12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[Tom]

12Z GFS mean is perfect!!!!

You mean 06z???

[Clinton]

You mean 06z???

ooops lol

[Clinton]

The real 12z mean

[bud2380]

Canadian coming into line as well, still south of iowa, but time to shift north yet, if i'm being an optimist.  STill 4 days out.

 

 

[GDR]

I think I80 south in Iowa is the best shot of an incher maybe 2

[GDR]

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

 

[GDR]

[bud2380]

12z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121212_126_5660_220.png

 

Looks like a step back from last nights run.  Bottom line is models have come north some, but not far enough north for most of Iowa on most models.  

[jaster220]

  #15 on GEFS pls and thx!

 

My office seems intrigued..

 

The Monday system...

The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the
ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer
to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR
from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping
south into and southern stream system, this will be watched
closely to monitor evolution.

[jaster220]

Looks like a step back from last nights run.  Bottom line is models have come north some, but not far enough north for most of Iowa on most models.  

 

Looks better (further north) over my way tho. I don't think it even had precip into the Mitt on prior runs. Correct me if I'm wrong ofc. 

[Niko]

  #15 on GEFS pls and thx!

 

My office seems intrigued..

Dont worry bud...you will get snow outta this system.

[Niko]

 

With a stronger storm, a much broader area of snow, wintry mix and ice is likely, which would extend much farther to the north, despite an initial farther south dip.

In this case, Chicago and Detroit could receive several inches of accumulating snow. A second scenario suggests a stronger storm that dips farther to the south and perhaps close to the Gulf coast, then turns northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region and west of the Appalachians," Anderson added.

 

Man, this is a SUPERB TRACK.

 

I don't think Scenario#1 will be in play.

[Clinton]

No ice please!

 

With a stronger storm, a much broader area of snow, wintry mix and ice is likely, which would extend much farther to the north, despite an initial farther south dip.

In this case, Chicago and Detroit could receive several inches of accumulating snow. A second scenario suggests a stronger storm that dips farther to the south and perhaps close to the Gulf coast, then turns northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region and west of the Appalachians," Anderson added.

 

Man, this is a SUPERB TRACK.

 

I don't think Scenario# will be in play.

[Niko]

No ice please!

Yep, I saw that amigo. Dont worry. It is still a few days away. Tbh, this is the best looking track for a major snowstorm for the Detroit Metro Area.

[Tony]

12Z runs have seen most models bump a little north except for the GFS so hoping for Euro to follow suit going a little north this run.

[jcwxguy]

Euro weak

[Clinton]

Strengthens as it goes across MO.  Good news for me!

[Tom]

 Sadly, the Euro is back to the weaker side of things.  This would be a sad day for the Europeans if the GFS ends up winning the battle.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

 

[GDR]

[GDR]

Hasn’t the euro been really Consistent?

[bud2380]

Euro = strung out garbage.  Oh well.  The Euro is rarely THIS wrong.  Sure it can be off a little, but this would be a massive whiff if it corrected to the GFS.  

[Niko]

It might be leaving some energy out in the SW. Euro bias! I think it will catch up in later runs or tomorrow.

[Tom]

It might be leaving some energy out in the SW. Euro bias! I think it will catch up in later runs or tomorrow.

Yup, I saw that when looking at the 500mb maps.

[St Paul Storm]

One thing is for sure...the rest of the winter we’re either going to need to take the GFS more seriously, or we can recommend the gov’t shut it down for good.

[hlcater]

37D26BC9-D18B-45B5-8265-B947D55D4692.jpeg

lol

[Clinton]

12z EPS

[bud2380]

Up to 4 of 51 Ensembles with a good hit for my area. Double of the 2 from yesterday!

[FarmerRick]

37D26BC9-D18B-45B5-8265-B947D55D4692.jpeg

 

 

Gotta get those clicks!! hahaha

[jaster220]

 

With a stronger storm, a much broader area of snow, wintry mix and ice is likely, which would extend much farther to the north, despite an initial farther south dip.

In this case, Chicago and Detroit could receive several inches of accumulating snow. A second scenario suggests a stronger storm that dips farther to the south and perhaps close to the Gulf coast, then turns northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region and west of the Appalachians," Anderson added.

 

Man, this is a SUPERB TRACK.

 

I don't think Scenario#1 will be in play.

 

Idk what exactly scenario #1 was, but this is indeed what we want to see happen..

 

 

 

A second scenario suggests a stronger storm that dips farther to the south and perhaps close to the Gulf coast, then turns northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region and west of the Appalachians,"

 

That scenario could produce the BD amounts that one Euro run had (and some recent GFS runs)

[bud2380]

NAM isn't quite in full range yet, but coming in north like the GFS it seems.

 

[jaster220]

A few of those EPS members go big, so it's certainly possible that it's weak sauce over all because it's struggling with the 2-pieces situation and not resolving things completely. When will this be in better sampling range?? 

 

 

It might be leaving some energy out in the SW. Euro bias! I think it will catch up in later runs or tomorrow.

 

Yup, I saw that when looking at the 500mb maps.

 

12z EPS

 

[jaster220]

NAM isn't quite in full range yet, but coming in north like the GFS it seems.

 

 

That's still Sunday night. Is that even the main wave, or the pre-cursor?

[Clinton]

A few of those EPS members go big, so it's certainly possible that it's weak sauce over all because it's struggling with the 2-pieces situation and not resolving things completely. When will this be in better sampling range

Maybe by tomorrow night, but maybe not until Saturday morning.

[jaster220]

  Well, congrats S Plains Peeps for making it onto the WPC hazards map..

 

 

 

Unless things drastically ramp-up by tomorrow morning, I doubt those of us further east will make it inside the d3 window. No worries tho, we missed the window with Vet's Day as well. Most of the storms in the last 3 yrs have managed to trend strong

[Clinton]

  Well, congrats S Plains Peeps for making it onto the WPC hazards map..

 

20191212 hazards_d3_7.png

 

 

Unless things drastically ramp-up by tomorrow morning, I doubt those of us further east will make it inside the d3 window. No worries tho, we missed the window with Vet's Day as well. Most of the storms in the last 3 yrs have managed to trend strong

We are big time now!!  

[jaster220]

  #15 on GEFS pls and thx!

 

My office seems intrigued..

 

That was whomever wrote the am summary. By the pm update they've now decide "threat cancelled" - staying south. Going to be an interesting model game of "chicken" to see who caves..

[KCSmokey]

We are big time now!!  

We should celebrate or something!

 

Looking at the map, I see the panhandle of Alaska is under heaving precip hazard.  When I lived in Sitka, we would get 90" of precip (mostly rain it seemed) a year.

[jaster220]

Welp..

 

DTX also forecasting a major GFS cave-in pending..

 

 

Uncertainty pertaining to winter storm potential impacting Southeast

Michigan late Monday and early Tuesday:

Entrance region to 170 knot upper level jet axis will undergo change
early next week as entrance region slides east of the Rockies and
both secondary Pacific momentum pushes through subgeostrophic region
of mean trof and subtropical jet merges into the jet axis over
Mexico/Texas. The main forecast question of this package centers on
the potential for mid latitude cyclone development and accumulating
snow over Southeast Michigan Monday/Tuesday. Stonybrook Ensemble
Sensitivity analysis of the 12.00Z GEFS suggests greatest modes of
variation are due to the uncertainty (positional and magnitude) of
the surface anticyclone over the Great Lakes. The ECMWF has been
extremely consistent in being dry with the 12.00Z EPS solutions
overwhelmingly dry with just 2/50 solutions suggesting snow
accumulations. The GEFS and d(prog)/dt of operational GFS is the
opposite with an overwhelming signal for cold deformation snow over
the cwa. The CMC sensitivity analsyis strongly supports a slider
solution of the low pressure system squeezing northeast through the
Tennessee River Valley. Will forgo the GEFS output at this vantage
point given undispersion of members shown in the WWE cluster phase
space. What is of higher than normal predictability is that if
precipitation were to occur, it would fall in the form of snow. The
bottom line is the Day 5 (Monday/Tuesday) timeframe remains a period
of interest for an accumulating snow event, however, the smart money
strongly favors a suppressed southern solution to the mid latitude
cyclone, In other words, a dry solution is preferred for Southeast
Michigan.

 

I see they key in on the confluence from the Gulf Low that's not far enough ahead of this wave. Sad times when we have to be mega-teased like this from supposed advanced super-computers