January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Hoosier]

Not sure I've ever started a thread here for an upcoming storm, but in the mood for this.  Looks like some good potential from the Plains to the Lakes, and we'll have a better antecedent airmass on the northern end for this one compared to the storm early next week.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS keeps this system further to the south and the CMC agrees.

[tStacsh]

More cold air in place for this one.  That's all I got.  

[bud2380]

It seems that when models at this range show storms missing Iowa to the south they stay that way.  When models show Iowa in the crosshairs at this point though, they almost always shift north.  We have 3 sizable systems coming up, it would be nice if at least one of them gives eastern Iowa something to plow.  

[Hoosier]

Pretty good spread on the 12z GEFS as you'd figure at this range.

[james1976]

There's also a clipper type system right before this storm and then another potential bigger system right after this one. Hello active patten.

[mlgamer]

43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It seems that when models at this range show storms missing Iowa to the south they stay that way.  When models show Iowa in the crosshairs at this point though, they almost always shift north. 

Funny thing...I've always thought that exact same thing living where I do. lol

[Black Hole]

For the first time all winter, there will be abundant cold air to work with. That elongated northwesterly gradient from Canada down to the deep south is great for cold air transport. Plus, with the previous system dropping snow it should help the airmass maintain its bite as it goes south.

 

As was noted, 12z models were a bit further south. Canadian was the best hit for here but the GFS had some too. I  still think we are going to see some substantial model variance with this one as they try to figure out how much cold air to push west of the Rockies versus south. 

I think the coldest was the ICON model. It was pretty nutty with the wind chills. It had most of the snow a ways north of me. 

 

 

[Black Hole]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

Funny thing...I've always thought that exact same thing living where I do. lol

Pretty sure that's true for every location. It never actually snows anywhere it's all just a myth lol

[hawkstwelve]

5 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

For the first time all winter, there will be abundant cold air to work with. That elongated northwesterly gradient from Canada down to the deep south is great for cold air transport. Plus, with the previous system dropping snow it should help the airmass maintain its bite as it goes south.

 

As was noted, 12z models were a bit further south. Canadian was the best hit for here but the GFS had some too. I  still think we are going to see some substantial model variance with this one as they try to figure out how much cold air to push west of the Rockies versus south. 

I think the coldest was the ICON model. It was pretty nutty with the wind chills. It had most of the snow a ways north of me. 

 

 

I was a little surprised to see the ICON remain a bit further north with the parade of systems yet at the same time be among the coldest solutions. It seems those two things would be at odd with each other. The more the cold air can press south, the higher likelihood that the storm track follows it. At least, that's my understanding of how things generally work. Maybe I'm wrong.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:

latest European ensemble probabilities for air temps below zero are already 50-70% for N half of forecast area...and its STILL 7-8+ days away. This is a significant signal for a 50 member ensemble! Furthermore, there is general agreement with the GEFS and GEPS, and global circulations/teleconnections support an Arctic outbreak, as well. This could be potentially significant for livestock producers, the young and the elderly, pet, and particularly poorly insulated buildings...esp. if there is widespread and significant snowpack in place by then. Those sensitive to extreme cold will want to stay up to date on forecasts over the coming week.

[Tom]

This storm track is notorious for producing some of the biggest snowstorms in the MW/Lower Lakes region...I'd pay real attn to this storm track shifting south rather than north given the how deep the -NAO will be and the W NAMER ridge.  I would not be surprised to see our southern members in the mix and this low could dig deep into TX and then cutting NNE towards OH.

 

12z GEFS....

[Black Hole]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was a little surprised to see the ICON remain a bit further north with the parade of systems yet at the same time be among the coldest solutions. It seems those two things would be at odd with each other. The more the cold air can press south, the higher likelihood that the storm track follows it. At least, that's my understanding of how things generally work. Maybe I'm wrong.

I think all else being equal you are right. Though I have noticed here a bit of a propensity for the runs where the base of the trough disconnects more from the trough over Canada to go further south. But by disconnecting they are also warmer since the upper level heights rise. Not really sure if that's a coincidence or not. 

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

This storm track is notorious for producing some of the biggest snowstorms in the MW/Lower Lakes region...I'd pay real attn to this storm track shifting south rather than north given the how deep the -NAO will be and the W NAMER ridge.  I would not be surprised to see our southern members in the mix and this low could dig deep into TX and then cutting NNE towards OH.

 

12z GEFS....

I hope you are right! But with that massive dome of cold high pressure it makes sense to take the under (south) on storm tracks for this round. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro looking like it's going further south with this system as well...

[Tom]

Amazing, the Euro brings the H5 Low right at the same spot as the early week storm...

 

vs....

[hawkstwelve]

Wow... Look at that spot in OK. Two feet of snow drops in six hours...

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wow... Look at that spot in OK...

If the late-week system misses south as well, I'm ready for spring.  This is a huge shift south compared to last run.  All models except for the ICON are south of Iowa this morning.

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wow... Look at that spot in OK. Two feet of snow drops in six hours...

Hey, that's me! 

[hawkstwelve]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

If the late-week system misses south as well, I'm ready for spring.  This is a huge shift south compared to last run.  All models except for the ICON are south of Iowa this morning.

Luckily the following system looks like it may be coming in a bit north of the southern train track. Hopefully not too far north.

[Hoosier]

That's a beautiful run from the Plains to the OV and southern/eastern Lakes.

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS control looks a little better for E IA vs 00z run...

[hawkstwelve]

The system I posted above is more-so a smaller system on Wednesday. The larger system for Thursday/Friday definitely made a sizable shift south on the control.

[Hawkeye]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The system I posted above is more-so a smaller system on Wednesday. The larger system for Thursday/Friday definitely made a sizable shift south on the control.

The potent (but moisture-starved) Wednesday clipper is what ruins the late-week biggie for us.  The clipper pulls the baroclinic zone far to the south.  Iowa needs the clipper to be weaker and/or farther north.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro looking like it's going further south with this system as well...

 

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Amazing, the Euro brings the H5 Low right at the same spot as the early week storm...

 

vs....

 

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I hope you are right! But with that massive dome of cold high pressure it makes sense to take the under (south) on storm tracks for this round. 

Hey guys how much of an effect will the early week storm have on this one in regards to where the baroclinic zone will set up?  Or will the push of artic air make it's own? 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

More cold air in place for this one.  That's all I got.

That one will go to the south of us

[tStacsh]

Just now, westMJim said:

That one will go to the south of us

Seems like the trend for this one.   One will be a slop fest, the next one misses and then another might set the stage for some healthy lake effect/lake enhanced snows.  Sounds about right, because that is the usual.  

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That one will go to the south of us

 

4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Seems like the trend for this one.   One will be a slop fest, the next one misses and then another might set the stage for some healthy lake effect/lake enhanced snows.  Sounds about right, because that is the usual.  

This one was cutting to the Lakes a run or two ago, so plenty of time for changes.

12z GEFS for example... good amount of spread

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

 

Hey guys how much of an effect will the early week storm have on this one in regards to where the baroclinic zone will set up?  Or will the push of artic air make it's own? 

I think it won’t effect it that much and places from KS into OK up thru S MO/IN could be ground zero.  This pattern is not going to budge that much bc of the SER and a ChooChoo train of systems up the OHV is looking likely.

[hawkstwelve]

Posted a little bit about this in the main January thread (so many storms, so many threads!) but thought it was worth a post in here too. While the Euro OP kind of neutered and went a little further south with this storm, the 12z GraphCast looks absolutely beautiful for the Northern Plains. Big improvement over the previous run. This looks like it'd be a blast.

[Hoosier]

Looks like 18z GFS will be farther north to some extent.

[Money]

GFS is a monster

Wow..Iowa crush job 

[hawkstwelve]

Nice northward shift on the 18z GFS for NE/SD/IA folks...

[Hoosier]

This one looks like it will have a much better surface high to play with than the early week system, so gradient winds *could* be a big player even if the surface low doesn't end up quite as deep.  

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice northward shift on the 18z GFS for NE/SD/IA folks...

Whoa. Followed by Arctic Air. 

[bud2380]

LOLOL

[Hawkeye]

18z GFS would be the worst storm ever for Iowa... a slow-moving 976 mb low over northern Missouri dropping a couple feet of snow and producing blizzard wind.  Even half of that snow/wind would be a big storm.

[hawkstwelve]

As outlandish as this run seems with it's totals it actually doesn't look that far off from the GraphCast solution I posted a bit above. It's also similar to previous Euro and EPS Control runs. Excited to watch this one unfold and see where it goes. Could be a biggee. 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings:  

Forecast models are in good agreement that we will get several blasts of cold air that will be the coldest air thus far this season. The first blast will be Thursday into Thursday night with temperatures possibly falling below zero. The secondary blast of cold air over the weekend of Jan 13-14 appears to be even colder and again could also bring some additional snow. Would not be surprised to see a very white landscape with overnight temperatures below zero and perhaps even daytime highs that struggle into the single digits by the Jan 14-15 time frame.

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

18z GFS would be the worst storm ever for Iowa... a slow-moving 976 mb low over northern Missouri dropping a couple feet of snow and producing blizzard wind.  Even half of that snow/wind would be a big storm.

Not sure how great of a comp it actually is overall, but that run sort of reminded me of the Feb 1960 storm with that really deep surface low that maxed in the Plains/western Midwest and moved northeastward to the lakes.  I think that 1960 low was deeper earlier on though.