November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

00z ICON is a Dakotas special. Clearly a lot of solutions on the table yet.

 

Yup. Got days to go on this. Thus it's quite odd to see CPC including my area in the frozen potential during the timeframe:

 

[St Paul Storm]

0z GFS pretty far west so far too.

[jcwxguy]

Central Nebraska special

[St Paul Storm]

979 over KC. Total sweet spot. Too bad tomorrow isn’t next Wednesday.

[jaster220]

979 over KC. Total sweet spot. Too bad tomorrow isn’t next Wednesday.

 

  Yeah, but just think, that means you're gonna get your money's worth outta this ride

[jaster220]

  OK state record??

 

[St Paul Storm]

  Yeah, but just think, that means you're gonna get your money's worth outta this ride

 

Or, it means I'm going to watch this far too long only to get shafted. 

[clintbeed1993]

Central Nebraska special

 

OMG, that 28 inches is right on me.  Unfortunately this will likely cut overhead completely dashing my dreams.

[Stormgeek]

This is going to be quite the run. O_o

[Stormhunter87]

Gfs is on crack. Each run has been different. But wow on central Nebraska.

[St Paul Storm]

GEM gets it down to 986 but wow what a mess of a storm. Huge rain shield all the way to Winnipeg. 

[jcwxguy]

Euro way north

[GDR]

[clintbeed1993]

AE64F17F-1F0F-489F-B5AA-913D26857C53.jpeg

 

That is trash. Go figure

[bud2380]

Massive changes on the euro. Slowed down two days and went way north.

[Tom]

Started a Storm Thread for our Pre-Thanksgiving Holiday storm system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2126-1126-1128-winter-storm/

[Tom]

Hmmmm.....December to Remember????  I wonder what will happen when the Strat explodes with a SSW event as we flip the month into December....'dat Polar Vortex has eyes for North America.  Folks, things are about to get interesting as storms will be plentiful over the next couple weeks.  IMHO, there will be a Glacier being built across the heartland of the nation and its going to get down right cold!  Winter is about to settle in and never look back...stay thirsty my friends!

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The SOI is tanking and just adds as another caddle prod to fire up the atmosphere within the next 1-2 weeks...perfect timing as we enter met Winter.

 

 

 

20 Nov 2019 1008.52 1008.75 -19.79  
19 Nov 2019 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36  
18 Nov 2019 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36

[Grizzcoat]

Two runs in a row (00Z and 06Z) of the GFS with some serious cold for early Dec.....

[Niko]

I am so looking forward to the 50F or better tomorrow. Cannot wait. It will feel great w a bit of sunshine b4 the rain moves in. It has been awhile.

[Clinton]

I am so looking forward to the 50F or better tomorrow. Cannot wait. It will feel great w a bit of sunshine b4 the rain moves in. It has been awhile.

The only thing that's going to keep me from hitting 70 today are the clouds this afternoon.  Last warm day for awhile.

[Stacsh]

I am so looking forward to the 50F or better tomorrow. Cannot wait. It will feel great w a bit of sunshine b4 the rain moves in. It has been awhile.

Snow gone yet? our 6" we received disappeared a few days ago sans shaded areas and small piles.  Enough to finalize the leaves. 

[St Paul Storm]

There’s a small chance that MSP could set (or at least get close to) the all-time wettest year on record with the rain tonight. Looks like a decent chance of the backside changing to snow tomorrow morning. We officially need 0.87” liquid precip.

[Grizzcoat]

There’s a small chance that MSP could set (or at least get close to) the all-time wettest year on record with the rain tonight. Looks like a decent chance of the backside changing to snow tomorrow morning. We officially need 0.87” liquid precip.

That's crazy. Here at DSM we 47"+ for the year. i think 55" or 56" is the record so that is not going to happen but almost a shoe in for Top 5-- Top 3 I believe starts around 51".  FTR- Orlondo FL avg yearly rainfall is 52".. unreal wet year all over the Upper Midwest.

[westMJim]

Another typical cloudy November day here in west Michigan. With the cloudy skies the temperature here at my house is now at 39.  Yesterdays official H/L of 41/37 was one of the rare days that end up have a 0° departure and was only the 2^nd this month that was not below average. So far this months mean at Grand Rapids is 32.8° and that is a departure of -9.5° With no snow fall yesterday the monthly total remains at 6.5” and it is 6.8” for the season. With 42 days to go Grand Rapids total precipitation of 45.64” is already the 6^th wettest in Grand Rapids recorded history, the record is 48.80” in 2008.

[westMJim]

In 2014 between November 16^th and the 20^th 27.4” of snow fell at Grand Rapids.

[westMJim]

There’s a small chance that MSP could set (or at least get close to) the all-time wettest year on record with the rain tonight. Looks like a decent chance of the backside changing to snow tomorrow morning. We officially need 0.87” liquid precip.

Here in Grand Rapids the total is now at 45.64" and GR is already at the 6th wettest year of recorded history. So this has been a wide spread wetness.

[Stacsh]

In 2014 between November 16^th and the 20^th 27.4” of snow fell at Grand Rapids.

 

Do you have a total at Muskegon for this time frame?  I was in Grand Haven and we got no where near the amounts as inland.  Wind was much too strong for the immediate lakeshore.  

[westMJim]

Do you have a total at Muskegon for this time frame?  I was in Grand Haven and we got no where near the amounts as inland.  Wind was much too strong for the immediate lakeshore.  

At Muskegon the total between the 16^th and the 20^th was a reported 11.7” it was real warm just before the start so the ground was warm not sure how much acclimated as the most on the ground was reported as 8” at Muskegon on the 20^th and in GR the most on the ground was a reported 8”from the 18^th to the 22^nd I was up in Bay City at the time and we came home after much of the snow fell but I remember the roads being snow covered in GR I do not recall there being much snow on the ground until Howard City.

[Stormhunter87]

Gfs showing a second storm after Thanksgiving. Very interesting one at that. Running it warm but if we get snow then I bet that will change.

[jaster220]

Hmmmm.....December to Remember????  I wonder what will happen when the Strat explodes with a SSW event as we flip the month into December....'dat Polar Vortex has eyes for North America.  Folks, things are about to get interesting as storms will be plentiful over the next couple weeks.  IMHO, there will be a Glacier being built across the heartland of the nation and its going to get down right cold!  Winter is about to settle in and never look back...stay thirsty my friends!

 

     Can't remember ever seeing that much displacement at 10 mb level. That's jaw-dropping! 

[Niko]

The only thing that's going to keep me from hitting 70 today are the clouds this afternoon.  Last warm day for awhile.

Yep, looks like it goes BN thereafter and much BN as we enter December.

[Niko]

Snow gone yet? our 6" we received disappeared a few days ago sans shaded areas and small piles.  Enough to finalize the leaves. 

Hard to believe my foot of snow dissipated. I now have patches of snow around. Some are huge piles.

[Niko]

Its beautiful outside. Sun & clouds mix w temp at 43F. What a needed break this is between a pattern reload.

[OKwx2k4]

This storm will affect me. I have no doubt although it's still 10 days away.

[jaster220]

Hard to believe my foot of snow dissipated. I now have patches of snow around. Some are huge piles.

 

Snow lives an extremely fragile existence at our latitude. When it's melting from both directions, we actually did very well keeping it around as long as we did. 

[Niko]

Snow lives an extremely fragile existence at our latitude. When it's melting from both directions, we actually did very well keeping it around as long as we did. 

And considering its still November.

[Niko]

As for the Thanksgiving storm, it has potential for mby. Nao tanks on the EPS. I would not be surprised if the TG storm keeps trending more east. All depends on how real that block is. I think the euro did that at 0z. So, as of now, models are confused and are struggling with the potential blocking. We will see how it all pans out.

 

Early December looks nice. Cold n stormy.

[Hawkeye]

The euro shows an active pattern, but now there are no major dips in the jet stream, so no big storms.

[Tom]

I'm hearing a lot of mets are now beginning to jump on board for an active/cold and stormy pattern from Thanksgiving into early December.  #BuildTheGlacier

 

 

Bret Walts

‏ @BretWaltsWx 3h3 hours ago

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Active sub-tropical jet, blocking and a trough into a ridge setup --> great combination for an active pattern with big storm systems into early December. This pattern has the potential to be a big snow producer for someone in the Midwest.