormy]

[FV-Mike]

I have been in Southern California this week for work. Headed back to Chicago this morning. Excited for this storm. I may be too far west for the lake effect but it think downtown scores big.

[Stormy]

I haven’t had much time following this forum the past few days. To busy trying to get things done before real winter settles in the next few weeks! Today is looking like another dreary one with fog currently.

[james1976]

They initially issued a watch and then backed it off to align with other forecast offices. Or at least I think they did? I could have sworn it said watch when I looked at 4am but maybe it was half-asleep-wishful-thinking

Their morning discussion says likely upgrade to warning by this afternoon or night.

[BMT]

point forecast for CR up to 7".   liking the trends!

[Stormhunter87]

OAX going 2-5 here with a WWA. They aren't buying the NAM.

[james1976]

I like how the NAM keeps getting wetter but offices dont seem to buy it. Be funny if that model won out.

[Stormhunter87]

I like how the NAM keeps getting wetter but offices dont seem to buy it. Be funny if that model won out.

Not only would I love to see those totals, but seeing the reactions from the offices would be funny.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam looking a bit further south but developing the moisture sooner.

[Stormy]

Hi guys, this is a great example of how the LRC can help when the models seem lost. Using the LRC there are several thing we know should happen this weekend.

-We know there should be a strong and well organized storm in the middle of the country, providing near blizzard conditions.

-We know there should be a very strong push of artic air behind this system.

Stay strong folks the models will correct themselves, most likely sometime today.

So using the LRC as a guide, is this weekends storm cycling from the November 25th or early December storm? And if the LRC is reliable then the storms in the next several weeks should be moving across the southern states like it did for most of December and be a dryer boring stretch in the upper Midwest. That could make sense if cold hp suppresses systems to the south. Of course I don’t know much about the LRC and I’m kind of skeptical about it too.

[Grizzcoat]

12Z Nam looking more progressive -- still a good snow event for IA.

[Clinton]

So using the LRC as a guide, is this weekends storm cycling from the November 25th or early December storm? And if the LRC is reliable then the storms in the next several weeks should be moving across the southern states like it did for most of December and be a dryer boring stretch in the upper Midwest. That could make sense if cold hp suppresses systems to the south. Of course I don’t know much about the LRC and I’m kind of skeptical about it

This would be the early Dec version.  And the waves next week should be kinda weak and fast moving.

[Tom]

12Z Nam looking more progressive

Still very juiced across IA into N IL...

[Clinton]

Positively tilted this run.

[gabel23]

So using the LRC as a guide, is this weekends storm cycling from the November 25th or early December storm? And if the LRC is reliable then the storms in the next several weeks should be moving across the southern states like it did for most of December and be a dryer boring stretch in the upper Midwest. That could make sense if cold hp suppresses systems to the south. Of course I don’t know much about the LRC and I’m kind of skeptical about it too.

This would match up with the Dec 1st storm that created a blzzard across the mid section. Northern parts of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota were in a blizzard warning; my area was in a winter storm warning. I ended up with 5" of snow from that system. As far as using the LRC, you can only use it to get an idea when storm systems will be around; the cycle and pattern repeats but its the same but different. The next time around each cycle brings different seasonal differences compared to the previous cycle in terms of the storm systems. 

[Grizzcoat]

perhaps better for N.IL (and with upper air). I'd like it if I was in was CHI town

[East Dubzz]

Let’s just go ahead and lock that run of the NAM in and call it a day. No need to look at any other models.

[Stormhunter87]

3k also progressive and cuts the totals for here.

[Tom]

Interesting development per the 12z NAM as it tracks across the S MW. Rather than shearing out it looks like it’s intensifying thru Hr48.

[james1976]

Let’s just go ahead and lock that run of the NAM in and call it a day. No need to look at any other models.

Or the 6z haha

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

Let’s see if the others show better phasing like the NAM is starting to show. Gets down to a 997mb storm in W KY at Hr54.

[East Dubzz]

Or the 6z haha

Haha, this one puts me in a little more comfortable spot, so I’ll stick with it

[james1976]

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That 11" jackzone is barely north of me. I'll take it.

[james1976]

Haha, this one puts me in a little more comfortable spot, so I’ll stick with it

No doubt. That northern edge was getting a lil too close yesterday.

[Grizzcoat]

this one still has some jokers up it's sleeve I feel-- don't they all?  gotta crash. Keep the maps coming and good luck to all the snow weenies!!!