Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

We’ve lost the EPS.

 

Hmm?

[Gradient Keeper]

Hope it keeps healing well! My brain surgery went smooth but my head still hurts sometimes so I'm thinking good thoughts for you.

Wow man. I didn't know you had brain surgery, or I had forgot if you've mentioned here in the forum. That "takes the cake" over anything I'm dealing with. I'm glad it went smoothy bud and will also think good thoughts for you.

 

Dude. What is wrong with your knee. Sounds like it’s ruining your life. Can you get a replacement?

A lot. It has been an ongoing issue. I had my first knee injury when I was 10. It worsened 7th grade. It kind of fluctuated and I did okay with it for a good many years. I had my first surgery in 1994 11 pins were put in. In 1996 shredded the cartilage while on a hike. It improved and it wasn't a problem for awhile. I did have an issue with it hyperextending sometimes or buckling on me. 2014 tore my meniscus. Had surgery 2015. Tore the cartilage 2015. Surgery 2016. 2017 went okay avoided surgery. Late 2017 had a complex meniscus tear and bone damage, so had surgery in 2018. 2019 went pretty good, but like I always do I overdid it hiking and fishing all Spring, Summer, and early Fall. 5 surgeries in, so I'm really close to the replacement. It has hyperextended 7-8 times the past 2 months and what I mean by that is when I take a step my knee will suddenly straighten and just as abruptly cave in collapsing afterward. The past 35 years I've had Osgood-Schlatter Disease, Patellofemoral Syndrome, and Osteochondritis. I don't know if it's ruining my life. My Vertigo sure did, but that has steadily improved the past 5-7 years to where I am no longer bedridden. It could always be worse and when my Father battled ALS that gave me a very clear and deeper perspective. Nothing I have to deal with holds a candle to that.

 

Praying for you and dj

Appreciate that.

 

My mom recently had total knee replacement couple weeks ago and in the process of recovering. Even so, it seems like she is so much better than before. It’s probably worth it.

Yeah I've heard the past 5-10 years knee replacement surgeries have improved and it seems more than half of the patients are benefiting from it tremendously. I'm glad your Mom is doing better.

 

[Jbolin]

We’ve lost the EPS.

Pic or it didn't hap.....

 

Fuckt it, who cares

[Gradient Keeper]

Updated percentages of snowfall shown by individual members for 00z Euro ensemble vs 12z...

 

KPAE: 98% 2 inches or more (same as 12z), 94% 4 inches or more (+14% vs 12z)

 

KSEA: 70% 2 inches or more (+14%), 32% 4 inches or more (+6%)

 

KPDX: 70% 2 inches or more (+10%), 38% 4 inches or more  (+10%)

 

An increase in totals across the board. In some cases, substantially so. 

 

Here is KPAE... Quite a bit of pink.

 

Really good analysis here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not totally sure how this EMCWF WMO model differs from the operational, but it looks nice for us! Better than it's 00z run last night for next weekend. Bridges the GOA and AK/Arctic ridges much better.

 

It also looks pretty nice at D10!

 

So close to bridging the SE ridge too. That would be 1969-status. Not necessarily at the surface tho.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Updated percentages of snowfall shown by individual members for 00z Euro ensemble vs 12z...

 

KPAE: 98% 2 inches or more (same as 12z), 94% 4 inches or more (+14% vs 12z)

 

KSEA: 70% 2 inches or more (+14%), 32% 4 inches or more (+6%)

 

KPDX: 70% 2 inches or more (+10%), 38% 4 inches or more (+10%)

 

An increase in totals across the board. In some cases, substantially so.

 

Here is KPAE... Quite a bit of pink.

 

Do you have EUG and SLE pls?

[MikeInEverett]

06z is running!!! Realistically unlikely it tops the 00z run lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 1

 

[Perturbed Member]

Hope it keeps healing well! My brain surgery went smooth but my head still hurts sometimes so I'm thinking good thoughts for you.

 

Hoping you continue to have a smooth recovery and do well!

[Gradient Keeper]

Mid-week trough might be colder this run.

[Perturbed Member]

Wow man. I didn't know you had brain surgery, or I had forgot if you've mentioned here in the forum. That "takes the cake" over anything I'm dealing with. I'm glad it went smoothy bud and will also think good thoughts for you.

 

A lot. It has been an ongoing issue. I had my first knee injury when I was 10. It worsened 7th grade. It kind of fluctuated and I did okay with it for a good many years. I had my first surgery in 1994 11 pins were put in. In 1996 shredded the cartilage while on a hike. It improved and it wasn't a problem for awhile. I did have an issue with it hyperextending sometimes or buckling on me. 2014 tore my meniscus. Had surgery 2015. Tore the cartilage 2015. Surgery 2016. 2017 went okay avoided surgery. Late 2017 had a complex meniscus tear and bone damage, so had surgery in 2018. 2019 went pretty good, but like I always do I overdid it hiking and fishing all Spring, Summer, and early Fall. 5 surgeries in, so I'm really close to the replacement. It has hyperextended 7-8 times the past 2 months and what I mean by that is when I take a step my knee will suddenly straighten and just as abruptly cave in collapsing afterward. The past 35 years I've had Osgood-Schlatter Disease, Patellofemoral Syndrome, and Osteochondritis. I don't know if it's ruining my life. My Vertigo sure did, but that has steadily improved the past 5-7 years to where I am no longer bedridden. It could always be worse and when my Father battled ALS that gave me a very clear and deeper perspective. Nothing I have to deal with holds a candle to that.

 

Appreciate that.

 

Yeah I've heard the past 5-10 years knee replacement surgeries have improved and it seems more than half of the patients are benefiting from it tremendously. I'm glad your Mom is doing better.

 

 

I've been a lurker around here and Mark's blog since probably ~2005, not posting much, I do remember you complaining about your vertigo issues many times over the years. Glad to hear you're doing better with that. Debilitating crap like that is just no fun. Hoping your knee issues also continue to improve.

 

It's funny how this community spends literally decades together and accumulates a pretty good deal of knowledge on the issues and personalities of other posters and in most cases without ever meeting or seeing the others. Quite an interesting social interaction. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I've been a lurker around here and Mark's blog since probably ~2005, not posting much, I do remember you complaining about your vertigo issues many times over the years. Glad to hear you're doing better with that. Debilitating crap like that is just no fun. Hoping your knee issues also continue to improve.

 

It's funny how this community spends literally decades together and accumulates a pretty good deal of knowledge on the issues and personalities of other posters and in most cases without ever meeting or seeing the others. Quite an interesting social interaction. 

Ah you were way back then? Cool. Yeah. I missed out on a lot. I had to quit my bowling career too. Yeah our weather community has become quite something else. I think that's a pretty neat thing. Definitely more ups, more enjoyment over anything else.

[Meatyorologist]

Who's ready for a few more rounds of bad models and meltdowns?

[Gradient Keeper]

Yep heights lowering bit more quickly Day 2-3

[Requiem]

Who's ready for a few more rounds of bad models and meltdowns?

 

I am! Ensembles are starting to look good though, which gives me some hope

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Requiem]

Yep heights lowering bit more quickly Day 2-3

 

OK, very stupid question-- heights lowering (presumably over Alaska) is a good thing, correct?

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Ah you were way back then? Cool. Yeah. I missed out on a lot. I had to quit my bowling career too. Yeah our weather community has become quite something else. I think that's a pretty neat thing. Definitely more ups, more enjoyment over anything else.

But alway's make sure you wear your soft soled shoes doesn't hurt your feet as much when jumping off the band wagon.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping the low Day 4 to 4.5 keeps trending 8-9mb weaker like the 00z had it.

[Perturbed Member]

Ah you were way back then? Cool. Yeah. I missed out on a lot. I had to quit my bowling career too. Yeah our weather community has become quite something else. I think that's a pretty neat thing. Definitely more ups, more enjoyment over anything else.

 

Yeah I think you went by AtmosphericWrath, I distinctly remember you comparing model predictions with WV and IR loops on Mark's blog, must have been your earlier days doing that I think. Good times. Mark's blog was pretty good until it was overrun by trolls. Little value there now other than to see Mark's thoughts.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

OK, very stupid question-- heights lowering (presumably over Alaska) is a good thing, correct?

I thought it meant the opposite higher heights mean ridge building into Alaska?

[Gradient Keeper]

OK, very stupid question-- heights lowering (presumably over Alaska) is a good thing, correct?

Heights were lowering more quickly over BC, Washington. Over Alaska it would just mean the arctic air is in place. Well depending on how low the 500mb heights are.

[Perturbed Member]

OK, very stupid question-- heights lowering (presumably over Alaska) is a good thing, correct?

 

You want heights building over Alaska. Higher heights = ridging/high pressure. You want the ridge to dislodge the cold air over there and send it south to us. 

Heights over the PNW will drop as that happens, indicating the presence of colder air over us. 

[Timmy]

The ICON looked pretty good at hour 180. I think something is coming, we just probably will not have a great idea until the middle of the week.

lol, dude, this is why no one can tell if you are serious sometimes. You wait until the icon’s longer run to jump on board?

[Gradient Keeper]

06z GFS 850s at HR81 are around -4c to -6c, which is a degree or two colder than 00z.

Yeah mid-week trough trending much cooler the past several runs.

 

Day 3.5 past 4 runs. Nice!

 

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Heights were lowering more quickly over BC, Washington. Over Alaska it would just mean the arctic air is in place. Well depending on how low the 500mb heights are.

O.k. but another quick question I see Shawnigan lake mentions kicking whatever out of Alaska is good I presume the vortex? never mind answered dislodge the cold air our way.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking good!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Meatyorologist]

Hoping the low Day 4 to 4.5 keeps trending 8-9mb weaker like the 00z had it.

Well , you got it and then some! lmao 13mb weaker

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah I think you went by AtmosphericWrath, I distinctly remember you comparing model predictions with WV and IR loops on Mark's blog, must have been your earlier days doing that I think. Good times. Mark's blog was pretty good until it was overrun by trolls. Little value there now other than to see Mark's thoughts.

Yep, also Gradient Keeper, and Dr. Rob. It is where it all began for so many of us. Our love for weather and knowledge just exploded there. Yeah my zoomed WV images and what not. Yeah the trolls and I put up with way too much of it to where I finally left and then created my Facebook weather group. Yeah its a bummer that the blog became, but that is squarely Mark's fault he allowed it to happen. It never should have.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow Day 4.5

 

Low is 16mb weaker! 6z 1002mb, 00z 986mb

 

[Requiem]

Yep, also Gradient Keeper, and Dr. Rob. It is where it all began for so many of us. Our love for weather and knowledge just exploded there. Yeah my zoomed WV images and what not. Yeah the trolls and I put up with way too much of it to where I finally left and then created my Facebook weather group. Yeah its a bummer that the blog became, but that is squarely Mark's fault he allowed it to happen. It never should have.

 

The blog over there just isn't that informative anymore. There are some really knowledgeable folks over here, whereas that place has become a haven for trolls.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z may deliver arctic air much sooner into southern BC, northern Washington.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

O.k. but another quick question I see Shawnigan lake mentions kicking whatever out of Alaska is good I presume the vortex? never mind answered dislodge the cold air our way.

Yeah, the vortex. Don't want it kicked out too far east though.

[Meatyorologist]

Large difference in how the 06z handles the first low. Doesn't intrude warm air into Canada as badly, brings forward arctic air by a couple hundred miles.

[Perturbed Member]

So far on the 06z GFS, the ridge is expanding into AK even more aggressively than on the 00z. Seems like the cold air is arriving faster as DJ mentioned. 

[bainbridgekid]

Cold air much further South in BC at hour 138 than the 0z or 18z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Large difference in how the 06z handles the first low. Doesn't intrude warm air into Canada as badly, brings forward arctic air by a couple hundred miles.

Correct. It's moving southward in BC more quickly.