Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Clipper according to the 4km NAM. Looks good, I'll take it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 HR 114: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Big difference so far is the cold air is much farther south in Canada than 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 You can see the drastic differences here in the parallel GFS 18z HR 132 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111718/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.png 0z HR 126: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Getting closer....and the southern SLP is farther east into Arkansas... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Check out the 540 line: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png 18z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111718/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png Also check out the HP right above the storm in ND compare it to 18z. Very good trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 OK....I havent been on much today. How many systems are we tracking???? LOL. Seems like there is a lot going on. I'm ready to dig in.BTW.....Waterloo set a record low max today at 15. Prolly a record low tonight and another record low max tomorrow. Unbelievable. Its so January-like out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Another low developing down in OK with the cold air approaching fast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Well, that sucked http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png to http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 and I have no idea what the OP GFS is doing... 988 L in MN and 988 L in MI with a 1004 L down in OK/KS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 How about we throw that one out? lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 GGEM at HR 144 has a 996 L in Ohio and a 997 L in Minny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'm lost. Are we trying to see if these systems phase or whats going on? I'm not seeing where the excitement is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Some ensembles looked interesting, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'm lost. Are we trying to see if these systems phase or whats going on? I'm not seeing where the excitement is. idk yet. Euro was showing a 973 L over GB at HR 168 on the 12z run. There is a lot of parts though and I think it's screwing with the models right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I honestly don't think I ever seen two strong low pressure systems right along side each other like the OP GFS is showing (988 over Chicago) and 988 in Minny. I might be wrong on that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Ukie looks like the 12z Euro. 979 in S. WI. Looks REALLY cold as well http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 GFS smoking the wacky tobacky...that model doesn't have the fire power like the Euro. Euro seems to do really well with dynamic systems as such. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tom, how does the Ukie look? lol I wonder if the progressive bias the GFS has is leading to it's weird solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tom, how does the Ukie look? lol I wonder if the progressive bias the GFS has is leading to it's weird solution. Bingo, thats exactly what it is....Wow, Ukie showing a pretty picture...a bit too far west and north though for my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Bingo, thats exactly what it is....Wow, Ukie showing a pretty picture...a bit too far west and north though for my area. Looks colder than the euro too. If we can get this thing to occlude and bring in wrap around snows like the 12z euro showed, I think someone might have a nice little storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Although, it's hard to see where the ukie started from. Here is HR 120: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif No LP at all to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Ukie looks like the 12z Euro. 979 in S. WI. Looks REALLY cold as well http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gifThat would destroy me.....if the temps are cold enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 idk yet. Euro was showing a 973 L over GB at HR 168 on the 12z run. There is a lot of parts though and I think it's screwing with the models right now. Yeah, might as well throw darts on a Midwest map right now lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Doesn't make much sense seeing two strong low pressures right in the same neighborhood. GFS is wacky tonight. lol Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 One GGEM ensemble gets the L down to 964 in N. WI.... Most of the others look like OP or look really wacky (one had 4 LP systems all right next to each other) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Euro is huge again. 980 L over southern LM at HR 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Baby steps...984MB SLP right over Chicago @ 144 HR> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Much farther SE than last nights 00z run and todays 12z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Still too warm and doesn't tap into the colder air.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Guessing there is a couple bigger GEFS members. Here is the mean: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014111800/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_25.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014111800/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_26.png 24 HR precip: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014111800/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Still too warm and doesn't tap into the colder air.... I think once it occludes there will be some nice wrap around snows for a lot of people. Especially if it's as strong as the euro/ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 If it can slow down some more, then it will have time to phase with northern stream. I noticed that has been slowly down the last couple runs. Check out the run from 2 nights ago...slower solution, farther south and colder.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tom, if you could post the maps once they are ava that would be awesome. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 A monster in the making...only if it can phases earlier in the southern Plains. Wrap around snows start in the Dakotas down into MO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 00z Euro snowfall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I like the wrap around snows from ND/SD/IA/IL. Don't see that too often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I went ahead and started a thread for this storm system... I like the wrap around snows from ND/SD/IA/IL. Don't see that too often.Last time I saw a system this close was Christmas Eve 2010 I believe that buried the Plains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 OMG, 00z Euro showing a Barbaric 1052mb HP heading down the leeward side of the Rockies on Thanksgiving Day with some snows breaking out in KS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Watch out for another lead system that tugs down this next brutal shot of cold. 00z Euro showing signs of another repeat system we saw that hit the Northwoods last week, this time it could be farther south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 1052 H moving in again at HR 240 with -20 to -25 850 MB temps widespread. Insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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