gabel23 Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 Well this has gone up at least! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 18z NAM taking it way north. Seems like an outlier at this point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 I was half joking about this ending up in North Dakota. My gosh. Hope this isn’t the trend. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 18z RGEM. Still wraparound snowing in Nebraska at 84 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 34 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z NAM taking it way north. Seems like an outlier at this point... Been a while since I've been able to joke about how the NAM is the one model with "North" in its name. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 18z ICON is a little bit SW from it's 12z run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: A cold front sweeps through the area Sunday morning, and as cold air arrives, this rain will gradually transition to snow from west to east Sunday into Sunday night. There is some uncertainty on timing of this changeover, with some guidance showing a more rapid transition occurring mostly during the day on Sunday. Fortunately, regardless of model solution, the probability for significant winter impacts on Sunday (Christmas Eve) is relatively low. The latest NBM shows only a 10 to 20% chance for even 1" of snow accumulation through Sunday night. The forecast for Monday (Christmas Day) and Tuesday is still rather uncertain. The upper low is expected to stall as it moves over the central Plains, but the specific timing and location varies widely from model run to model run. Unfortunately, this significantly reduces our confidence in expected snowfall. Some runs have several inches of snow on the backside of the low, while others keep it progressive and largely skip our area entirely. Looking at ensembles, the highest probabilities for 3" or more of snow is focused over northern Nebraska. Both the 12Z EPS and GEFS trended upwards slightly from the 00Z runs. The latest NBM has a 20 to 50 percent chance for 4" or more snowfall through Tuesday for much of our Nebraska counties, with decreasing probabilities as you move further south into Kansas. The other thing to mention with this system are the winds. While not overly strong, we could see gusts over 35 MPH Sunday into Monday, potentially leading to some blowing and drifting snow. Depending on model solution, some snow could linger into Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 18z GFS with a slight tick eastward from its 12z run through Tuesday AM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 22, 2023 Report Share Posted December 22, 2023 Slight shift to the north on the 18z GEFS mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 18z Euro with a fairly decent shift back to the SE. Snow is still ongoing at the end of the run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 18z Euro. Snow is still falling at 90 hours. I’d take this and run with it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, hawkstwelve said: 18z Euro with a fairly decent shift back to the SE. Snow is still ongoing at the end of the run. You beat me to it by 5 seconds. Thanks for sharing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Hoping models just had a glitch today and shift back southeast about 50 miles. Always have to ride the line! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Jim Flowers video. https://fb.watch/p5Zm9ZBIqZ/?mibextid=cr9u03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 18z EPS mean not all that different from 12z besides a very small bump to the SE. 18z EPS control had a slightly larger shift to the SE as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 NAM pulling out the legit ice storm card for my place. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Trend of the last three RGEM runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 00z ICON is quite a bit further to the SE than previous runs. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 59* tonight and fog forecast for “God’s Country” down south. Feels out of place, but I recall Christmas’s in cutoffs so no snow this year! Merry Christmas fellow nerds. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Every run of the GFS just gets drier for eastern Iowa and points east. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 00z vs 18z GFS. A nice jump for some, especially the southern side of the storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 00z GFS is literally a dream run for central NE, and it looks almost identical to the Christmas 2009 blizzard that stalled and wrapped snow into the area all day. Wow, LOCK THAT IN 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 00z vs 18z CMC. Unfortunately a cut back for some southern Iowa folks but otherwise it's sticking to it's guns with some very heavy totals in NE/SD/MN. Edit: Actually Iowa fills in a bit more Wed-Fri of next week with widespread 3-7 inches. 9+ in W Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: 00z GFS is literally a dream run for central NE, and it looks almost identical to the Christmas 2009 blizzard that stalled and wrapped snow into the area all day. Wow, LOCK THAT IN Yeah it's looking legit for some areas of Nebraska. Hasn't really been discussed as much but the GFS is showing gusts to around 50 mph while heavy snow and ice falls at 6PM on Christmas Day. Not going to be good conditions for any traveling. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 I’ll tell you one thing… Moisture should not be a problem. Been a while since I have seen fog hang around our area for such a long period of time. I was in a dense fog advisory for 24 hours and far eastern Nebraska is in it again tonight. Top off that the sun was out and it got up to 55 degrees today…..hoping for a Christmas surprise! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: 00z GFS is literally a dream run for central NE, and it looks almost identical to the Christmas 2009 blizzard that stalled and wrapped snow into the area all day. Wow, LOCK THAT IN It’s pretty crazy what the gfs is showing tonight….almost identical to that barrel low that came thru in 2009. Jim flowers mentioned it back a couple weeks ago when models were picking up on this storm; it’s called the Fujiwara effect. Retrograde that low inside the main area of low pressure….if far enough west of that low and it could dump some snow. Lots of runs to go but would love to lock this one in. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Ugh... days of models showing 2" of rain here, now it's crapping out. 00z UK 2 1 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Been at the first of many Christmas gatherings this evening over the next 4 days. Could get exciting around here Sunday afternoon then again Monday night to Wednesday for part 2. Should be good moisture and snow. The big question is how much, and then the chances of increasing winds. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Ugh... days of models showing 2" of rain here, now it's crapping out. 00z UK D**n dry air that we are always battling showing its ugly face over you guys out east. Might actually be the wrench in everyone's side I hate to say it....could see the models not picking up on that thus why it's showing the high snowfall forecast over us. Could see QPF fall as we get closer for everyone; otherwise the NWS offices will have to start throwing out watches tomorrow evening. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 0z Euro. Yes please. This would also have wind in Nebraska. Trying to stay calm and not get hopes up. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 6z GEFS. That area from KC back to the SW has been where the highest rainfall totals have been for every storm this season in my area. I'm hoping to see some flakes on the backside after a nice soaker. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 06 Euro. Nice. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 6 hours ago, gabel23 said: D**n dry air that we are always battling showing its ugly face over you guys out east. Might actually be the wrench in everyone's side I hate to say it....could see the models not picking up on that thus why it's showing the high snowfall forecast over us. Could see QPF fall as we get closer for everyone; otherwise the NWS offices will have to start throwing out watches tomorrow evening. You really see it on this morning’s 06 Euro run. It really dropped snow totals for Omaha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Here's the current forecast from EAX. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 06 EPS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 8 hours ago, gabel23 said: It’s pretty crazy what the gfs is showing tonight….almost identical to that barrel low that came thru in 2009. Jim flowers mentioned it back a couple weeks ago when models were picking up on this storm; it’s called the Fujiwara effect. Retrograde that low inside the main area of low pressure….if far enough west of that low and it could dump some snow. Lots of runs to go but would love to lock this one in. I wasn't the only one who was thinking about 2009! Gosh, this storm could be one hellova Fun, Festive storm to track over the Christmas Holiday! Good luck to you and your NE neighbors! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Yesterday, It was the quintessential "Lazy Friday" weather action day. Many local spots in the east side of the valley had over 1" of rain, locally, I got about 1.19" according to the weather app. It was the just what the valley needed and across the state. Down in Tucson they had over 2" of rain. We were baking in the kitchen and preparing food for Christmas while listening to some Christmas carols. As I write, the ULL spin is right overhead...buckle up folks, this one has some Umpfff!!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Sure hope the more westward Euro solution doesn't win out. Nothing but cold rain and ice here. That would be quite the letdown. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 Both the 12z HRRR & NAM with a good track far enough SE that should dump more SN across our members in NE...the LOW tracks up into N MO/S IA...golden location to be on the NW side of the Low. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 23, 2023 Report Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: 06 Euro. Nice. Not for Omaha… would need a 30-40 mile nudge east. However I can see the above actually playing out, would follow climatology for the last three years with dry air and bad thermals winning out. No matter what happens on the cold side of the storm, looking forward to some decent rainfall starting later tonight… 1-2 inches of moisture would be great to see here. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.