Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Madtown]

how bout over this way grizz

[East Dubzz]

What’s it look like for DBQ?

[Grizzcoat]

Driving, but surprisingly good.most places

[Grizzcoat]

More later,

[Stormhunter87]

Not saying it is possible or the same situation, but back in 2003 they had a storm where they really backed off and models where saying 1-3. Ended up with a foot.

[Grizzcoat]

map coming

[Grizzcoat]

[Madtown]

wow...looks good over this way!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not saying it is possible or the same situation, but back in 2003 they had a storm where they really backed off and models where saying 1-3. Ended up with a foot.

 That would be a miracle.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lincoln and Omaha will be lucky to top an inch. Pulling for you Grizzcoat! 

[ToastedRavs]

It's pretty amazing that places like Oskaloosa and Ottumwa Iowa may be the top snow getters in the Hawkeye state if the trends continue all winter long. They've been in the jackpot for storm after storm...that general area at least. Wonder if they will indeed lead at the end of the season come April!

[Grizzcoat]

Riding the edge like usual- late NOV storm - missed to the S. A week ago- HIT. This one?  Probably a hit but foul. 

[Grizzcoat]

It's pretty amazing that places like Oskaloosa and Ottumwa Iowa may be the top snow getters in the Hawkeye state if the trends continue all winter long. They've been in the jackpot for storm after storm...that general area at least. Wonder if they will indeed lead at the end of the season come April!

 

Yeah- I think Osceloa had their seasonal avg (or pretty close) by th end of NOV. Meanwhile- 40 miles to the N is different story.

[GDR]

The king looks great!!

[ToastedRavs]

6z nam has phasing a bit better than 0z models....and a hefty band of snow from northeast Kansas to Osceola Iowa...edging so close to my county...tantalizing close

[Grizzcoat]

almost seems like riding that edge of the cutoff and dry air is making a feedback to a heavier band just to the  E. 3KM NAM and she is getting into her KILL zone as gosaints like to say. Love the trend back W!!

 

It 

[ToastedRavs]

almost seems like riding that edge of the cutoff and dry air is making a feedback to a heavier band just to the E. 3KM NAM and she is getting into her KILL zone as gosaints like to say. Love the trend back W!!

 

snku_acc.us_mw.pngIt

It may be the late hour or the Thirsty Thursday coming to an end....but it looks like a Flying V formation. Quack on NAM

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I've seen enough to issue my own forecast:

 

[ToastedRavs]

Craig: For the love of all, please tell me you have a disclaimer saying this is your own personal forecast and disclosure of your credentials, yes? Which good God I hope you have a degree or military forecast experience. I haven't been to your page, so I don't know but that's the obvious thing to have.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Craig: For the love of all, please tell me you have a disclaimer saying this is your own personal forecast and disclosure of your credentials, yes? Which good God I hope you have a degree or military forecast experience. I haven't been to your page, so I don't know but that's the obvious thing to have.

I made the map, its my forecast, who else's map would it be? lol. 

[ToastedRavs]

I made the map, its my forecast, who else's map would it be? lol.

We all know that. But your page on Fb apparently gets shared and caused issues....and IS A SAFETY RISK, if you are not qualified. It's called being responsible and not just trying to get likes or page hits. I went to your page...saw no mention of your qualifications. Just add something to it is my suggestion. You do a disservice to degreed and experienced Mets and pages that are out there. Common sense, at least to me.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Thank you for your opinion man! Appreciate it If any of the rest of you want to share your opinion as well just private message me!

[Grizzcoat]

We all know that. But your page on Fb apparently gets shared and caused issues....and IS A SAFETY RISK, if you are not qualified. It's called being responsible and not just trying to get likes or page hits. I went to your page...saw no mention of your qualifications. Just add something to it is my suggestion. You do a disservice to degreed and experienced Mets and pages that are out there. Common sense, at least to me.

+100  -1100 comments on his 12-18" posting from the Euro back on the 14th.  It's a free Country last I checked and Craig is free to do what he does. But what he is doing with snowfall maps from 96+ hours out being posted as if it's locked in (as that is what the common Joe will think) is to what ToastedRavs points. Safety Risk or all around bummer for those that don't like snow but are told by a somewhat looking official weather site (of which they have no clue) that 12-18" is/may (the common public doesn't understand this) be coming. Post any map (that early)  with amounts and people will think it's Gospel. Craig you seem like a good guy and are taking this pretty good. You have to understand where some of us are coming from though. 

 

[ToastedRavs]

I've seen enough to issue my own forecast:

 

 

 

FYI....THIS IS SOME PERSONAL FORECAST FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NON QUALIFIED WEATHER FAN. TAKE WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AND IF YOU ARE READING THIS AS A FIRST TIME VISITOR, PLEASE VISIT MORE RELIABLE SOURCES SUCH AS YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

 

THANKS

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS going with 3KM NAM and trends W

[Madtown]

mkx sticking with 3 to 5 h er re...pretty sure everything but 3knam shows more...we'll see.

[Grizzcoat]

Call me nuts; (and my wife does all the time) but I think just S of  KDSM-- maybe SE ( ok in the vicinity) does over 8"+ and may take the golden shovel award in IA. 

[DSM WeatherNut]

Call me nuts; (and my wife does all the time) but I think just S of  KDSM-- maybe SE ( ok in the vicinity) does over 8"+ and may take the golden shovel award in IA. 

 

 

That's what the latest DMX AFD points to. Also sounds like most of the snow will be out of the area by 3AM.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

401 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

 

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/

Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

 

Confidence: High on snow timing and occurrence, medium to high on

amounts.

 

Models showing some divergence in the strength of this system as it

impacts the state today into tonight, with the northern trough

taking some time to fully phase with the stronger southern trough.

This creates a bit of a split in the heavier snow amounts across the

forecast area with two main areas of concern for heavier amounts

great than 6". The first heavier area likely across the northern

third of the forecast area with more intense snowfall rates this

morning as an area of snow spreads across the state this morning

into the afternoon hours associated with an upper level shortwave

currently over the western high plains into WY/SD/CO area. This wave

will continue to traverse eastward across SD/NE today and become

phased with the southern trough toward early this evening. Models

indicating an area of frontogenesis stretching across the north

central to northwest portions of Iowa this morning, with some

elevated slantwise instability present above the lift layer.

Therefore expecting a band of enhanced snowfall rates stretching

from areas of northwest Iowa into north central Iowa from 15Z to 18Z

and beginning to dissipate toward 21z. Therefore still expecting

snowfall amounts into the 6 to 8 inch range across the northern few

tiers of counties through late afternoon, with some additional very

light accumulations still possible through the evening hours and

snow tapering off late tonight.

 

Further south and west, have the area situated between the northern

heavier band and the surge of moisture northward associated with the

southern system into the south central/southeastern forecast area

this afternoon/evening. Therefore with some dry air to overcome and

lighter snowfall rates expected between the two stronger areas of

forcing, have trended snow amounts down especially across the

west/central portions of the forecast area with 3-4 inches in the

far west and around 4-6 inches in/around the DSM metro/Ames areas.

However majority of that accumulating snowfall in the DSM metro will

occur right around the afternoon commute timeframe with some

possibly higher snowfall rates during that time. Therefore could

still see travel disruptions with the short-lived heavier bursts of

snow across central IA by mid/late afternoon into early evening.

 

Across southern/southeastern/eastern portions of the forecast area

again see a possibility of heavier snowfall into the 6 to 8+ range

of snow with a strong surge of moisture northward into the state

this afternoon ahead of the digging upper trough moving across the

southern Plains today and into AR/Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday.

Trowal feature to approach the southern forecast area and be firmly

across northern MO. Again have another area of frontogenesis across

the south/southeastern counties this afternoon, with some

instability present aloft as well. Also have a very good cross-hair

signature indicating strong lift within the dendritic zone around

21z-00z which should allow for more intense snowfall rates in that

area again with the surging moisture. Again this is moving in around

the evening commute timeframe, so travel impacts are very

concerning.

[Tom]

Looks like LOT going with 5-9" across Lake/DuPage/Cook and 5-8" across the rest of the Chicago region.  Additional  2-4" or 3-5" from LES Sat pm - Sun is looking likely, possibly more if the lake band stays in one place longer than anticipated.

 

Nice write up from LOT:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CST

Through Saturday...

Main concerns/challenges this forecast period continue to be
focused on the impending winter storm that will impact the region
later today into Saturday.

Main changes this morning were to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to
a Winter Storm Warning for the entire CWA to detail:

* Accumulating snow starting this afternoon for areas along and
north of I-88, spreading south to I-80 corridor Fri evening and
south of the Kankakee River late Fri evening or after midnight.
* Prolonged period of light to moderate snow with periodic bursts of
heavy snow still appearing likely, with some lake enhancement
appearing possible for mainly Lake IL and Cook counties.
* Increasing winds tonight into Saturday which will result in
blowing and drifting snow, especially in open and outlying areas.
* Lake effect snow showers likely into NE IL Saturday afternoon and
night, and Sat night into Sunday for NW IN. Most significant lake
effect snow accums expected late sat evening through Sunday
morning.

[dubuque473]

DVN going with 7” for me. 4-6 would be great for this winter. Around 1pm-2pm start so I can at least see some of it coming down.

 

They mentioned a possible couple inches Sunday and then more on Tuesday.

[Tom]

06z NAM...nice to S Wisco peeps catching in on some of the fun...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011806/075/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Boy, the 3km NAM is really showing a clear signal that there will be multiple plumes coming in off the lake...IMO, I could see some spots near the lake hit 15"+...if seen this movie before and the reason why is bc I think the models are underplaying the potential.  Last storm that hit the northern burbs with a lake enhanced band that dumped more snow than was anticipated while the models showed a marginal set up.  I remember 850's were barely -5C.  We have not seen that much cold since then that would have lowered lake temps.  This go around, 850's are much colder and my gut is telling me to look out for Lehs to be better during the synoptic event and when the LES event kicks in Sat pm - Sun this should be fun watching it unfold. 

 

Just by gauging what the 3km NAM is showing, I could see 2"+/hr snowfall rates if indeed a lake plume does develop which is looking like it will be due to strengthening convergence into NE IL.  Prob one of the more ideal set ups we have seen in a long while.  Heck, I think MKE is in the game to as ENE winds are ideal for them as well.

 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011806/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

06z FV3...

 

[Tom]

I've been going back and forth on the LRC cycle length with this system and I know Gary says its centered around 47 days (give or take a few days) and suggests this storm mirrors the big Blizzard that hit parts of C NE into the Dakotas back in late Nov/early Dec.  I will argue that if you look at the 500mb pattern, it does not portray this pattern, and moreso of the Nov 24th/25th Blizzard.  That system was faster and not slower like that late Nov/early Dec storm system.  So, IMHO, I've been using a 50-55 day cycle and systems have been lining up much better.  Could this just be a cycle within the LRC cycle that I've picked up on???  I dunno, but its been working for me and I'm sticking with it bc the pattern setting up next week and beyond is looking much better using a 50-55 day cycle.

 

Nonetheless, this is turning out to be a fun system to track with up and downs and I'm exciting about what is evolving for the Chicago area locations nearby.  Looks like recent guidance is suggesting a later onset after the rush hour which is good for me bc I'll be in the Wicker Park area till around 7:00 (ish) before I hit the road back home.  After analyzing recent data, I'm going with 10-15"+ for ORD and the higher totals may be the way to go, esp if I see the Lehs kicking in early and often.  The latest RPM model is dialing in on this signal for Lake/Cook county, esp from I-90 on north with a ENE flow off LM.  For some reason, my gut is saying the some places in Lake county may end up being the jack zone with 15"-20" totals and I know there aren't any models showing those lolipop totals but I'm going with past experience and basing it off how I read the higher rez model guidance which is suggesting the lake plume really deliver the goods for those locals and quite possibly into N Cook/Cook county.

[VMB443]

I’m liking where we are sitting here in Milwaukee - we may not score huge totals but given what we have had this winter (or not had) even 4-6 sounds is going to feel like a major storm, also watching the possibility of lake effect snow, I may be a bit too far west to get significant totals from that, but even an inch or two off it would be nice.

[Tom]

After I made the post above, I saw the updated LOT snowfall maps and I feel pretty good about what I said.  Based off this snow map, I'm pretty confident that ORD hits 10-15", with some places in Lake/Cook exceeding 15"+.

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[Tom]

I’m liking where we are sitting here in Milwaukee - we may not score huge totals but given what we have had this winter (or not had) even 4-6 sounds is going to feel like a major storm, also watching the possibility of lake effect snow, I may be a bit too far west to get significant totals from that, but even an inch or two off it would be nice.

 

Yup, this storm system is turning out to be a decent hit for you guys up there and the Lehs set up is something you guys should do somewhat good bc an ENE flow off LM usually does well for MKE.  Good luck!

[Grizzcoat]

Latest Rap and Hrrr may well prove S Central Ia golden shovel, ( for Ia,). The ups and downs of this make me feel like watching end to end action in the Stanley Cup finals.

[james1976]

Things have trended back up a bit for my area compared to the dud 0z runs. Still looking like 6-8 for me. Cant wait to get the party started!

[Grizzcoat]

The cutoff (dry air) may actually be helping those just to the E in S.ia by squeezing out "what" should be just W. Atmosphere Physics. Nuts