November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Great job Tom, I can't wait to see how this plays out.  Do you think that if the Thanksgiving storm does indeed line up with the storm from Oct 10-13th that the models are missing on temps?  I think if may end of much colder than what the models are showing.

Let's see how the models trend with the strength of the SER and the Greenland Block...

[Tom]

Boy, now that is what I call a major SSW event....badda bing badda boom!  Notice also how the heights rise near the NW Territories and stay put in this region.  That is a big deal bc it suggest HP to develop in this region and keep seeding cold into the pattern as we get into December.

[Stormhunter87]

06z GFS changing it's tune. Hmmm not sure if that's good or bad.

[Tom]

Just read this tweet from Judan Cohen and I'm thrilled to hear that his model is suggesting a major SSW event come mid-December.  Man, my intuition was right about this the whole time.  I'm getting goose bumps just thinking about this....this is going to be a fun fun season my friends!

 

 

 

 

A sudden stratospheric warming is looking more & more likely for early to mid-December. Our speculative #PolarVortex model predicts the potential for a major warming/disruption around December 15. I speak at #AGU19 on December 12, I might spend my 12 minutes showing PV animations

[Bryan1117]

Man, I really hope the EURO is onto something with the pattern going forward. GFS doesn't have much cold air at all. It's been very dry and boring here this last month, would be nice to get something by Thanksgiving.

This pattern has certainly been very dry and boring here, while our friends to the east have seen plenty of moisture/snow so far. At least the dry and cold weather is over, the weekend was pretty nice with temps in the 50’s and 60’s both days.

 

Hoping things change soon, and it looks like it will - at this point I would even take a bout of cold rain or a rain/snow mix.

 

Yesterday there were a couple of grass fires near Ashland, which is between Omaha and Lincoln, we just cannot get a happy medium around here anymore - it’s either too much feast or famine.

[Grizzcoat]

Shows a little bit of one but I would expect more.

Definitely seems like a pattern shift on the EPS after the Thanksgiving(ish)  system as pattern goes more NW from zonal at 500mb. JB even mentioned this system in a video just a few days ago.

[Clinton]

Just read this tweet from Judan Cohen and I'm thrilled to hear that his model is suggesting a major SSW event come mid-December.  Man, my intuition was right about this the whole time.  I'm getting goose bumps just thinking about this....this is going to be a fun fun season my friends!

Just using the LRC as a guide we could see record shattering cold for Christmas.

[St Paul Storm]

Some good stuff from MPX morning disco. I love sipping coffee and reading these gems:

 

Beyond this period as we get toward Thanksgiving, we continue to see

in the ensembles and some of the deterministic models that our

pattern will start turning active. This would be in line with a

typical atmospheric response we see to the MJO, which is fairly

strong right now, making a transition from phase 8 (Africa) back

into phase 1 (Indian Ocean). The Rossby wave train this convection

sets off tends to lead a more active weather pattern across the

central CONUS about 10-20 days after a transition to phase 8. The

current MJO did that back on the 13th, so 10 to 20 days later would

place the Thanksgiving timeframe within when we could expect to see

more active weather here. It certainly is not a done deal that

something more impactful will be seen around Thanksgiving, but at

least the background large scale flow we will be dealing with would

at least support seeing more active weather during/near the holiday

weekend. Something to keep an eye on with the amount of travel that

happens then.

[jaster220]

Just using the LRC as a guide we could see record shattering cold for Christmas.

 

HELLO ghost of Dec '83?

[Niko]

Sunny skies and gorgeous outside, but nippy w temps at 32F.

[jaster220]

Whoa! Just need this with some colder air around

 

[Niko]

Whoa! Just need this with some colder air around

 

20191118 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh216-252.gif

A little more south per track would be nice also and game on.

[Niko]

Plenty of time for the TG Day storm. Expect plenty of changes from today till middle of next week.

[Stacsh]

Plenty of time for the TG Day storm. Expect plenty of changes from today till middle of next week.

 Hope so, but not a lot of HP north of here to supply cold air for Michigan for the next 10 days.  Rain storm after rain storm.  Hopefully the  storminess stay active during the winter.  

[Niko]

 Hope so, but not a lot of HP north of here to supply cold air for Michigan for the next 10 days.  Rain storm after rain storm.  Hopefully the  storminess stay active during the winter.  

I see your point, but keep in mind that models are not seeing the foreseeable pattern and are playing catch-up attm.

[St Paul Storm]

It pains me to say this, but congrats to the GFS for sniffing out the Wed system this week. Looks like the northern stream is going to interact enough to produce a decent storm. Still unsure about snow potential here but good to see things picking up on the western edge of the sub.

[Niko]

It has been a week now w full snowcover. Beautiful Winter Wonderland it has been in mby. I am down to about 3-5".

[westMJim]

Yesterday here at Grand Rapids the official H/L was 39/20. For today the average H/L is now at 46/32. The record high is 70 set in 2016 and the record low is 11 set in 1959. The most snow fall on this date is 9.6” in 2014. At this time it is currently 40 here with mostly sunny skies. The snow is not all gone except for the snow piles. Last year on this date the H/L was 38/28.

[jaster220]

A little more south per track would be nice also and game on.

 

haha, can't be greedy. I'd live with the messiness of that track in order to get a wound-up beast as depicted. A rain to snow scenario is much more likely this time of year anyways. JB has it tracking further south thru the OHV fwiw. Said we are entering a great pattern for snow, and quite a bit of the eastern CONUS could be covered by month's end. It's still too far out for models to get any kind of handle on this imho. Just fun watching eye-candy runs and painting "what if" scenarios for now. 

[jaster220]

It has been a week now w full snowcover. Beautiful Winter Wonderland it has been in mby. I am down to about 3-5".

 

Yep. Odd driving into work so many days with snow cover like it's #realwinter

[Niko]

haha, can't be greedy. I'd live with the messiness of that track in order to get a wound-up beast as depicted. A rain to snow scenario is much more likely this time of year anyways. JB has it tracking further south thru the OHV fwiw. Said we are entering a great pattern for snow, and quite a bit of the eastern CONUS could be covered by month's end. It's still too far out for models to get any kind of handle on this imho. Just fun watching eye-candy runs and painting "what if" scenarios for now. 

That is how I see it happening eventually, considering where the position of SER will be situated and GB as well.

[Niko]

Yep. Odd driving into work so many days with snow cover like it's #realwinter

I know..crazy snowy November it has been. It feels and looks like Winter out there.

[bud2380]

Canadian continues to advertise a potent weekend system in Kansas and Missouri.  Euro has this as well, but further north and considerably weaker.  GFS has no sniff of this.

 

[Stormhunter87]

Gfs has the storms but running warm... hmm

[Clinton]

Canadian continues to advertise a potent weekend system in Kansas and Missouri.  Euro has this as well, but further north and considerably weaker.  GFS has no sniff of this.

 

Thats perfect for me but I will be in Branson that weekend.

[jaster220]

Canadian continues to advertise a potent weekend system in Kansas and Missouri.  Euro has this as well, but further north and considerably weaker.  GFS has no sniff of this.

 

 

I scanned temp profiles and the GEM is by far the coldest global at that time stamp Sat morning. All the others are marginal and warm into the 30's during the day. Not saying it's wrong, but from this range it's a bit on it's own with such a cold solution. Overnight Euro has a decent system too, but takes the snow further north and/or NE where it sees enough cold to support a decent snow event. As said by others, GFS is about the warmest game in town attm.  

 

Euro temps Sat morning

 

 

[Niko]

Thats perfect for me but I will be in Branson that weekend.

That looks like a good snowevent there. Hope it verifies for ya. But, if you are in Branson.......

[Clinton]

That looks like a good snowevent there. Hope it verifies for ya. But, if you are in Branson.......

Euro has some snow here Friday evening but it's weak very weak.

[Niko]

Euro has some snow here Friday evening but it's weak very weak.

Hopefully, that changes. Also, better to get at least some snow then nothing I guess.

[Niko]

Just went outside and man, my snowcover is taking a beating from what I saw. I think by Thursday, especially w that rainstorm coming, it will all be melted away. Well, cannot complaint at all. We had it real sweet here through most of November so far.

 

ATTM, its partly cloudy and temps still BN. At 44F. It feels balmy.

[Niko]

I scanned temp profiles and the GEM is by far the coldest global at that time stamp Sat morning. All the others are marginal and warm into the 30's during the day. Not saying it's wrong, but from this range it's a bit on it's own with such a cold solution. Overnight Euro has a decent system too, but takes the snow further north and/or NE where it sees enough cold to support a decent snow event. As said by others, GFS is about the warmest game in town attm.  

 

Euro temps Sat morning

 

20191118 0z_Euro 2m AGL_h132.png

That cold air barely ova my region. Just enough to provide some frozen precipitation.

[Stormhunter87]

Euro still coming in hot with that turkey day storm. Of course it dumps the hardest through central Kansas when we are going to be traveling there.

[Clinton]

12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.

[Niko]

Euro still coming in hot with that turkey day storm. Of course it dumps the hardest through central Kansas when we are going to be traveling there.

Any more bets going on??!!

[Tom]

12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.

That run is exactly what I needed to see as the blocking slows down the storm and it occludes near the GL’s.

[Niko]

12z Euro with a powerhouse storm.

Wow..that looks impressive. Due east south east movement or further south track and we amigo are in business.

[Clinton]

That run is exactly what I needed to see as the blocking slowlys down the storm and it occludes near the GL’s.

No doubt.  I bet Gary no longer thinks it's a much longer cycle this year.  Look at these totals+

[Clinton]

Wow..that looks impressive. Due east south east movement or further south track and we amigo are in business.

I think it may track a little further SE but that will be very close, good run by the Euro.

[Niko]

I think it may track a little further SE but that will be very close, good run by the Euro.

It will be a fun storm to track. Looks like it has a ton of moisture w it. GOM open for business.

[Clinton]

It will be a fun storm to track. Looks like it has a ton of moisture w it. GOM open for business.

It's juiced!  Lets hope we get a SE trend.