January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Black Hole]

27 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I have zero faith in any model.  I mean, I know I end up sounding like an a-hole.  But I don't even see the point of watching or posting these things.  Whatever the map says a week away, that is not what is going to happen.  We're 48 hours out from a storm that has been targeting Missouri for a week, and it's about to mosey on up to Nebraska and Iowa instead.  It's really disappointing that there's really no point in any of this.  Putting any stock in any model run, even a couple of days out is the definition of insanity.

I was watching this storm for two weeks only to get rug pulled yesterday, and now its so far north that you are getting screwed too. It's annoying and does make the whole thing feel kind of pointless but I just can't help myself. lol One of these days it'll trend the right way to help instead of hurt. 

[Hoosier]

00z ICON lost the apocalypse bomb.

[Money]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z ICON lost the apocalypse bomb.

0z GFS looks better than 18z IMO so far

[Hoosier]

00z GFS will still have a good one.

[hawkstwelve]

00z ICON may end up being an improvement for northern folks next weekend. Pretty large change from 12z.

[Hoosier]

ICON put quite a bit of emphasis on that smaller Thursday system.  That really seems to be a factor in how big the next system gets.

[Money]

HR 150 GFS 

[Money]

GFS

[jaster220]

0z GFS still has a powerhouse

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

00z ICON looking nice. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEFS slightly NW from 18Z and quite a bit further NW than 12z.

[Clinton]

0z GEFS

[Pros3lyte]

I feel like this one is going to make the slow march northward as well, despite the fresh snowpack.

[winterfreak]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS

Don't do this to me...

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Don't do this to me...

I refuse to share the operational runs until we get through the first one lol.

[Hoosier]

The way that the 00z Euro is handling the weaker Thursday system so far *should* bode well for getting the biggie farther north of the 12z run.

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro is probably going to look closer to the CMC than the GFS. 

[Hawkeye]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The way that the 00z Euro is handling the weaker Thursday system so far *should* bode well for getting the biggie farther north of the 12z run.

The flatter lead wave is necessary, and it's back somewhat this run, but the storm wave also needs to slow down a bit and allow for some better ridging to pop in between the waves.

Edit:  The storm wave just shoots eastward too quickly, can't amp up.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The flatter lead wave is necessary, and it's back this run, but the storm wave also needs to slow down a bit and allow for some better ridging to pop in between the waves.

Edit:  The storm wave just shoots eastward too quickly, can't amp up.

Yeah it does move along.  Still a nice improvement from 12z.

[hawkstwelve]

The differences between last night's 00z Euro run and tonight's run are huge. It's much better for the Central/Northern Plains. That TPV lobe just sits along the spine of the Rockies and fires off constant cycologensis for snow chances on a near daily basis. This winds up not laying down one extremely heavy strip but instead spreads out higher totals over a larger area after the culmination of multiple small(er) systems. 

This aligns pretty closely with the CMC and now the GFS is really standing on its own. 

 

[Money]

A lot of EPS members west of the OP

[Money]

GFS 

[ATW]

17 hours ago, Clinton said:

looks healthy at this range.

We better hope we score some while the cold,air is around. My expectations are low this winter.

[ATW]

12 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

I have zero faith in any model.  I mean, I know I end up sounding like an a-hole.  But I don't even see the point of watching or posting these things.  Whatever the map says a week away, that is not what is going to happen.  We're 48 hours out from a storm that has been targeting Missouri for a week, and it's about to mosey on up to Nebraska and Iowa instead.  It's really disappointing that there's really no point in any of this.  Putting any stock in any model run, even a couple of days out is the definition of insanity.

I know exactly how you feel. I learned to have low expectations and really enjoy when there is the occasional positive surprise. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the storm for Tuesday doesn’t shift slightly back south. There usually seems to be last minute correction to mean. I can’t complain because I’ve been a part of some very good storms from 2018-2022 in Columbia in recent history.

[Clinton]

6z EPS catches some of it.

 

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, ATW said:

We better hope we score some while the cold,air is around. My expectations are low this winter.

I agree 100%

[Black Hole]

Here is a GIF that compares the latest ensemble mean to the 12z runs yesterday for ECMWF/GFS/CMC. The thing I want to draw your attention to is AK. There is still some big uncertainty with that intruding upper level low, which affects the east AK block, which ultimately affects the downstream trough. I don't really know what will happen, and neither do models, or you for that matter lol. We should still expect substantial swings until this settles down. I would think the bigger pictures would settle down within 2-3 days at most, but like we saw with the storm today you can get big swings in the home stretch. 

[Black Hole]

Yesterday's 18z GFS was one of my all time favorites. A massive blizzard on the 12th, with two other respectable systems. But perhaps even bigger was how cold it got, and how long it stayed cold. This kind of thing has only happened a couple of times. 

This mornings GFS run hits us hard still, while the CMC has basically nothing! Spire, ECMWF, and UKMET all have a minor snow event at this time. 

[Money]

Icon is back to a big crush job 

[Money]

Icon 

[Money]

GFS looking more interesting as well..

[Money]

GEM HR 132

[Money]

GEM/GFS 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is sliding the entire western trough eastward too much.  The ICON and GDPS are anchoring the trough over the pacnw, which allows the storm to cut north into the upper midwest.

[Black Hole]

Here are the two ML models that do precip for this storm. The Graphcast is much better for me, while the other would be better further north. Since it never snows here, I am going to go with the further north solution.

[Money]

Track of the low on GFS seems really weird compared to where the 540 line is. 

[Black Hole]

You really can never have too much

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is back to a big hit for Iowa as the long wave trough is held farther west again.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z UK is back to a big hit for Iowa as the long wave trough is held farther west again.

Foreshadowing big brother in an hour or two?