Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Bellona]

I cursed us James....

[Grizzcoat]

Full sampling killing everything?

The NAM had full sampling. I think it's the phase issue. Someone ( I think Jaster) mentioned he heard this certain event is poorly handled by guidance in seeing phase or no phase. Obviously that is shown to all of us now.

[Grizzcoat]

CMC not as bad as GFS but still cuts totals for many. OMA might get 1.2 - 1.8"

[Iowawx]

It sucks to track a storm for a week and then watch it crap the bed at the last minute.

What’s your guess for snowfall in CR?

[GDR]

[East Dubzz]

CMC actually slightly better IMBY. Not quite as much for everyone else.

 

So GFS definitely saw a decrease in my area, but the NAM & CMC may have actually been slightly stronger. Not sure how to feel.

[Hawkeye]

What’s your guess for snowfall in CR?

 

It's hard to know.  We're certainly better off than central/western Iowa.  0.30" would still be 4-5".

[Grizzcoat]

i don't get on AMWX for winter events- just tropical. But would be interesting to hear what anyone on their is saying about this. NAM / GFS couldn't be more different for many.

[Hawkeye]

00z Canadian

 

[Grizzcoat]

This may come down to last minute deal. Basically a radar trend now cast. I was mildly concerned this may happen for many-- but it's quite interesting even if many get the shaft that this can happen in this day and age. Pretty cool actually,

[Bellona]

i don't get on AMWX for winter events- just tropical. But would be interesting to hear what anyone on their is saying about this. NAM / GFS couldn't be more different for many.

The NAM has been stellar this year as opposed to the GFS which has not be as well a performer. I'm going to ride the NAM because a) better track record lately and I really want to see 13 inches in my yard lol

[St Paul Storm]

i don't get on AMWX for winter events- just tropical. But would be interesting to hear what anyone on their is saying about this. NAM / GFS couldn't be more different for many.

I don’t post there anymore but I just checked. Pretty dismal over there too. Didn’t see any specifics from any mets, but the mood is somber it seems.

[Grizzcoat]

Tonight should be another reminder that it's wise not to post snow maps on social media 5 days   out that are insane in total -- check that, 1 day in advance and even modest ones.

[hlcater]

Consensus to dry up, so I'm gonna ignore the NAM and follow consensus. My call is 4-6 for CR. I'm not even there but that's my measuring location so it's what we're gonna go with.

[Hawkeye]

Local met Terry Swails is on now and he's lowering his totals area-wide based on the latest models.  He's down to 3-6 with isolated 7.

[East Dubzz]

I was always skeptical of the 8-10 amounts. I do think 4-7 is still possible in my area, though.

[GDR]

I’m hearing that areas of the warning will be dropping

[Grizzcoat]

Maybe it's a revolt by the NWS for not getting paid due to the shutdown?

[ToastedRavs]

[Money]

Tonight should be another reminder that it's wise not to post snow maps on social media 5 days out that are insane in total -- check that, 1 day in advance and even modest ones.

So I cant post amounts from one model 5 days out? Wtf

[Stormhunter87]

You know what screw it I'll go with the 06z nam run, 14 inches! Lol what a fun storm...

[ToastedRavs]

So I cant post amounts from one model 5 days out? Wtf

Unless you're a teenager or younger, or extremely elderly....I fault those that share snow predictions on their feed so far out. In this day and age haven't even non weather folks learned that a lot can change? All Craig's page needs is a disclaimer and I'd be fine with what he did. He may have one...never been on the page. But those who share the post five days ago are just as much to blame, in my opinion.

[Grizzcoat]

So I cant post amounts from one model 5 days out? Wtf

and than say "not my fault people want to believe it."---

[Stormhunter87]

Unless you're a teenager or younger, or extremely elderly....I fault those that share snow predictions on their feed so far out. In this day and age haven't even non weather folks learned that a lot can change? All Craig's page needs is a disclaimer and I'd be fine with what he did. He may have one...never been on the page. But those who share the post five days ago are just as much to blame, in my opinion.

Most people don't even know that 6hrs is only still 90% accurate, and the numbers get worse after that. If I remember correctly the goal of NOAA for the next few years is to get to 12 hours at 90% accuracy.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie cut back totals but not as bad as GFS- Areas along I-35  and E in IA still close to warning snow.-- but probably 4-6"

[DSM WeatherNut]

This is beginning to look more realistic like the Euro
 

12z FV3 is terrible.... worst run so far, huge dry moat across Iowa,

 

[Madtown]

still looks ok over here 4-6

[East Dubzz]

Anyone got a map for the UKMET?

[Hawkeye]

00z UK... every single model is trending to the same scenario.  More positive tilt -> weaker and faster -> north and south snow bands coming together later.

 

[Grizzcoat]

It's probably trivial in nature- but HRRR and RAP NOT initializing very good with light/moderate snow in W.SD.

[Grizzcoat]

[East Dubzz]

Okay, I’d be content with what a majority of the models are showing tonight. Would probably result in 4-6”. Just can’t have things change too much more.

[Jaycee]

D**n and just like that, looks like my 12-18” forecast from the NWS isnt looking possible anymore.

[East Dubzz]

It’s been a terrible year for snow, so as long as I can get like 3” or more, I’d be happy. Anything less would be disappointing, but I’ll takw an advisory level event given how this winter’s been. As they say, beggers can’t be choosers.

[tbone8]

http://tribwgntv.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/featuregraphic011819final.jpg?quality=85&strip=all

[Stormhunter87]

OAX isn't changing their forecast

[Grizzcoat]

OAX isn't changing their forecast

Not yet. I would be shocked if major changes are not made at OAX and DMX with  the morning packages. But for now they are holding firm--

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

 

MVFR stratus close to clearing at DSM and have VFR conditions by

around 08z. Looks to stick around OTM for the duration of the

night. No significant changes to the previous forecast as still

have MVFR to IFR conditions Friday afternoon into Friday evening

from the strong winds and snow.

[East Dubzz]

Makes sense not to change it yet. Would look really bad if they changed things and then it got altered again later.

[snowstorm83]

The possibility of freezing drizzle and sleet may be enough excuse to keep an advisory even with minimal snow. At least its looked iffy for a while in Eastern NE. IA people are having the rugged pulled right from under them if things don't correct back soon. 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro cut back from 12Z but not nearly as bad as  I thought at least at my locale- in fact only lost .10 (or less) of QPF