January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Build the Freakin' Glacier!  I'm tickled with Joy to see all my friends on here about to get nailed with systems Galore!  Not only the Snow, but the cold has staying Power.  Buckle up buddy!

I don't see the cold fading before the 20th, lets get some snow and keep it on the ground!

[Tom]

As I opined yesterday, the EPS continues to dig this SLP south...the Polar Vortex and blocking are going to make this a Dream come true for many of You!

 

 

[Black Hole]

Most models are still tracking this one the same path as the last few storms. I think that is unlikely. It should trend south putting my area in the crosshairs. If anything, I could see it tracking too far south given how much cold air is busting south with it. This will definitely be my best chance of something real. 

[Hawkeye]

The 12z ICON going to be much less favorable as it doesn't dig as far west and it ends up trailing the mid-week wave too closely.  For a real big storm, farther north, we need good separation.

[Money]

Icon 

[Money]

Frame before that 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS continues to trend further south. 

 

[Money]

GFS might be suppressed this run

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Money said:

GFS might be suppressed this run

It'll be south, but still great for some.

[Money]

GEM is way north

[Hawkeye]

GFS and GDPS have flipped this morning.  The GFS run is south and east because ridging tries to push into the west coast more than previous runs, which shoves the entire long-wave trough farther east.

[Money]

GEM/GFS

[hawkstwelve]

Ok 12z CMC... I see you...

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, Money said:

GEM/GFS

Was just thinking what a letdown it will feel like overall if this thing turns into a breezy 6-14", like the GEM.  Lol

[Hawkeye]

The UK trend from 00z to 12z is very unfavorable.  We need that big trough to remain anchored over the pacnw.  If ridging pushes into the coast it's going to shove everything eastward and undo a lot of negative tilt.

[Black Hole]

ICON model was the most extreme for me with major cold potential, of course its even worse up north. Most models showing some snow with this wave at this time, with the exception of the CMC.

[StupidFlanders]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

This is the ONE...man, I'm torn bc its my Mothers 77th B Day on the 14th and we just about made plans last night.  Gosh, I wonder what she would say if I said I'll book the flights and fly into Chicago late next week?  LOL, anyway...Ozark Nation is literally ground Zero across MO.  Could you be dreaming???  

 

What days you traveling?

Driving Monday-Tuesday. Then Saturday. 

Hoping for some good snow. We haven't had much out there.

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said:

Driving Monday-Tuesday. Then Saturday. 

Hoping for some good snow. We haven't had much out there.

Tuesday morning may get dicy...good luck with your travels!

[winterfreak]

EURO also way south.

[Money]

Euro doesn’t really have a storm 

[Money]

That second system really screws things up IMO 

Euro has it down to 992 in S WI and it was slower 

[Money]

Here is CMC HR 120..note the clipper system is way weak and north 

 

Here’s euro HR 120. 992 L southern WI. Gfs is sort of in between 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

Here is CMC HR 120..note the clipper system is way weak and north 

 

Here’s euro HR 120. 992 L southern WI. Gfs is sort of in between 

It was a substantial shift in how the Euro handles that day 5 system.  Doesn't automatically mean it's wrong, but more like proceed with caution.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the late-week potential requires a flat/weak lead wave.  A strong, amped wave like the 12z Euro shows will blow the whole thing up.

[bud2380]

Euro shows another system next Saturday/Sunday instead. 

[Hoosier]

12z ICON loop for posterity

[Hoosier]

12z EPS did not bail.  Plenty of very good members.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z EPS did not bail.  Plenty of very good members.

looks healthy at this range.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

looks healthy at this range.

Unlike the last few storms, this would probably be a 15-1 or 20-1 ratio type storm...so these are good numbers. I'll maintain that all else being equal, this one should be further south than the others given the northerly gradient. 

[Hoosier]

Heads up... Pivotal now has the ICON model and there are quite a few model fields to choose from.  

[winterfreak]

There's a model run every hour these days.

[Money]

18z GFS coming in a bit better than 12z for a lot of areas 

[Hoosier]

18z GFS might come a bit north.  Some conflicting things though.

[Money]

HR 150 

[Hoosier]

A bit flatter heights in se Canada, but some changes in our system look like it will override that and result in a net north move.

[Money]

Takes the low into west central Indiana 

majority of the sub does well 

[Money]

GFS

[uticasnow]

11 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS

Lock it in!.  It will only change 100 times between now and then!

[Black Hole]

Oh my. Well, it'll be fun till it goes away the next run. 

[Clinton]

18z GEFS