November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy and 35F. Still, plenty of beautiful snowcover around.

[Niko]

70* High today.......Zzzzzzzz.

 

That is all.

That must feel nice.

[Niko]

Got the Christmas lights on the house, I've been outdoors with the kiddos enjoying a beautiful November day.  Now time to relax and watch some football!

Bet it looks awesome.

[Niko]

I swear it looks like mid December out there w all that snowcover. Cant seem to get used to the fact that it is only mid November. Today I saw people shoveling snow from their driveways and thought to myself, wait a minute....is this November??? It is not even Thanksgiving week yet or better yet, has not even past Thanksgiving holiday. All ponds have frozen up. Crazy.

[Niko]

So, you take winter when you get it cuz that's all you can do, right? While it stopped by for an early visit I thought I'd get a few pictures with the beautiful day around here. Ofc I want more storms, but today's wx is difficult to turn down on a Saturday when I wasn't stuck in an office working. This is just outside a small city in Van Buren Cnty west of Kzoo. It was nice to need my shades 

 

20191116_120654_resized.jpg

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Awesome pics amigo!

[Niko]

NOAA:

Next well organized system arrives on Thursday as a warm front lifts
into the Great Lakes nudging 850 mb temps close to 10 C. Widespread
and longer duration rainfall is expected with the warm front and the
subsequent cold FROPA as low pressure deepens and races through
northern Lower Michigan Thursday evening driven aloft by a sharp
trough folding into the southern branch of a split jet. Changeover
to snow is possible late Thursday night as stronger CAA from
northwest promotes freezing temperatures return. Mainly dry
conditions through next weekend with cool temps.

[Madtown]

32 and snow here...turning white again

[jaster220]

While my upper deck/back porch gets baked by the afternoon sun, the lower deck this time of year benefits from shading by my garage. Still have a very dense 4" there. 

 

 

It was not only warm but also very calm here this afternoon so I put a sizable dent in putting out my holiday lights. Now I feel better that even if I don't get all of it out this year, I will have enough to make it merry and bright. 

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Clinton

 

Thank you for keeping tabs on the LR potentials. Man does the Euro look stout! 

 

Trends:

 

 

 

[Clinton]

@ Clinton

 

Thank you for keeping tabs on the LR potentials. Man does the Euro look stout! 

 

Trends:

 

20191116 18z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h270.png

 

20191117 12z Euro_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h240.png

No problem things look like they're about to get active.

[Niko]

No problem things look like they're about to get active.

Fun times ahead!

[Niko]

 

This is what I still have here in mby as of today....

 

Btw: check out the fallen leaves that are at the very lower left hand corner of this snow pic

[jaster220]

Hit 19F here this morning. That'd be a big milestone in many if not most Novembers. Nasso much this year. 

[jaster220]

12z Euro hinting at some decent accum's next weekend around here.

 

Jingle bells..jingle bells..jingle all the way (to Thanksgiving) 

 

[jaster220]

You know what they say about system 1 laying the tracks down for system 2. Whoa! if that area (grey shaded lighter amts) fills-in. That'd be about a perfect swath for a majority of our members. 

[Niko]

12z Euro hinting at some decent accum's next weekend around here.

 

Jingle bells..jingle bells..jingle all the way (to Thanksgiving) 

 

20191117 12z Euro_SLR_snowfall_us_h162.png

Thanksgiving storm looks very interesting.

 

Also, models are not seeing that GB. Notice that the Veterans Day snowstorm was picked up by models 2 to 3 days b4. Prior to that, they were calling for partly cloudy skies, meanwhile, near a foot fell in mby.

[Niko]

Attm, 34F under cloudy skies. Some snowshowers are being reported to my west.

[jaster220]

Thanksgiving storm looks very interesting.

 

Going to be interesting to see if the same colder/eastward track trends that have been working in our favor so far continue? If so, look out! This month's going to finish with a bang and smash trash and destroy previous records. But, I get ahead of myself. 

[jaster220]

Thanksgiving storm looks very interesting.

 

Also, models are not seeing that GB. Notice that the Veterans Day snowstorm was picked up by models 2 to 3 days b4. Prior to that, they were calling for partly cloudy skies, meanwhile, near a foot fell in mby.

 

Yeah, I made mention in a post wrt that very thing. Nothing close to an all-time historic storm was shown at this range for Vet's Day. Heck, most models barely had anything. This one's at least being picked up on by models. Not to say the two situations are apples to apples, but still, the trend's been our friend since things literally "flipped" from last winter's pattern. 

[jaster220]

Attm, 34F under cloudy skies. Some snowshowers are being reported to my west.

 

Last I peeked, that was virga here, or fell as a mix, but wasn't/didn't actually snow despite radar looking like it. 

[Niko]

Last I peeked, that was virga here, or fell as a mix, but wasn't/didn't actually snow despite radar looking like it. 

Yep, I just checked and nothing falling.

[Niko]

Yeah, I made mention in a post wrt that very thing. Nothing close to an all-time historic storm was shown at this range for Vet's Day. Heck, most models barely had anything. This one's at least being picked up on by models. Not to say the two situations are apples to apples, but still, the trend's been our friend since things literally "flipped" from last winter's pattern. 

Exactly

 

The 20th-21st storm looks to go from rain to snow.

[jaster220]

Exactly

 

The 20th-21st storm looks to go from rain to snow.

 

Where did you see that? 

[Niko]

NOAA:

Next well organized system arrives on Thursday as a warm front lifts

into the Great Lakes nudging 850 mb temps close to 10 C. Widespread

and longer duration rainfall is expected with the warm front and the

subsequent cold FROPA as low pressure deepens and races through

northern Lower Michigan Thursday evening driven aloft by a sharp

trough folding into the southern branch of a split jet. Changeover

to snow is possible late Thursday night as stronger CAA from

northwest promotes freezing temperatures return. Mainly dry

conditions through next weekend with cool temps.

 

Where did you see that? 

[jaster220]

Exactly

 

The 20th-21st storm looks to go from rain to snow.

 

ICON does that to an extent, but NAVGEM keeps the SLP way further south and basically tells SMI "why wait for Thanksgiving, when you can have a storm this Friday?" 

 

(map does not show rain vs snow by color)

 

[Niko]

ICON does that to an extent, but NAVGEM keeps the SLP way further south and basically tells SMI "why wait for Thanksgiving, when you can have a storm this Friday?" 

 

(map does not show rain vs snow by color)

 

20191117 NAVgem_Surf_fh114.GIF

Watch this turns out to be another snowstorm for us

 

Bummer, I would've liked it w color separation instead

[jaster220]

Watch this turns out to be another snowstorm for us

 

Bummer, I would've liked it w color separation instead

 

Wouldn't that be wild. I think we'd be banned from the sub tho for possible theft. 

[jaster220]

Peeking at the GEM at h240 for the T-day storm, you can see it looks like it's trying to put something together with a large area of precip down south. I really like where it has the HP positioned too. Hopefully yet another global sniffing out the potential. 

 

[jaster220]

Sheesh!  ICON really gets this Thur/Fri's storm amped as it heads into Ontario (henceforth to be called blizzardland). I sure hope when we head into actual winter and they get tired of all those they can send 'em down our way. 

 

[Niko]

Wouldn't that be wild. I think we'd be banned from the sub tho for possible theft. 

:lol:......

[Niko]

Peeking at the GEM at h240 for the T-day storm, you can see it looks like it's trying to put something together with a large area of precip down south. I really like where it has the HP positioned too. Hopefully yet another global sniffing out the potential. 

 

20191117 12z GEM h240.png

Yes, that precip in the south looks like its eyeing our area and others up here. Definitely liking what I am seeing.

[jaster220]

NOAA:

Next well organized system arrives on Thursday as a warm front lifts

into the Great Lakes nudging 850 mb temps close to 10 C. Widespread

and longer duration rainfall is expected with the warm front and the

subsequent cold FROPA as low pressure deepens and races through

northern Lower Michigan Thursday evening driven aloft by a sharp

trough folding into the southern branch of a split jet. Changeover

to snow is possible late Thursday night as stronger CAA from

northwest promotes freezing temperatures return. Mainly dry

conditions through next weekend with cool temps.

 

My office on the Thur/Fri deal.

 

Next area of low pressure will lift through the Great Lakes Thursday

ahead of an upper trough swinging through Central Canada. Track of

the center of the low through northern Lower Michigan will boost

temperatures over Southern Michigan, with areas near/south of I-96 making

a run at 50 degrees (above normal!).

 

Can you tell what they're all about?? 

[Niko]

My office on the Thur/Fri deal.

 

 

Can you tell what they're all about?? 

 

 

Huge difference between these two offices....

[snowstorm83]

GFS is a rainer for the Thanksgiving week storm

[clintbeed1993]

Man, I really hope the EURO is onto something with the pattern going forward. GFS doesn't have much cold air at all. It's been very dry and boring here this last month, would be nice to get something by Thanksgiving.

[Clinton]

The Euro ensembles starting to like Nebraska and Iowa through the end of the month.

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  What a difference this week will be compared to last week around here.  The pick day of the week is Wednesday when highs will approach the low 50's and sunshine.  I just hope all the leaves in my gutters and the rest of my yard dry up a bit to do my final clean up on Wednesday.  Sorta want to get this out of the way before Thanksgiving week so I can focus on putting up my Christmas Lights and decor.

 

Meantime, the trends over the past several days in the modeling has been for a deeper trough in the central CONUS around Thanksgiving Day.  If accurate, this may suggest to me that indeed we will be in the midst of LRC cycle #2.  To me, the hard cutter that tracks up into the Upper MW on Wed/Thu lines up with the Oct 5th/6th system and then 5 days later the bigger storm comes out of the Rockies and develops in the Plains/Upper MW during Oct 10th-13th and stalls out.  We are seeing this almost play out to a "T" this week into Thanksgiving week.  I know Gary seems to believe this is a longer cycle but I'm seeing evidence that it is not.  Let's see what shakes out over the coming week.  If that Thanksgiving storm takes on a feature where it strengthens across the Plains/MW and then occludes somewhere around the GL's, then I'd be more convinced we are in LRC cycle #2.  The placement of the Blocking pattern setting up that week looks very similar to how it evolved in October.  The fact that the models are busting bad on the SER gives me even more evidence that the cycle is repeating bc none of the models saw this coming and I was getting a bit worried until a couple of days ago the trends started showing up.  Now, nearly all the models show a SER (-PNA).

 

For instance, notice the EPS last 3 runs when all the models had an EC trough that has all but disappeared which leads us into a favorable pattern for a Cutter during the Thanksgiving holiday.  The Day 10 map has a solid EC ridge along with that nice Greenland Block.

 

[Tom]

@ Clinton, thanks for sharing those maps...they certainly line up with the LR ideas....question, does the EPS show a significant cool down post Thanksgiving storm???

[Clinton]

Happy Monday!  What a difference this week will be compared to last week around here.  The pick day of the week is Wednesday when highs will approach the low 50's and sunshine.  I just hope all the leaves in my gutters and the rest of my yard dry up a bit to do my final clean up on Wednesday.  Sorta want to get this out of the way before Thanksgiving week so I can focus on putting up my Christmas Lights and decor.

 

Meantime, the trends over the past several days in the modeling has been for a deeper trough in the central CONUS around Thanksgiving Day.  If accurate, this may suggest to me that indeed we will be in the midst of LRC cycle #2.  To me, the hard cutter that tracks up into the Upper MW on Wed/Thu lines up with the Oct 5th/6th system and then 5 days later the bigger storm comes out of the Rockies and develops in the Plains/Upper MW during Oct 10th-13th and stalls out.  We are seeing this almost play out to a "T" this week into Thanksgiving week.  I know Gary seems to believe this is a longer cycle but I'm seeing evidence that it is not.  Let's see what shakes out over the coming week.  If that Thanksgiving storm takes on a feature where it strengthens across the Plains/MW and then occludes somewhere around the GL's, then I'd be more convinced we are in LRC cycle #2.  The placement of the Blocking pattern setting up that week looks very similar to how it evolved in October.  The fact that the models are busting bad on the SER gives me even more evidence that the cycle is repeating bc none of the models saw this coming and I was getting a bit worried until a couple of days ago the trends started showing up.  Now, nearly all the models show a SER (-PNA).

 

For instance, notice the EPS last 3 runs when all the models had an EC trough that has all but disappeared which leads us into a favorable pattern for a Cutter during the Thanksgiving holiday.  The Day 10 map has a solid EC ridge along with that nice Greenland Block.

 

Great job Tom, I can't wait to see how this plays out.  Do you think that if the Thanksgiving storm does indeed line up with the storm from Oct 10-13th that the models are missing on temps?  I think if may end of much colder than what the models are showing.

[Clinton]

@ Clinton, thanks for sharing those maps...they certainly line up with the LR ideas....question, does the EPS show a significant cool down post Thanksgiving storm???

Shows a little bit of one but I would expect more.