January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Money]

This was 18z/0z

 

almost double the snow compared to the previous run 

[jcwxguy]

[uticasnow]

GFS Hr 84

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Complete whiff on the gfs too.

Jumping your way though.  

[Money]

Not surprising but CMC came significantly NW of its 12z run and lines up with the rest of the models 

[Pros3lyte]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

This was 18z/0z

 

almost double the snow compared to the previous run 

lol told ya! Rain gonna mix in and cut into totals for this portion of the state. Like clockwork baby!

[Clinton]

0z CMC for the west half

[winterfreak]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Jumping your way though.  

Yup. If it tracks far enough west the comma head could catch us. 

[uticasnow]

CMS HR 96 (10:1)

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian 24 hours. Whoa. 

[jcwxguy]

i suspect we will see watches issues overnight  tonight

[winterfreak]

That slp track is perfect for a storm here  

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[gabel23]

Holy smokes this really happening?! This is December 2009 and February 2021 wrapped into one if it becomes true!

[NickH4NU]

00 EURO coming in nicely for Omaha and surrounding areas! 

[Money]

Euro 

[NickH4NU]

[Hoosier]

For a visual display of what a dicey storm this is shaping up to be for the Chicago area, here's a look at the 00z Euro 24 hr precip and a loop of 2m temps for that period.  Almost all of this precip happens with temps between 32-34 degrees.

Obviously every degree matters, because temps dropping to 30-31 would make a difference and help to dry out the snow a bit.  That looks unlikely to occur until late in the storm though.  If it does hang around 32 or 33 when all this precip is falling, it's gonna be a mess.

[NickH4NU]

New Winter Storm Watch just issued 

[Money]

NAM stronger/NW

[Money]

Total snowfall..

[Grizzcoat]

Something like the NAM happens here in C.IA going to start having some minor infrastructure issues. Parking lots here are not designed like they are up N etc... Snow load on crappy built structures etc...

But bring it!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Also Wind Chill package by OMX---

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS is N as well-

Going to have some sick totals. I don't even feel comfortable posting them on here.

[Money]

RGEM 

[Grizzcoat]

+SN now in my grids. Nuts..

[Money]

GFS

[Money]

GFS stronger and a tad north than 6z 

[Grizzcoat]

Definitely starting to cut more and sooner---

[Grizzcoat]

DMX wants to see more runs of higher QPF---

A change from the last forecast cycle is that QPF
looks to be increasing, but have tried to temper the jump in QPF
amounts in this cycle to ensure the trend holds.

[Grizzcoat]

Definitely trending NW--- 18Z GEFS yday compared to todays 06Z run 60 and 72 HRs-- stronger and likely why it's cutting more

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GEFS-

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Definitely starting to cut more and sooner---

That's a nice looking map to wake up to.  Glad to see the GFS move NW a little.

[Grizzcoat]

I know it's the long range RAP-- but it really cuts.  (so does the HRRR)

[Clinton]

EAX this morning

he next potential winter storm will begin to affect the area
Thursday night. As a strong shortwave trough will dig into southern
New Mexico/ southwestern Texas Thursday evening, widespread
precipitation should develop in the baroclinic leaf region across
western Nebraska and Kansas. That will spread eastward as the
shortwave moves into the Plains. Strong forcing ahead of the
shortwave will lead to widespread warm advection precipitation
developing that quickly merges with the baroclinic precipitation as
the surface low moves from southwest Oklahoma into southern
Missouri. With surface temperatures expected to be near or above
freezing in our southern/ southeastern zones Thursday evening, rain
and/or rain/snow is expected in that area. The rest of the forecast
area will be all snow given the entirely below freezing thermal
profile. But with the low quickly moving east, temperatures cool
in response and the entire forecast area will transition to snow
by early Friday morning. This intense shortwave pivots to a
negative tilt just south of the forecast area. That enhanced
forcing could lead to a deformation band that potentially sets up
across our south. Subtle variations in this track could greatly
alter the forecast snow amounts. For now, the greatest amounts are
across northern Missouri where a swath of 5+ inches looks
possible. Then, with the potential deformation band, there`s a
swath of 4+ inches in our southeastern zones that increases into
northeastern Missouri. We considered a winter storm watch on this
shift but decided to hold off given the uncertainty in the track
and the lower end criteria snow amounts being forecast

[Clinton]

RAP at hr 51

[Minny_Weather]

Dang, looking like this might make my Friday night drive to Duluth interesting.