12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[Tom]

Folks, will this be the first major snowstorm of the season that shares the wealth???  It's now beginning to look pretty darn good that a lot of our members from the central Plains/MW/Lower GL's are in the vicinity of a potential major snowstorm.  Surprisingly, the GFS/GEFS have been leading the way with this storm, although, one can argue the Euro flashed this storm potential on one run at Day 9 but then lost it and suppressed it but now is coming back to life with this storm.

 

Let's discuss....

 

While there are several different solutions to this potential storm track, the GFS/GEFS has been steadfast of developing a storm system coming out of the 4 corners region and entering the "slot" and digging deep into the S Plains and shooting up NE into the OHV.  See animation below....this has been on of the most common storm tracks of the season.

 

00z GEFS showing some decent grouping near the OHV....

 

 

 

 

 

Big time increase in the snow shield across the Plains/MW region...

 

[Tom]

00z EPS finally caved (yes, it's odd saying this)...but gotta give kuddos to the american model on this one...confidence is growing now that we are inside 5 days on this one and the operational/ensembles are painting a good chance for a large scale storm system.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z GFS...this run was a bit whacky but showing the signal....

 

[Grizzcoat]

^- agree. two waves of energy with the second being more robust and SE of the first one.  I don't buy it. I think more than normal of variations in guidance awaits us on this one...

[Grizzcoat]

maybe this should go in the DEC thread- but gonna post it here because it ultimately deals with this system and snowfall but also not buying the 06Z GFS as it has it -13F for 6AM on Thursday the 19th for DSM (just after said event)-- Euro has 28F. What's 41F degrees at day 8ish or 9ish? What's weird is that one would think the suppressed Euro would have it colder than 28F. More moving parts next week than normal imo.

[Tom]

00z Canadian....

 

 

 

[Clinton]

EPS mean and ensembles look nice.

 

[Tom]

EPS mean and ensembles look nice.

 

 

D**n, that looks much better...the juice potential is picking up!

[Clinton]

d**n, that looks much better...the juice potential is picking up!

It is I may have to up my expectations even more.  The trend is my friend!

[Tom]

06z GEFS still showing a lot of potential...the trends are what I'm really looking for at this point...

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS showing a couple 980's/970's in the mix...boy, this thing could really blow up...

 

[Clinton]

GFS mean a little north of the EPS.

[Stormhunter87]

This storm looking similar to last year's that just missed us to the south.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yep, looks south of us at this point. Wouldn't want to add to our no more than 1" at a time snow events so far this year.

This storm looking similar to last year's that just missed us to the south.

[MIKEKC]

Uh oh, ICON is playing peekaboo with the Sunday/Monday storm, I can’t find it on the latest run.

[Clinton]

Uh oh, ICON is playing peekaboo with the Sunday/Monday storm, I can’t find it on the latest run.

It has it it's just very weak and south, it will recover soon.

[Stacsh]

12z GFS holds steady maybe a tick south.  

[Hawkeye]

Still a solid storm, but its development is delayed a bit compared to earlier runs, so it's mostly south and east of Iowa.  It's still five days out, though.

[bud2380]

GFS shifted significantly south in Iowa.  Big changes from the 00z run to 12z.  Go from full fledged snow storm to glancing blow, and likely to continue to shift south based on where the Euro has the snow.

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Lol...GFS has 16 inches in KC...

 

I’ll bet the under on that!

[GDR]

Toms going to pull this one in! Just sit back and watch

[james1976]

Zilch up here. 6" couple runs ago

[Madtown]

[indianajohn]

d**n, that looks much better...the juice potential is picking up!

 

EPS mean and ensembles look nice.

 

I will take Ensemble 14 for $1000 Alex!!! 

[sumweatherdude]

This puts me in the bullseye, so you can all be rest assured that this won't happen.

 

[Clinton]

This puts me in the bullseye, so you can all be rest assured that this won't happen.

 

Come on happy thoughts lol.  We are looking good on this one.

[GDR]

I will take Ensemble 14 for $1000 Alex!!!

. Looks like 03 for the win to me!!

[CentralNebWeather]

I am just going to wait it out.  They models have flip flopped so much that it is hard to have much confidence in any solution.  I guess I would say go with the Euro until proven wrong.  The 12Z NAM only goes to 84 hours, but has a shield of snow moving across Western Nebraska and Kansas so it will be interesting to watch that model in the coming few days.  Should be a fun weekend of tracking, but disappointment for some I'm sure.

[Clinton]

12z GFS with a good hit for southern Great Lakes region as well.

[Hawkeye]

Canadian is gradually losing the system now.  It's certainly not looking good for Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

UkMET appears to be way S and likely a non-event for most.

[Clinton]

12Z GFS mean

 

[Stacsh]

This thing has bust written all over it.  Not just the spread in the models, but the fact some barely have a storm.  

[FV-Mike]

This thing has bust written all over it.  Not just the spread in the models, but the fact some barely have a storm.  

 

Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? 

[Niko]

12z GFS with a good hit for southern Great Lakes region as well.

Where can I sign up for this.....

 

Clinton---this crushes your area

[Niko]

12Z GFS mean

 

More than half of the ensembles look good for SEMI.......

[Niko]

Tbh, I would like to see model agreement (at least 3 or more) as we approach towards Friday. Until then, expect lots and lots of changes, disappointments and of course, great model looks for some peeps on here. Its all in fun.

 

 

FWIW: as of now, I think Clinton is looking golden for a good snowfall.

[Clinton]

More than half of the ensembles look good for SEMI.......

It's a good run from Kansas all the way through you.  

[Clinton]

Tbh, I would like to see model agreement (at least 3 or more) as we approach towards Friday. Until then, expect lots and lots of changes, disappointments and of course, great model looks for some peeps on here. Its all in fun.

The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

[Niko]

Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? 

Absolutely not......this storm has major potential for a lot of peeps written all ova it!!!

[Tom]

The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

On top of that, there is sparse data in this region. Not surprised to see model mayhem.

[Clinton]

CMC provides a direct hit to me but not many others, hoping for more of a share the wealth storm.

[Clinton]

Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? 

Right now every model except the ICON gives us a good hit.

[Niko]

The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

Exactly. I expect models to come within some type of agreement w one another when the energy is finally onshore. I think Friday is the day where we see major changes, if not w the Thursday 4pm package.

[jaster220]

The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

 

My office:

 

Finally, pattern setting up for early next week bears watching as

chunk of energy dives south out of Northern Canada as a strong

Pacific jets pushes into North America. A number of GFS/Euro

ensemble members spin an area of low pressure up over the eastern

part of the U.S. by Tuesday, and some solutions spread rain and

snow into the Great Lakes.

 

[Niko]

CMC provides a direct hit to me but not many others, hoping for more of a share the wealth storm.

Im telling ya bud, you are in the hot spot track of this storm.

[FV-Mike]

Right now every model except the ICON gives us a good hit.

Right, I would say nothing is off the table until Saturday. 

[bud2380]

Not looking good in eastern Iowa.  

[Niko]

Check-out that GB and that SER. I like what I see here for a major storm to brew!

[james1976]

KC area definitely looking good