Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[gosaints]

I love where im at. I hope nothing changes with the 0z runs.

you should be golden

[Grizzcoat]

you should be golden

Agree! Enjoy it!

[Stormhunter87]

HRRR is NOT following the most recent CMC (18Z)-- see post #950

Haven't seen the 18z I was talking about the 12z. Correction just saw your post. Kinda close on the west side but was more talking 12z CMC.

[Grizzcoat]

I totally understand HRRR/RAP  struggle past 10 hours - but compare what the HRRR has for 12Z tomorrow from it's 18Z and 23Z runs. WAY N. St Paul Storm may outscore some in Warnings if it's sniffy something out.

[East Dubzz]

I could be wrong, but the HRRR seems pretty far north doesn’t it? Guess it’s long term HRRR, so hard to trust it much right now.

[East Dubzz]

I totally understand HRRR/RAP struggle past 10 hours - but compare what the HRRR has for 12Z tomorrow from it's 18Z and 23Z runs. WAY N. St Paul Storm may outscore some in Warnings if it's sniffy something out.

I doubt it. There have been many times that I was wondering if the HRRR was picking up something, only for it to fall in line as more runs occurred. Guess it only takes that one time, but I’m pretty skeptical on that right now.

[Bellona]

I love where im at. I hope nothing changes with the 0z runs.

I think we are going to be in the sweet spot!

[St Paul Storm]

I totally understand HRRR/RAP struggle past 10 hours - but compare what the HRRR has for 12Z tomorrow from it's 18Z and 23Z runs. WAY N. St Paul Storm may outscore some in Warnings if it's sniffy something out.

Grizz don’t lure me in. I’m doing a great job simply lurking in this thread. Haha.

 

In all seriousness, good luck to all you peeps.

[gosaints]

I doubt it. There have been many times that I was wondering if the HRRR was picking up something, only for it to fall in line as more runs occurred. Guess it only takes that one time, but I’m pretty skeptical on that right now.

where the front band gets going will be key. Next couple hours should show that...

[indianajohn]

Would be sweet if it verifies!!

[East Dubzz]

where the front band gets going will be key. Next couple hours should show that...

True. Will also be interesting to see if there’s any change on the NAM.

[bud2380]

My county just got upgraded to a winter storm warning

[East Dubzz]

My county just got upgraded to a winter storm warning

DVN obviously not buying the HRRR.. ha!

[Stormhunter87]

^ hrrr looks terrible all around.

[Grizzcoat]

Hope I'am wrong but I expect changes on 00Z Nam both 12KM and  3KM. I really think my post before about parts of the Western warning busting is going come to fruition; sadly.

[jaster220]

Jaster, no headlines yet?! Not sure what the NWS is worried about.

 

Not sure why the GRR/DTX is being so silence on issuing a WSW. Somebody wake them up pls.

 

GRR announced they will no longer be issuing winter headlines. Something about the gov shutdown. Idk?

 

Said they needed a new excuse not to issue Winter Storm Watches and that the gov shutdown seemed to be a timely excuse. They feel Winter Storm Watches are confusing to the public.

[Clinton]

I know the long rang HRRR is sketchy at best but I think it may be on to a trend that will start tonight.

[jaster220]

Tom's in for quite the schlammering this weekend tho..

 

[jaster220]

I know the long rang HRRR is sketchy at best but I think it may be on to a trend that will start tonight.

 

Meaning what exactly? Looks like most other maps besides maybe a bit further north?

[Stormhunter87]

So far the nam is disagreeing.

[East Dubzz]

I know the long rang HRRR is sketchy at best but I think it may be on to a trend that will start tonight.

Only to HR 18 on the NAM, but that prediction isn’t looking like it’ll be off to a great start.

[Grizzcoat]

Nam picking up on that dry wedge in WNW IA.

[Grizzcoat]

Not as robust on QPF  for Western Warnings

[Grizzcoat]

NAM likes N.MO

[Clinton]

Nam picking up on that dry wedge in WNW IA.

Feel like the dry air coming in on the backside is going to cut off the snow to fast to reach some of thw accumulations we are hoping for.

[Clinton]

NAM likes N.MO

So does the HRRR

[Clinton]

The NAM is so weak I stay to warm for snow.

[East Dubzz]

The NAM is so weak I stay to warm for snow.

Where do you reside?

[Money]

I know the long rang HRRR is sketchy at best but I think it may be on to a trend that will start tonight.

Yea not happening

[james1976]

NAM has moderate to heavy snow moving right over me tomorrow PM.

[Stormhunter87]

Did better on the nam than the hrrr, but not by much. They already calling school off here. That is surprising.

[Grizzcoat]

James1976 Special ---

[Clinton]

Where do you reside?

About 50 miles ESE of KC.

[East Dubzz]

Ohhh yeah, go ahead and lock that one in!

[james1976]

James1976 Special --- USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_036.gif

Haha pretty much!! That bullseye is barely south of me☺

I'm excited

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

3KM NAM REALLY emphasizing the dry wedge. MAJOR busts if it transpires.

[james1976]

snku_acc.us_mw.png

I'm just barely NW of that 13.2 bullseye. Awesome!

[Stormhunter87]

Well maybe the old rule will come to play but looking like a bust here. Was hoping though. Congrats to the Iowa people.

[Bellona]

That 13.2 is mby! That's usually a nail in the coffin. Hoping this one actually pans out. James and I could both score big!