12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[Clinton]

Winter Weather Advisory 2 counties north and 2 counties south of me. That’s hard to do. The sad part is those that receive snow it’s looking like it will melt in the upcoming pattern. Local met says more than likely a brown Christmas around here.

Ya no chance this survives.  It is so hard to get a white Christmas down here.

[Clinton]

Congrats KC/MO and the rest of the S MW members...I think it's a swing and a miss up here for this one...I just don't see us getting much if anything from this one up this way.  Been a long time since the southern members cashed in a decent snowstorm so its about time.

 

Taking a look at the SREF's and they keep on suggesting a 2" event up here but I'm having a hard time believe it based on what I'm seeing and the strength of the system overall.  At 500mb it really doesn't develop as it heads east and gets strung out.  The ridge out ahead of it is weaker than it has shown in previous days.

 

At Toledo, looks like your in the game to score a good hit from this one...

 

00z Euro...

 

Thanks, I wish I was sharing this with more but we have a great winter ahead.  Lots of storms for everyone to cash in on.

[Mi_Matthew]

Granted it was likely written without 6z guidance(but is it really valuable?), per morning AFDs GRR is more bullish than DTX on this system over-performing. Both offices do concede they don't know/confidence is low. As dismal as it may look up here in the Mitt I wouldn't rule anything out yet.

[Tom]

Thanks, I wish I was sharing this with more but we have a great winter ahead. Lots of storms for everyone to cash in on.

You’ve been working hard following this storm along with others. Good luck bud! I think your close to the jack zone. 6”+ is looking better for your region and KC, esp if the banding sets up right. These meso features will be ironed out by tomorrow I believe. I’m sure you guys are all stoked! To get that much snow in mid December is like an early Christmas present.

[Clinton]

6z EPS mean staying strong

[Clinton]

You’ve been working hard following this storm along with others. Good luck bud! I think your close to the jack zone. 6”+ is looking better for your region and KC, esp if the banding sets up right. These meso features will be ironed out by tomorrow I believe. I’m sure you guys are all stoked! To get that much snow in mid December is like an early Christmas present.

I am super stoked.  Lots of work to do on the farm to get ready, it gonna be a busy day.

[Mi_Matthew]

12z NAM has started my day on a more hopeful note! Second wave really digs this time.

[Tom]

It may. Tom could chime in, but I think there's at least a slight lag time involved between readings and net pattern effects, even if a couple days. Still, better to have it going to neutral instead of rising further. Here in SMI we actually do well with a more or less neutral NAO. If it gets too negative everything pushes SE of us.

In terms of blocking and approaching storms, you want at least a few days prior to the systems arrival to reap the benefits of the blocking pattern. As you said, there is a slight lag period. With that being said tho, the blocking setting up during the 2nd half of the month will pay dividends.

[Hawkeye]

The lead wave kills it for areas farther north.  The 12z NAM has shifted a good amount of energy back into the second wave, but the first wave keeps it suppressed so nothing can get up here.  The nw flow out of Canada isn't helping, either.  Congrats to KS/MO/IL.

[KCSmokey]

I am super stoked. Lots of work to do on the farm to get ready, it gonna be a busy day.

Agree! Stores are going to be nuts today. We haven’t had an over 4” snow storm for quite some time.

[Clinton]

12z NAM really looking good for KC area

[Clinton]

3KM a little further north

[CentralNebWeather]

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

 

[GDR]

That’s weird

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS

[mlgamer]

I think the second wave will just miss me to the south as the 12z GFS and ICON are showing. Looks to me like the usual 1-3" from the first wave and nothing from the second IMBY. This seems the most reasonable outcome to me...hope I'm wrong.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

 

[Niko]

Clinton buddy--

 

Enjoy this snowstorm. It likes your area. You are looking golden for a nice swath of 4-8"

[Clinton]

Clinton buddy--

 

Enjoy this snowstorm. It likes your area. You are looking golden for a nice swath of 4-8"

Thank you my man!  Hope you have a great weekend!

[Clinton]

12z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121412_78_5660_220.png

Thanks for sharing this, looks like the UK thinks I will do well.

[Niko]

Thank you my man!  Hope you have a great weekend!

Thx...you too!

[Clinton]

I think the second wave will just miss me to the south as the 12z GFS and ICON are showing. Looks to me like the usual 1-3" from the first wave and nothing from the second IMBY. This seems the most reasonable outcome to me...hope I'm wrong.

I hope you score more lets see what the Euro has here soon.

[Niko]

NOAA:

The race is then on for Monday, as an upper level wave rounds the
bend over the Four Corners region, with equally important upper
level wave/trough over south Central Canada approaching and swinging
through Ontario Monday morning. 00z GFS/Euro/Icon now suggesting the
northern stream wave will be faster, leading to mostly upper level
confluent flow over Lower Michigan, with a weaker and more subdued
southern wave tracking along or just south of the Ohio River. The
00z NAM is on the opposite end, with a faster and stronger (farther
north) southern wave, with still a bunch of GFS ensemble members
providing support to this solution. Will continue to highlight the
potential for several inches of snow as NAM brings in 3-4 g/kg of
specific humidity in the 850-700 layer, but the jury is still out
with the 00z Euro remaining a key witness, and confidence remains
low.

[Clinton]

12z GFSB6F97F5E-AF34-4158-80A0-4FEB73E1E946.gif

Looks like you may get a little out of this?

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro

 

The Euro is really bringing this one south.  I'm still in good shape, but now on the N. edge of the heavy band.

[Niko]

Jaster--

 

We are still looking ok I guess.

 

Fwiw:

Later Monday, the accumulating snow will reach the central Appalachians and is expected to bend northward toward the lower Great Lakes region as well. So not only can people in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo, New York, expect accumulating snow from the storm, but some snow is in store for Chicago, Detroit and Toronto.

 

[mlgamer]

I hope you score more lets see what the Euro has here soon.

The 12z Euro shifted to the southeast as well...I only get 1.5" after 6PM Sunday.  Not throwing in the towel yet, but the 12z guidance overall moved the second wave away from me. NAM models seem to have a north bias and overdo QPF a lot so not really taking those too seriously at the moment. I better go sacrifice a chicken in the backyard or something...

[Clinton]

LOL  I think you are good for 3+ I'd say you have a shot at 5.  Short range model time.
 

[Clinton]

Jaster--

 

We are still looking ok I guess.

 

Fwiw:

Later Monday, the accumulating snow will reach the central Appalachians and is expected to bend northward toward the lower Great Lakes region as well. So not only can people in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo, New York, expect accumulating snow from the storm, but some snow is in store for Chicago, Detroit and Toronto.

 

CMC still likes you

[Niko]

CMC still likes you

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean and members

[Clinton]

12z RGEM with snow still falling at hr 48

[Tom]

12z GFS mean and members

Your locked! #powderday

[james1976]

Go Clinton! Hope you score big. You've been locked in for days with this one.

[Clinton]

I may get a WSW

[mlgamer]

Go Clinton! Hope you score big. You've been locked in for days with this one.

Clinton, I think you're looking good for this one...hope it delivers!

 

18z 12k NAM is almost comical for me....shows a range in Shawnee (my) County of 2" in the northwest corner to 8" inches in the southeast corner.  Talk about living on the edge...  

[Niko]

I may get a WSW

I think you will amigo ...your amts warrants a WSW. Keep an eye on todays 4pm package.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local forecasts going with a general 2-4” in my area. Some may get 5”, some may get as little as 1”. Very light winds so probably very minimal travel concerns from what I’m reading. Doesn’t mean there won’t be some snow covered roads by tomorrow morning.