February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like the 12z tries to develop light snow around puget sound monday evening, more so over kitsap.

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big changes on the 6z ensembles with the second trough.  Considerably further east than 0z runs.  We'll see if that continues on the 12z runs.

Trend has been to shove second trough eastward in the operational runs.   I mentioned this last night.    Sends the action down to CA by late next week.    I like it.  

GFS and GEM show this on the 12Z runs as well.  

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like the 12z tries to develop light snow around puget sound monday evening, more so over kitsap.

Overall a big step back from the 6Z in snow chances next week

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Trend has been to shove second trough eastward in the operational runs.   I mentioned this last night.    Sends the action down to CA by late next week.    I like it.  

GFS and GEM show this on the 12Z runs as well.  

God i hope that is wrong. We need to collect as much snow as possible in this pattern for the mountains. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Overall a big step back from the 6Z in snow chances next week

 

 

And we all know the GFS is way too aggressive with lowland snow anyways.     

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Overall a big step back from the 6Z in snow chances next week

 

 

Yep zero consistency as usual. I will have a bunch of 34 degree snow that accumulates to a couple inches.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

God i hope that is wrong. We need to collect as much snow as possible in this pattern for the mountains. 

Its fine... mountains get plenty before that.     We aren't going to have the pattern hold perfectly for the mountains forever.  

[Phishy Wx]

good grief you dudes are losing it

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And we all know the GFS is way too aggressive with lowland snow anyways.     

I'm way past looking at these snow maps and counting on them, the overall pattern is still ripe for wet snow here at times which is all i can really expect this late.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its fine... mountains get plenty before that.     We aren't going to have the pattern hold perfectly for the mountains forever.  

OK.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm way past looking at these snow maps and counting on them, the overall pattern is still ripe for wet snow here at times which is all i can really expect this late.

Definitely for your location.    You will probably get more snow than me.   I don't see much happening here and whatever does fall won't last long.  

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

good grief you dudes are losing it

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

good grief you dudes are losing it

Its to the point if i even mention snow i have to deal with a bombardment of posts explaining why it wont happen. I'm thinking my backyard and the mountains and it will snow in both places end of story.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely for your location.    You will probably get more snow than me.   I don't see much happening here and whatever does fall won't last long.  

I cant for one reason see how you cant pile up snow in this pattern. Its like you are lower than actual elevation.

[MossMan]

How’s the wind potential looking? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I cant for one reason see how you cant pile up snow in this pattern. Its like you are lower than actual elevation.

Definitely won't pile up here.    There is no cold air east of the mountains.   My area will mix out quickly.   Maybe a little Monday evening but it will be gone by Tuesday and then all rain here.  

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I cant for one reason see how you cant pile up snow in this pattern. Its like you are lower than actual elevation.

Isn't the snow level going to be above 2,000 ft for most of next week? Except late Monday when the precip will be scattered and showery???

[the_convergence_zone]

I honestly can't tell what the GFS is even trying to do on Monday, its resolution is too poor to see the important features. Waiting for the UW-WRF run to finish so I can actually see what's going on. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Isn't the snow level going to be above 2,000 ft for most of next week? Except late Monday when the precip will be scattered and showery???

No, But that depends what model and what run you look at. Snow level will be bouncing all over the place all week from 500ft to 2500. 

[MossMan]

I’m going to stick with the Euro. 

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely for your location.    You will probably get more snow than me.   I don't see much happening here and whatever does fall won't last long.  

Our area along the foothills has really got shafted this winter. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Isn't the snow level going to be above 2,000 ft for most of next week? Except late Monday when the precip will be scattered and showery???

The gfs has about 30hrs next week where the snow level is 2-2500k feet. rest of the time it is between 500-1500.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m going to stick with the Euro. 

You will get snow no problem.

[Slushy Inch]

12z gefs moved trough a solid amount back west. Just hoping for a pscz. A lot of models still showing it. Maybe some lightning and graupel at least.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs has about 30hrs next week where the snow level is 2-2500k feet. rest of the time it is between 500-1500.

GFS is always too aggressive.   Always.     There won't be much snow here next week.   

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

We should be focusing on ensembles, they still look good. The last few OPs have been warm outliers. We can look at high res output for snow chances as we get close to the event. We should start getting snow info for Sun/Mon/Tues on high res soon.

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs has about 30hrs next week where the snow level is 2-2500k feet. rest of the time it is between 500-1500.

I see two periods of low snow level one general period of low snow level...basically overnight Sunday through late Monday. Then back up again for the midweek storm, and then too much uncertainty to know anything about later in the week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m just hoping for a slushy inch. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m just hoping for a slushy inch. 

I think you might get at least a couple slushy inches.   

[the_convergence_zone]

UW-WRF has the central Sound almost completely shadowed on Monday -- westerlies are too strong unfortunately. More likely to need sunglasses than a snow shovel. 

@MossMan gets some action and the mountains do well. 

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We should be focusing on ensembles, they still look good. The last few OPs have been warm outliers. We can look at high res output for snow chances as we get close to the event. We should start getting snow info for Sun/Mon/Tues on high res soon.

For Sunday/Monday period the operational is probably starting to become more relevant at this range. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

For Sunday/Monday period the operational is probably starting to become more relevant at this range. 

Absolutely... and the ensembles only have 10:1 ratio maps which don't apply in this set up.  

[snow_wizard]

The GFS really tries with that second trough.  It shows precip and freezing mins on the same nights, but not a lot of snow.

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

good grief you dudes are losing it

I lost it a long time ago.  This climate drives you to madness eventually.

[snow_wizard]

It actually dropped to 31 here last night.  I was certainly happy to see that at least.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

For Sunday/Monday period the operational is probably starting to become more relevant at this range. 

For trough setup sure. But the details of precip are best left to the high res. 

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How’s the wind potential looking? 

Meh. Breezy. Nothing crazy. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

For trough setup sure. But the details of precip are best left to the high res. 

Yea high res sure. Not ensembles at this range. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It actually dropped to 31 here last night.  I was certainly happy to see that at least.

My first thoughts these days when coming downstairs and seeing the outside temp is either "oh! Jim is happy yay" or "poor Jim"

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Yea high res sure. Not ensembles at this range. 

I was mostly speaking for the second and potential third punch to focus on ensembles. The OP at that range is too variable to know where that trough will set up