Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[East Dubzz]

I am holding a spot in my yard for you just in case. They would probably shut the bridge down though...

Does the bridge actually shut down in that case? I know it’s shut down because of ice and accidents, but I don’t really even know what happens on there during a big snowstorm. Who plows it? Does it even get plowed? I’m actually super curious about this now lol

[NH4NU]

Warnings now in place right along and east of Omaha/Missouri River. Will be interesting to see if they add Douglas and Sarpy on our side.

[dubuque473]

Does the bridge actually shut down in that case? I know it’s shut down because of ice and accidents, but I don’t really even know what happens on there during a big snowstorm. Who plows it? Does it even get plowed? I’m actually super curious about this now lol

Actually not sure. I know they have shut the lights off for fireflies at times. It got so slick there was a lot of accidents. I guess I should know, I work for the city of DBQ.

[Bellona]

It's about time I got into the thick of things. This is my first warning of the season. I'll more than double what I've gotten so far this year if it really happens.

[james1976]

Spread the wealth! Excited about this one.

[dubuque473]

NWS has me up to 8” now.

[East Dubzz]

Actually not sure. I know they have shut the lights off for fireflies at times. It got so slick there was a lot of accidents. I guess I should know, I work for the city of DBQ.

Ahaha come on now! I think it could be difficult to plow, because it’s not like that bridge is super spacious.

[dubuque473]

Ask around! Hard to plow fish flies..

[snowstorm83]

Yikes on the 18z GFS for Nebraskans unless you're in Falls City

[Grizzcoat]

Rgem cutoff is concerning

[Stormhunter87]

Yeah oax sticking with their forecast. 2-5 and keeping the wwa. Pretty much a copy-paste from their last two updates.

[dubuque473]

Now an 8-10 graph up on the DVV FB page for me.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs a heart breaker for eastern Nebraska. Tricky thing will be pinning down that heavy band

[hlcater]

FWIW(and I honestly think a decent bit) all three of the WRF models (ARW, NSSL and NMMB) are pretty juiced up with the precip in Iowa through the end of their runs. All of which eclipse 6" on a 10:1 map over a fairly large area. The fact that they all generally agree with each other(and the NAM) is worth more to me than any of the individual runs.

[hlcater]

FV3 looks more or less like 12z.

[tbone8]

[Jaycee]

snow.PNG

 

Wow! Jack zone here for me is it still snowing at that point too?!

[Stormhunter87]

FWIW(and I honestly think a decent bit) all three of the WRF models (ARW, NSSL and NMMB) are pretty juiced up with the precip in Iowa through the end of their runs. All of which eclipse 6" on a 10:1 map over a fairly large area. The fact that they all generally agree with each other(and the NAM) is worth more to me than any of the individual runs.

I was actually thinking the same thing. Hrrr, oax, and local guys are going towards the GFS. I don't buy that play currently.

[Madtown]

Funny thing is I'm still in the camp of it's too good to be true. I'd take 6" in a heart beat. Mkx saying 2-5". Cant wait to see flakes, but low is the way to go in my mind.

[easterniowa1]

Gfs a heart breaker for eastern Nebraska. Tricky thing will be pinning down that heavy band

 

 

Your Facebook post on January 14th was only like 8-12 inches off in southwest Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

i seriously think that a decent chunk of the warnings in NW IA (Atlantic/ Carroll and Dennison general area) is going to bust. In fact I'am mildly concerned further E here near DSM. Further NE I think is a slam dunk.

[indianajohn]

snow.PNG

Yes Please!!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Does anyone have the 18z canadian and ecmwf?

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

^ drastic difference from it's 12Z run and alludes to what I mentioned above. The trend is not good.-- hope I'am dead wrong.

[Niko]

Not sure why the GRR/DTX is being so silence on issuing a WSW. Somebody wake them up pls.

[GDR]

[Madtown]

u got that further east gdr? thanks!

[GDR]

[bud2380]

HRRR

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019011718/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[GDR]

[erburns18]

HRRR

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019011718/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Yuck I am riding a razor thin line

[East Dubzz]

How’s the HRRR line up with other models?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yuck I am riding a razor thin line

Looks like a razor thin line of death over I80 in eastern NEB. Jeez wow

[Stormhunter87]

HRRR

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019011718/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Following the CMC and GFS almost to a t.

[Stormhunter87]

How’s the HRRR line up with other models?

Following the CMC/ gfs

[mlgamer]

Here we are 24 hours before the event and the models still put down anywhere from nearly nothing to nearly a foot of snow at my location. The model solutions have so wildly changed from model to model, run to run for my area that I'm still not sure what to expect, but I think one key will be how quickly rain changes to snow here. Still has been a fun and interesting storm to track.

[james1976]

I love where im at. I hope nothing changes with the 0z runs.

[tbone8]

Upper East Coast really gets hammered...

 

[Grizzcoat]

HRRR is NOT following the most recent CMC (18Z)-- see post #950