3/24-3/27 Midwest/Plains Colorado Low(s)

[sholomar]

KELOLAND being more optimistic regarding getting both waves in the last hour... a "disruptive" storm.. more for Brookings to Sisseton and east into Central MN.  More moisture in general is good for this area regardless how it falls.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

23 minutes ago, sholomar said:

KELOLAND being more optimistic regarding getting both waves in the last hour... a "disruptive" storm.. more for Brookings to Sisseton and east into Central MN.  More moisture in general is good for this area regardless how it falls.

 

 

Mirrors op Euro almost exactly. This would be the most memorable storm I've ever been in, and it wouldn't even be close (Feb 2019 in Nebraska is currently 1st), if this came to life.

[Minny_Weather]

The pro/con to living on the edge of 3 different CWAs? 3 different AFDs to look at.

 

MPX:

Quote

There is an increasing chance a much more impactful system will
affect the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into late Monday or
Tuesday. A deep trough over the West Coast with an incredible
150-175 kt upper jet rounding the base of that trough will come
ashore the northern Baja and Arizona Saturday night. A deep,
strong low level southerly flow will transport 0.75-1.0 inch
pwats northward to Iowa by Sunday. Broad upper lift will result
in widespread precip development well north of the surface
system (at this point in southeastern Colorado). The forecast
area being at the nose of a 50+ kt LLJ Sunday would position us
in the crosshairs for heavy precipitation. Cold easterly
surface flow should keep it frozen at least through Sunday
night. Several inches of snow (6-12+) are quite likely should
this evolve as currently being portrayed by early Monday. Model
consistency drops off quite a bit early next week with how
quickly the surface low lifts north across the region. Ensemble
spread is very large. The slower solutions are the heavier ones,
as one would expect. Lateral track differences are also evident,
with some solutions bringing the surface low into MN and
transitioning precip to steady rain or a rain/snow mix Monday
and Tuesday. Others keep it east over WI and continue to hammer
us with heavy snow. It`s just too early to tell which is more
likely at this point and it will take a few more days to nail
this down with any great confidence. However, after the benign
winter and how dry it`s been (MSP is now experiencing their
second longest stretch ever with less than 0.01"), this system
could bring major impacts to the region for a prolonged period.

 

FGF is pessimistic, but a significant chunk of their CWA encompasses areas that were never gonna get hit hard by this storm:

Quote

Nearly all ensemble guidance continues to bring a significant
late winter system into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Sunday into Monday. This lends confidence likely impacts from
this system. However, there remains notable uncertainty in
location, timing, and coverage of impacts.

Should the system move into the Plains weaker with a less
amplified trough/ridge wave pattern, most precipitation would
favor a track from South Dakota into central Minnesota, largely
bypassing our area resulting in lowered impacts from gusty
winds acting upon recently received snow from Thursday, which
may still result in blowing and drifting snow impacts.

Should the system move into the Plains stronger with a more
amplified trough/ridge wave pattern, precipitation mostly in the
form of snow would envelop a large portion of our area. This
would result in high impacts from accumulating snowfall over 6
inches and gusty winds producing blowing and drifting snow. In
fact, this scenario holds a 50% chance in exceeding 12 inches of
snowfall in portions of southeast North Dakota into Minnesota.

With this second scenario still plausible, there remains around
a 40% chance of warning- type impacts from heavy snow and
blowing/drifting snow. There still remains notable uncertainty
in location, timing, and coverage of impacts.

 

ABR:

Quote

There appears to be a break with snowfall Friday through Friday
night before the next storm system moves into the region for the
weekend. There is reasonable agreement among models with the
evolution of a Spring snowstorm impacting much of the region this
weekend and perhaps into early next week. The storm system may begin
on Saturday with light, accumulation snowfall, with more intense
rates Saturday night through Sunday night. There is a slight nudge
southward with the heaviest pcpn, now mostly in southern ND and
across much of South Dakota. While snowfall amounts are unknown,
there is a potential for significant, heavy snowfall, with the grand
ensemble showing a 5 to 15 percent chance of 10 inches or more of
snow in a 24 hour period, ending at 6Z Monday. Precipitation may
continue through Monday, with a gradual diminish from west to east
Monday night throug Tuesday.

 

[hawkstwelve]

EPS is moving in the wrong direction for here.

[Minny_Weather]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

EPS is moving in the wrong direction for here.

It does suck that it's impossible for both you and I to get good snow accumulations it seems. At least you'll be getting good moisture regardless.

[CentralNebWeather]

My latest forecast- 1-3” Saturday morning, Rain and thunderstorms Saturday night (prom here), rain Sunday, 1-3” Sunday night, 1-3” Monday with wind, 1” Monday night. Let’s see how often this changes in the next 4 days. 

[james1976]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

EPS is moving in the wrong direction for here.

That's a big jump north, even for here in the TC. Still a few days out. And hey, it's officially Spring in an hour anyway. Lol

[hawkstwelve]

The normally conservative NBM looks pretty dang good. Keeps increasing.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS with a pretty large shift north vs 18z with the placement of the secondary low. CMC a lesser shift north but still a shift, and still going crazy with totals. The total QPF it's showing is... Wow. It's enough for more than March and April's average precip combined. Even the other models have shown lesser but still appreciable numbers in the 2-4 inch range.

This storm could end up packing quite a punch wherever it ends up. 

[Minny_Weather]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS with a pretty large shift north vs 18z with the placement of the secondary low. CMC a lesser shift north but still a shift, and still going crazy with totals. The total QPF it's showing is... Wow. It's enough for more than March and April's average precip combined. Even the other models have shown lesser but still appreciable numbers in the 2-4 inch range.

This storm could end up packing quite a punch wherever it ends up. 

44.3" over my house on GEM 

[Tom]

I'm rooting for a Historic Spring Storm for you guys up there.... @Minny_Weather, this storm would make up for all the horrible winters you experienced living in Fargo and now Minnesota.  Even though its coming at a time of the year where you would rather not have it snow, but nevertheless, it'll be fun watching it snow for a few days (3-4) while the temps are cold and provide a fluffier variety instead of the wet stuff.  Good luck man!

[Andie]

59*. Early clouds. We need rain. 
We’ll see 70.* today.  Perfecto!

 

[hawkstwelve]

Nasty trends on the ICON. Further and further north, which means more and more rain for here.

While I'm happy to get the QPF, it would be an awful waste of such a promising setup to have it all fall as rain. If this is close to the actual solution (which at this range, is not particularly likely) our best bet here is when the low passes into Iowa and we get into the NW quadrant. That does help fill things in a smidge more.

 

[GDR]

Gfs moving north also now

[bud2380]

Canadian is better further south, probably just late to the party.  The GFS has become very dry for Iowa compared to previous runs.  Only about a half inch for Iowa City/CR compared to 2-3" previous days.

GDPS like I said is better, but I am not trusting this solution.

 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Canadian getting crappier here too. Now shows almost 3 inches of sleet and 0.12 of freezing rain. We still get hit on the backside NW quadrant but overall not good trends for here on this AM's model runs. Luckily still plenty of time for things to shift around a bit more. It wouldn't take much adjustment to get us back into business.

As it stands right now, the low pressure complex is still out over the ocean and won't be joined together over the West Coast until late Friday night. We should get better sampling at that point and models should hone in on a more clear solution.

[james1976]

Might end up being a Bismarck special yet

[james1976]

GFS is way north. Tracks the low NW of the TC.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah... Ptype is now officially an issue.

[MinnesotaSnow]

I want snow, but I’ll be happy with 1.5”+ of precipitation no matter the form. 

[macminey2]

From DSM discussion regarding north / south solutions, that line about thunder is intriguing.  Either way, I hope we all get in on some lucky thundersnow.

...The EC is slower with more emphasis on the southern stream of the trough, while the GFS has a more northern stream influence, ejecting the surface wave nearly 18 hours faster. These model differences result in low confidence in details, and precipitation types could change several times from snow initially, over to rain as warming continues, and then back to snow again as system exits. Some thunder is anticipated as well..

DSM discussion 1243 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS stopped the slide and actually re-increased totals compared to 00z run.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice shift back to the SE on the 18z ICON. Just need one more of these and Sioux Falls is back in play.

 

[Hawkeye]

A few days ago the Euro/GFS were dropping 2-3+ inches of precip here.  Now, the front is expected to stall much farther nw and the low will track along it, leaving southeast Iowa with much less rain.  Every good system we end up hoping we can just squeeze a half inch out of it.  We need inches of rain, but we can't get it.

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

A few days ago the Euro/GFS were dropping 2-3+ inches of precip here.  Now, the front is expected to stall much farther nw and the low will track along it, leaving southeast Iowa with much less rain.  Every good system we end up hoping we can just squeeze a half inch out of it.  We need inches of rain, but we can't get it.

Its gonna take a 10 day period of 4 plus inches.  Or better yet a month with 6, 7 or more inches. Unfortunately   with each passing  yr  that seems like a utopia  here.   My last well above avg month of precip  was Sept 2021. With a exception  of Jan 2024 which was mostly  snow. Runoff? Whats runoff?

[CentralNebWeather]

My latest forecast: rain overnight Saturday, thunderstorms Sunday, rain to snow Sunday night into Monday (watching potential winter storm). It will depend on where the band sets up on the back side of the low. Models keep moving it around. There is potential of a heavy amount right through my area or just west. May not know until Sunday night. Looks like good moisture in almost all models. 

[Andie]

North Texas will have intermittent showers through the day then steadier rain by evening.  
High 66*. 
Sounds great.  An improving spring.  

[Clinton]

Models have been trending down on rainfall in mby.

18z EC for the clipper

Weekend storm

Total QPF

[james1976]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Models have been trending down on rainfall in mby.

18z EC for the clipper

Weekend storm

Total QPF

That 13.0 is close to mby up here in the TC. We'll see! Local mets are all about heavy snow on Sunday and changing to rain Monday.

[hawkstwelve]

ICON continues its improvement with a shift south.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS also with some SSE shifts. Still shows quite a bit of rain here but it's moving in a good direction.

 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, james1976 said:

That 13.0 is close to mby up here in the TC. We'll see! Local mets are all about heavy snow on Sunday and changing to rain Monday.

0z run moves the storm along a little faster and has a brief change over to rain for the Twin Cities and has some very lofty totals

[Minny_Weather]

06Z GFS goes back to being a bit too far south for my liking. Still gives me a foot, but I get the feeling that this thing is going to lose some moisture in future runs once we get samples of it.

[gimmesnow]

Woke up to a wwa about 4-8 in se wi for Friday, wtf.

I still have a few days to get to granite peak. Crazy to think there's some good snow possibly up there. Even if they got back side rain, 8 inches before that sounds like really good conditions for late spring ski and board.

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro, 06z ICON, and 06z GFS are all showing about 20 inches here now. Lock it in!!

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z run moves the storm along a little faster and has a brief change over to rain for the Twin Cities and has some very lofty totals

@Minny_Weather, is looking a lot better today after a bit of step back the other day...EPS keeps the 850's largely sub -5C

[hawkstwelve]

Nice improvements on the NBM since the 00z run. An initial shift south and then increasing totals pretty much across the board.

[Madtown]

was getting excited for this, but the now Monday Tues rain over this way...gonna be a real slop fest. At least it's moisture!

[hawkstwelve]

Nice improvement on the 12z CMC. Back up to crazy numbers again. 

[hawkstwelve]

Very large jump up on the 12z GFS when comparing to the 00z run.

Love seeing that snow cutoff line moving further south. Get that crap away from me!