3/24-3/27 Midwest/Plains Colorado Low(s)

[Beltrami Island]

Looking at last nights GFS I was starting to get interested and think maybe the north trend is going to get me into something worth watching.  I wake up and see the northern trend smashed with a hard northerly cutoff line to my south reappear.  Like living Jan-Feb 2023, watching central and NE Minnesota get crushed while I enjoy the bright clear skies of NW MN.     

[hawkstwelve]

Another nice jump on both the 12z GEFS  and 12z GEPS vs 00z runs.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Very large jump up on the 12z GFS when comparing to the 00z run.

Love seeing that snow cutoff line moving further south. Get that crap away from me!

My word....did the GFS just jump up totals to the wild CMC runs?

[Tom]

37 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another nice jump on both the 12z GEFS  and 12z GEPS vs 00z runs.

15-20"+ for a large swath of the Upper MW is looking highly likely accomanied with strong winds...Blitz in the works!  Knocking on your doorstep bud...and for @Minny_Weather

 

[Tom]

To add farther, the snow ratios will probably be higher than norms during a late March calendar period....this will also add to the accumulations...what a beauty shaping up.

[hawkstwelve]

12z ECMWF vs 00z run.

[Hawkeye]

Ugh.... the big storm has totally dried up for eastern Iowa.  The latest Euro has dropped from 2-3" to almost nothing.  Unreal.

[Minny_Weather]

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

15-20"+ for a large swath of the Upper MW is looking highly likely accomanied with strong winds...Blitz in the works!  Knocking on your doorstep bud...and for @Minny_Weather

 

Dangerously close to not being good for me, though. Definitely need to see a slight tick North.

 

Euro is great for me. I'll take that 14" it gives me and run with it.

[Black Hole]

CSU outlook is similar to the SPC showing a severe risk for this part of the country Sunday to Monday. I do think there may be a bit of a minima here with more dry line convection west of here on Sunday and then a reinvigoration Monday SE of here. It'll be interesting to see though. 

[bud2380]

57 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Ugh.... the big storm has totally dried up for eastern Iowa.  The latest Euro has dropped from 2-3" to almost nothing.  Unreal.

That's unreal.  

 

On the plus side the Euro shows 6" of snow tonight for Cedar Rapids! LOL.

 

[hawkstwelve]

At this point, I'll take these odds...

 

[hawkstwelve]

Not the best trends on the ICON. Moving north and less precip.

 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS looking pretty dang close to the 12z run.

[james1976]

Pretty incredible. MPX is already calling for "over a foot likely." And TWC has 18-24" nudging into the Twin Cities. 

And tonight I'm in an advisory for 3-6"

[Minny_Weather]

23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Pretty incredible. MPX is already calling for "over a foot likely." And TWC has 18-24" nudging into the Twin Cities. 

And tonight I'm in an advisory for 3-6"

A slight shift North would be nice. I'm not sure I want to settle for less than a foot in late March. 

But yeah, this is set to be amazing.

[hawkstwelve]

34 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

A slight shift North would be nice. I'm not sure I want to settle for less than a foot in late March. 

But yeah, this is set to be amazing.

18z Euro shifted north a decent bit. From 12 inches to 5 inches for Sioux Falls.

It'd be nice to have a middle ground but I feel like I'll be riding the edge of this thing pretty closely. Big time boom/bust potential for here. I'd much rather be in your spot where you either get a lot of snow or a ton of snow.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro shifted north a decent bit. From 12 inches to 5 inches for Sioux Falls.

It'd be nice to have a middle ground but I feel like I'll be riding the edge of this thing pretty closely. Big time boom/bust potential for here. I'd much rather be in your spot where you either get a lot of snow or a ton of snow.

Guessing the lower max totals are going to continue as well as a result of better sampling.

 

Edit: I'm stupid and didn't realize this run ends in the middle of the storm.

[hawkstwelve]

NWS FSD showing Sioux Falls as anywhere between 5-19 inches. 

 

[sholomar]

"Be glad if it's less" says the normies.   I hope we get 24 inches.

[hawkstwelve]

Some contracting on the 00z CMC. 

[hawkstwelve]

Same thing on the 00z GFS.

[sholomar]

NOAA prediction

[Clinton]

Models showing hardly any precip in my area with most showing under a 1/4 inch.

[Up_north_MI]

3rd weekend in a row getting a ground covering snowfall, really would have preferred this back in January or February. I’m ready to turn the page to spring.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty large cutback on totals here from the overnight runs. Looks like the latest NWS graphic reflects that. From "plan for" 13 inches and a floor of 5 inches to now only expecting 3-8. Winter Storm Watch starts at the county just to my north. 

Is this the usual rug pull 48-72 hours out? Or just a blip? Time will tell...

[Madtown]

this thing is only gonna trend down for most

[hawkstwelve]

06z Euro with a GFS-level joke. From 17.5 inches on yesterday's 12z to 2 inches on the 06z. Oof...

 

[MIKEKC]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Models showing hardly any precip in my area with most showing under a 1/4 inch.

YEP! Not looking good for us, is it? We got a gully washer last Wednesday evening, but, it came so fast that most ran off. Very dry air masses after that caused that to dry up by the weekend. Our moderate drought looks to continue. The storms next week look good at times but now appears to be hit and miss for our area again. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Where and when the changeover occurs will make all the difference. I’m between 4” and 22”. Should be quite a nowcast event. Winds forecasted to over 50 mph. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

11 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

YEP! Not looking good for us, is it? We got a gully washer last Wednesday evening, but, it came so fast that most ran off. Very dry air masses after that caused that to dry up by the weekend. Our moderate drought looks to continue. The storms next week look good at times but now appears to be hit and miss for our area again. 

Whats a gully  washer?  Never seen such a long  period of time with almost zero heavy precip. Odd that my heaviest  precip in months was 2.7" over  a 120 hr period that was all snow!  But never heavy snow.  Just moderate for 66 hrs.  I bet I haven't  had 45 minutes of heavy rain since Sept 2022. Almost all  ponds  and many streams remain dry or extremely  low. And thats with a fairly  wet winter since dec 15th!

[CentralNebWeather]

This would be fun with 50-60 mph predicted winds. 

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

This has quickly turned into a maybe 2-5 inch event here. Maybe a bit more depending on how the wraparound hits us Monday night, which I'll be gone for. Overall still decent for late March but nothing even remotely like what was shown. As currently modeled, my county is the dividing line between mostly rain and heavy snow. That can lend itself to some surprises but the models do not inspire a lot of confidence at the moment.

[jcwxguy]

[james1976]

If I could get rid of the changeover to rain on Monday I'd be golden. Still looking like heavy snow Sunday with 6 inches or more likely.

[Minny_Weather]

Liking the look of the SREF plume. It's lacking the couple of wacky ceiling outliers that we usually see from this, but the mean for here is still 14.5".

[CentralNebWeather]

06 ICON. 

[gabel23]

Things could get interesting around here… Models seem to start showing a heavy band setting up somewhere over Central Nebraska then making its way east..

[CentralNebWeather]

11 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Things could get interesting around here… Models seem to start showing a heavy band setting up somewhere over Central Nebraska then making its way east..

I think we’ll like the 12z ICON 

[MinnesotaSnow]

Not loving the trends on the NAM for the metro. I’m happy to get precipitation in any form, but painfully close to staying all snow.