Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[East Dubzz]

Ok, it is a nice bonus then. I am up by hwy 52 and the NW Arterial.

It is. Really wish it was going to last longer, but I doubt it unless we get a miracle.

[East Dubzz]

HRRR shows the southern stream starting to really strengthen at about 3 pm this afternoon.

[james1976]

Looks like snow is trying to develop south of that heavy band in IA and also developing in Kansas. Temp is only 19. Awesome ratios if this thing would get going.

[Grizzcoat]

Rap continues to show heaviest in IA just S of DSM.

[bud2380]

Euro

 

[hlcater]

RAP and HRRR getting better on QPF over E IA run to run.

[Hawkeye]

Boy, the snow geeks living west of Ottumwa need to go out and buy some lottery tickets.  What is this, the fifth storm they've been bulls-eyed by?

[gosaints]

Where the initial fronto band hits should now be pretty straightforward.  Its fully developed.  

[james1976]

Grizz do you have the Euro kuchera?

[Grizzcoat]

Driving. Won't be able to have access to that for a few hours. Radar trends now.

[East Dubzz]

Actually snowing decent here. Don’t know how much longer it’ll last, but it’s been a bit of a surprise it even lasted this long.

[dubuque473]

Swails just updated his website, going with the Euro which says 9” here...

[gosaints]

Prolly time to watch radar trends/meso's and ignore the globals.  Not the EURO's kill zone

[hlcater]

Boy, the snow geeks living west of Ottumwa need to go out and buy some lottery tickets. What is this, the fifth storm they've been bulls-eyed by?

Ive got family there(chariton), they’re at 28” on the season or thereabouts. They measure their snow but I suspect they aren’t very good at it. They aren’t trained spotters.

[bud2380]

 

Courtesy of the aforementioned Terry Swails

[East Dubzz]

I would not be upset if that occurred.

[bud2380]

The NAM and the Euro are in very good agreement. 

[GDR]

Yes please!!

[East Dubzz]

I don’t have the radar open, but the snow has lightened up here and the skies are also not as dark, so I’m assuming we’re in our lull now until it starts back up again tonight.

[jaster220]

12z NAM with an 8-9" lolly within 25 miles of mby. Watching trends and hoping I get lucky with a "bump" as we go. Was out at lunch time and noticed a few saturation flurries hit my windshield as I was waiting in line for my greasy grub. It'll take a massive bad twist to keep this from being good for Marshall with the lack of "winter" since Met winter started. Hope everybody gets positive surprises

[CentralNebWeather]

Still freezing drizzle here.  Yuck.  Almost all activities are postponed or cancelled.  Our school, one of the only ones open in our area, is letting everyone go at 1:30 and has cancelled all after school practices, etc.  Would much rather have a snowstorm, blizzard, than this stuff.

[Stormhunter87]

Mixed precipitation here. Very slick now. So weird being 25 and having freezing drizzle.

[jaster220]

Capture.PNG

 

Courtesy of the aforementioned Terry Swails

 

Strange storm. You'd think those two streaks would combine and be a 2X jack-zone 

[indianajohn]

Well since models are finally in agreement I’m thinking under 5” for NWI from the storm.....Now we wait and see what Lake Michigan has in store for us.

[gosaints]

One of my favorite nowtime event track in sometime.  Can see on the 1km radar products the trajectory of the fronto band.  Someplace where that pivots will get some nice totals.

[james1976]

Snow is developing thank God. Should start soon here hopefully. Ceiling is definitely lowering.

[Sciascia]

Point & click forecast for today & tomorrow increased “expected snow” from earlier this morning. Now saying 8-16 inches. I’m not sure I can buy into that.

 

I’ll shoot/hope for 6 inches, and anything over would be gravy.

[james1976]

Yeah globals dont matter now. I was just curious what it was showing for ratios.

[gosaints]

Yeah globals dont matter now. I was just curious what it was showing for ratios.

So far I would say kuchera will be overdone with the stuff that has fallen to far.  Small flakes.  We will see what happens when the best forcing arrives in a couple hours...

[East Dubzz]

So far I would say kuchera will be overdone with the stuff that has fallen to far. Small flakes. We will see what happens when the best forcing arrives in a couple hours...

On the other hand, the flakes here were pretty good sized while it was coming down.

[gosaints]

On the other hand, the flakes here were pretty good sized while it was coming down.

I am not saying the ratios are awful, but not 20:1 right now.  I am guessing the best banding has plenty of fatties

[james1976]

15:1 later on I'd say

[Tony]

Looking at radar it looks like the northern stream is starting to orient itself to more se movement at least in Illinois or maybe it's just starting to fill in but either way its a good sign.

[East Dubzz]

That time period between like 3-5 pm this afternoon and maybe 6 is going to be really important. If it doesn’t fill in as expected, not going to be great..

 

Though the current radar does look fairly encouraging.

[gosaints]

Latest HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019011818/017/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

12z NAM with an 8-9" lolly within 25 miles of mby. Watching trends and hoping I get lucky with a "bump" as we go. Was out at lunch time and noticed a few saturation flurries hit my windshield as I was waiting in line for my greasy grub. It'll take a massive bad twist to keep this from being good for Marshall with the lack of "winter" since Met winter started. Hope everybody gets positive surprises

I just did. (I'll take this as a surprise since NWS took foreva to show a headline) I am under a WWA.. ...Hopefully, we can overachieve this one. I am expected to get 3-6" Snow ratios should be high, so maybe I can exceed that 6" mark, who knows.

[BrianJK]

Looking at radar it looks like the northern stream is starting to orient itself to more se movement at least in Illinois or maybe it's just starting to fill in but either way its a good sign.

S WI going to make out nicely

[indianajohn]

All the hype last few days to expecting 3”..... Mother Nature can so cruel!! LOL

 

Latest HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019011818/017/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

All one has to do is compare yesterdays 18z run of the NAM to what its going to spit out now to see how goofy this hobby is..

[Snowshoe]

Looking forward to reading the afternoon discos from LaCrosse and Milwaukee.

 

S WI going to make out nicely