3/24-3/27 Midwest/Plains Colorado Low(s)

[Minny_Weather]

Okay, it's pretty certain at this point that this is going to happen and areas that desperately need moisture, are going to receive moisture whether it be rain or snow, so let's get a thread for this.

 

I don't know how long it's been since I've seen a mean this wild on EPS this far out, about 10" over my area of MN and the first wave isn't set to hit for another week!

[hawkstwelve]

Latest NBM definitely painting a consistent picture of the heaviest totals being just north of my area. Although, this is a slight shift south when compared to a few runs ago. 

I'm secretly hoping that we get a huge snowstorm next Sunday/Monday so I don't end up having to fly out to Seattle. It's a long shot, but certainly still possible.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Okay, it's pretty certain at this point that this is going to happen and areas that desperately need moisture, are going to receive moisture whether it be rain or snow, so let's get a thread for this.

 

I don't know how long it's been since I've seen a mean this wild on EPS this far out, about 10" over my area of MN and the first wave isn't set to hit for another week!

Sending + Vibes your way and all your friends in the Upper MW that will welcome this moisture anyway it comes!  Of course, I'm sure many will be busting out the snow magnet.  Good luck bud!

[MIKEKC]

Interesting weather pattern setting up for almost all of us. KC could see all forms of weather, some spring temps, some heavy rain, some sleet, maybe accumulating snow, more freezes. It must be March!!

[hawkstwelve]

Latest ICON looking a bit more "realistic" in it's snow totals, with much less 20+ inch readings. 

A portion of this is due to the neutering of the Thursday clipper but even the Sunday/Monday system is also quite a bit different. Still lots to iron out with this thing.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS continues to go off the rails with totals, showing almost 30 inches here by next Tuesday. At least it's been consistently crazy, I guess?

[hawkstwelve]

Meanwhile, 12z Canadian looks a bit more reasonable.

If a situation like the GFS plays out, that's easily good enough for me to cancel my flight. If it's moreso along the lines of the CMC, it's going to be a tough call. 

C'mon GFS!!

[hawkstwelve]

Fairly decent jump in the total snowfall mean and associated probabilities on the 12z GEFS vs 06z run.

[hawkstwelve]

Probability maps for the 12z CMC ensembles show a notable shift south with the axis of heavier snowfall.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro comparison on top, 12z Euro vs 12z CMC on bottom.

Overall, it continues to look a bit different than the other models on its progression. It keeps the heavier band further north on Sunday/Monday (although it is a shift south from its 00z run) and then comes in with a N/S oriented band on Monday/Tuesday. That secondary band is something that is barely even registering on the 12z CMC.

I'd put the GFS and CMC in one camp, although large differences certainly remain, while the ECMWF is slightly more off on its own. The ICON is somewhere in-between but more closely resembles the GFS/CMC camp. It will be interesting to see how this all progresses over the course of this week and which model will ultimately reign supreme.

[Money]

One of the things I have noticed with 12z runs is euro has some sort of tropical storm on the east coast which forces this storm more north? GFS/Euro/CMC at 168

[Clinton]

CPC's risk of heavy snow

Also great coverage with the 7 day QPF

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS definitely made a move towards the ECMWF solution.

[Minny_Weather]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS definitely made a move towards the ECMWF solution.

I hope it continues that way. A southward trend would be a huge slap in the face to a lot of people in Minnesota.

[hawkstwelve]

Big jump on the 00z ICON. Kinda looks like the 12z GFS.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS moves towards the ECMWF solution while the CMC and ICON move towards the old GFS solution. Just to make things a bit more interesting.

[Minny_Weather]

There are very few ways that the NBM could possibly be better for me when you combine both the Friday clipper and this CO low

[Minny_Weather]

My biggest concern, of course, remains a south trend. That would rob me of some much-needed precip, while a north trend, I believe, would make everyone pretty happy. 

Honestly, if I receive fewer than 10" between the 2 storms, I might consider this a bust.

[hawkstwelve]

Best run yet for the EPS. It continues to look better for here than the ECMWF OP.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Best run yet for the EPS. It continues to look better for here than the ECMWF OP.

That's pretty crazy for an ensemble mean

[Money]

Icon 

[hawkstwelve]

ICON with a jump back to the north on the Sunday/Monday system. 

It's going to end up looking very ECMWF-like with it's solution.

[hawkstwelve]

I always find it very hard to bet against the ECMWF when it is consistent. All the other models have flopped around between the different camps but the ECMWF has been pretty steadfast in its solution. Extremely early indications are it may be right yet again.

[Money]

Check out the difference in the East coast storm on the icon between 12 and 0z

[bud2380]

The current 12z GFS vs. 24 hours ago is much further north with snow.  Just going to have to hope for some heavy rains down here.  

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS says pretty much plain ol rain for Sioux Falls. At least through Sunday night. 

[hawkstwelve]

Exhibit #1 of why I find it incredibly hard to ever trust the GFS. From 22 inches to 2 inches between model runs just 24 hours apart. Meanwhile, the Euro runs which are 24 hours apart have only a difference of a few inches. Some other locations have a slightly larger change but nothing like the GFS. Pretty comical. 

[hawkstwelve]

Of course, then you have something like the CMC which is trying to put the generally outlandish GFS to shame. 

What in the love of God is this? 55 inches?? 30-40+ over a fairly large swath of area?? Huh??

[bud2380]

GFS dramatically cut back on QPF in Iowa as well from just the 00z run.

 

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Of course, then you have something like the CMC which is trying to put the generally outlandish GFS to shame. 

What in the love of God is this? 55 inches?? 30-40+ over a fairly large swath of area?? Huh??

And it's still snowing at this point in the run.   

[hawkstwelve]

That is probably one of the snowiest runs I have ever witnessed for my backyard. Unfortunately, given the other models movement towards the lesser/more north Euro solution, I have to think the CMC is just late to the game and will eventually move that way as well. But I guess you never know!

[hawkstwelve]

That being said, something might be funky with the GFS/ECMWF OP runs. The 12z GEFS mean is an increase over both the 00z and 06z runs and shows 10+ more inches here than the OP run does. This is a similar discrepancy as with the ECMWF/EPS pairing.

Hard to say if it's a resolution problem or something else. Looking at the member low locations, it appears the ensembles haven't fully bought into the secondary, further north low that the OPs are picking up on. Hmmmm...

[bud2380]

Euro

[Minny_Weather]

38 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro

Yeah I love that 33" total over me!

[Minny_Weather]

Okay that explains it... On Euro, snow begins falling on Sunday morning at midnight and doesn't stop until 7am Wednesday morning lol

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Okay that explains it... On Euro, snow begins falling on Sunday morning at midnight and doesn't stop until 7am Wednesday morning lol

Reel it in:..

[bud2380]

EPS Mean

[hawkstwelve]

Definitely a northward shift on the EPS mean. Must be starting to catch up with the OP.

[sholomar]

KELO is always better than your average TV station with their weather modelling. They tend to be more conservative with their estimates for snowfall and tend to be more correct. Here's their say thus far:

https://www.keloland.com/weather/forecast/spring-like-weather-coming-to-an-end-hello-winter-this-weekend/

[james1976]

MPX talking 6-12+ inches if current model trends hold.  Also Thursday night is looking like a 3-6" event.