Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Tom]

12z NAM 3km...with a general .60 - .75 qpf in NE IL and parts of SE WI, fluff that up and one can easily approach and exceed 12".  LES is typically 20:-30:1 ratio snows so you can do that math.  I'd say about a quarter of that total precip falls as LES.  Not only that, models have no clue how intense the Lake Plume may end up being and just provide a general idea.  Both NAM's keep the lake plume hugging the western shores for 12+ hours which is an encouraging sign for a potential long duration LES set up.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011812/060/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

The second band is where you could make bank. I think the fronto band skirts to your north

I’m guessing so too, but it would be nice to get in on some of that action. Or if that dry wedge isn’t as pronounced as it’s showing and I get a little more prolonged snow.

[BrianJK]

Fgen band now out of N IL and into S WI on the NAM & HRRR. That would likely make a big difference in snow amounts if it verifies.

That’s the bust potential I referenced last night. A 25-50 mile shift of the FGEN makes a huge difference especially when that’s typically as wide as the entire band is.

[james1976]

Bud and Hawkeye have a shot at jackin with that south band

[Hawkeye]

I think DMX is going to have to drop the warning for much of the western part of their area.  Models have really crapped out for that area.

[james1976]

I think DMX is going to have to drop the warning for much of the western part of their area. Models have really crapped out for that area.

Ft Dodge and west look bad

[james1976]

Omadome taking up a lot of space in IA

[GDR]

5-10 here I’ll take it

[CentralNebWeather]

Horribly slick with freezing drizzle here.  Most schools late start or closed, except our school, on time as usual.  Boo.

[indianajohn]

Wow so close and models still really don’t have a clue... love it

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON

 

[james1976]

I'd feel good if I was in Rochester

[Hawkeye]

12z RGEM

 

This is the worst run so far for Cedar Rapids

 

[james1976]

Looking like another 2 incher for mby

[Niko]

This storm has potential for surprises and bust. Stay tuned as models are still clueless. Nowcasting begins tanite.

[Niko]

Wow so close and models still really don’t have a clue... love it

They don't. Clueless as they can ever be.

[DSM WeatherNut]

RAP at 13z

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2019011813/021/snku_acc.conus.png

 

I like this model personal, but unfortunately it doesn't work that way.

[Hawkeye]

14z HRRR

 

It needs to be frozen right there.

 

[ToastedRavs]

12z GFS coming in juicier than 0z, that's for sure! Has 8+ in my county just south of Des Moines. But that dry punch goes along Hwy 20.

[james1976]

So when is that southern wave supposed to develop?

[East Dubzz]

14z HRRR

 

It needs to be frozen right there.

 

Yup. HRR looks fine. Matches up pretty decent with the DVN forecast. Maybe more like 5-8”, but still solid.

[Money]

Need a 20 mile shift North

[East Dubzz]

So when is that southern wave supposed to develop?

Looking at the HRR, seems to be early afternoon when it really starts to take form. That dry wedge it’s showing around 3 or 4 this afternoon is gross.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

 

[james1976]

DMX could literally drop the warning for the entire CWA.

[Clinton]

12z GFS lookin better for me.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011812/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

DMX could literally drop the warning for the entire CWA.

Some of their south central Iowa counties are still looking at warming criteria, no?

[bud2380]

Every model has my county with roughly 6" or more.  I'm liking where I sit.  

[james1976]

Some of their south central Iowa counties are still looking at warming criteria, no?

Yeah prolly if Kuchera verifies

[East Dubzz]

Yeah prolly if Kuchera verifies

Or if the HRRR verifies. At 10:1 ratios, that’d still be borderline warning criteria at the worst.

[Hawkeye]

Every model has my county with roughly 6" or more.  I'm liking where I sit.  

 

You look to be a good spot for sure.

[easterniowa1]

Omadome taking up a lot of space in IA

 

Aren't some of those places looking at 12-18 inches of snow? Clickbait Craig said so.

[Tom]

Cloud tops near Sioux Falls have that convective look to it.  I bet its rippin' out that way and a good sign this systems Fgen is ramping up.

[gosaints]

Just starting to overcome the dry air

[james1976]

Cloud tops near Sioux Falls have that convective look to it. I bet its rippin' out that way and a good sign this systems Fgen is ramping up.

Yeah good banding out there. S MN looks good as it heads east.

[hlcater]

I’m in Iowa City for this one. I feel like I’m just about golden.

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian

 

[GDR]

I’m liking where I’m sitting

[james1976]

Models still spitting out 4 or 5" for me but I'm not buying it based on radar trends.

[Madtown]

every model seems to day 6 to 7 for me....Mkx still has 2 as the floor. If I cant hit 4" it will be a disappointment.