November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The new JMA weeklies are in and the model still shows a pretty good trough for the central CONUS Day 10-16 but then the battle begins for Week 3 & 4.  We saw this battle in the longer range about 2 weeks ago and the cold won.  Let's see if this is going to be a repetitive pattern like we saw last year OR if this may be a period where nature reloads the cold up north.  I remember last year there was a period in early December that wasn't that cold but then it hit and never let go.

 

With a new period of SSW taking place over North America, I'm inclined to say that we better watch out for the cold to win.

 

 

[Tom]

Late next week still looking very interesting on the GFS

That system is also showing up on the Euro coming in out of the southern Plains...

[Tom]

Just got back from lunch at Bob Chins and today is one of those days that starts putting you in the Holiday mood.  Temps in upper 20's, overcast skies with embedded snow showers.  Love it.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif check this out lol

[WildWisconsinWeather]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif check this out lol

 

 

What about it?  It's not like we're going to go from bitter cold to warmth in the space of a week.  It was always going to be a 'relative' warm up (40s instead of 20s and 30s for highs).

[james1976]

Long range GFS is starting to look warmer, which doesnt surprise me. Cant stay this far below normal all the time. I just hope IF that Thanksgiving storm happens that it will be cold enough for snow. Nothing worse than rain storms this time of year.

[GDR]

Accuweather is showing mid 50's for thanksgiving in northern iowa

[centralweather44]

Yes. Local mets saying warm up here as well. Saying could have us a mild thanksgiving holiday. Should be interesting to see.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Long range GFS is starting to look warmer, which doesnt surprise me. Cant stay this far below normal all the time. I just hope IF that Thanksgiving storm happens that it will be cold enough for snow. Nothing worse than rain storms this time of year.

 

Majority of the GFS Ensembles are still indicating a warm storm for most, but a ton of moisture, certainly a chance it trends colder as it gets closer.

[GDR]

Yeah I think we could be looking at severe storms from Des moines to Chicago and eastward!

[Geos]

Except for a short time period in the warm sector of that long range storm, it looks to stay below normal around here. 18z GFS was showing 30s for highs closer to the Lakes on Thanksgiving Day. Pretty typical for the last week of the month.

 

Only 30° for a high today, which is about the average on Christmas Day!

[james1976]

Currently 13 degrees with light snow! Cant believe this weather we have for Nov 13th. Got a dusting of snow this evening. Been cloudy with snowshowers since Tuesday. Highest it has made it is mid 20s.

[Tom]

It's been at or below 32F here since about Tuesday at 10pm and doesn't look to pop above freezing till maybe Thursday next week according to Skillings 7Day.  That is remarkable to do with no snow cover, even if we get a couple inches this weekend.

 

BTW, 00z GFS showing hints of another shot of cold next Friday-Sunday.

[Money]

I don't see any sustained warm up at all on the 0z GFS. There was a couple days where it got to 35 or so but that was about it. Showing a couple storm systems with some snow as well.

[Tom]

00z GFS does show a zonal flow for a period but not as warm as one would think.  I think the reason we won't get too warm is the WPO is forecast to stay negative and if it does so, the cold will fight back.  This is one of the lessons we learned last year from the WPO staying negative and AO near neutral to positive territory in Nov/Dec.

 

Check out the daily indecies from Nov 14 - Dec 19th 2013...mainly positive and we were below normal for the most part.  

 

2013 11 14 0.589
2013 11 15 0.664
2013 11 16 0.559
2013 11 17 0.227
2013 11 18 -0.171
2013 11 19 -0.065
2013 11 20 -0.119
2013 11 21 -0.829
2013 11 22 -1.087
2013 11 23 -0.595
2013 11 24 -0.335
2013 11 25 -0.101
2013 11 26 0.208
2013 11 27 -0.050
2013 11 28 -0.399
2013 11 29 -0.162
2013 11 30 0.451
2013 12 1 1.088
2013 12 2 1.478
2013 12 3 1.196
2013 12 4 1.064
2013 12 5 1.101
2013 12 6 0.968
2013 12 7 0.612
2013 12 8 0.128
2013 12 9 0.278
2013 12 10 0.273
2013 12 11 0.334
2013 12 12 0.339
2013 12 13 0.470
2013 12 14 0.828
2013 12 15 0.719
2013 12 16 0.504
2013 12 17 0.308
2013 12 18 0.124
2013 12 19 0.059

[Snowshoe]

This is crazy!

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/content/snowfall-reaches-4-feet-northwestern-wisconsin-community

[Tom]

Ouch!  These temps should break some record low highs for Mon & Tue and record lows at night!

[Tom]

Hello Polar Vortex # 2!  Right near Lake Superior...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This is crazy!

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/content/snowfall-reaches-4-feet-northwestern-wisconsin-community

 

Thanks for this find!  I have an old friend from the Milwaukee area who lives in Hurley, visited him last summer (2013).  Did visit the surrounding towns with him briefly, like Montreal (not Gile though).  It takes some guile (pun intended) to live there I think.  Would be cool to have this much snow when it's barely mid November.  Some places up there and in the UP may not get above freezing until March or April.

[Geos]

Were really going to go down early next week for lows. Little bit of snow on the ground is going to make a difference. Backyard pond is mostly frozen over this morning!

[Iowawx]

Euro shows a large storm on the 24th, but the run stops at where the storm is just starting here in the Midwest.

[Geos]

10 day snowfall off the parallel GFS.

 

 

[Tom]

Ominous looking 500mb pattern shaping up for the 25th on the 12z Euro ensembles.  With a ridge off the east coast and west coast, this would create a big trough in the central CONUS.  There is some agreement amongst the ensemble members to heighten the ridge up thru NW NAMER (albeit very minimal right now) what to watch out for is for the ridge to hook up over the top and you got yourself more supply of arctic air to funnel into this system.  Notice the blues south of the north pole near the Archipelago region (Polar Vortex) and if that trough can connect down towards the lower 48 in future runs...Bingo.  A lot of variables still need to be ironed out but the way the ensembles have been handling it as of late point towards a wintry system. 

[Tom]

The expected warm that was supposed to start next Friday is being pushed back now to Sunday on the 12z Euro.  Now, the warmth being advertised is being relative to the extreme cold we have seen over the past week.  Having said that, temps that are showing up on the models still look to be near average or slightly below.  We'll see how much of a warm up indeed takes place but what I'm seeing is a repeating pattern developing in the models that tend to over do the warm ups in the longer range.

[Tom]

Notice the trends of the last runs of the AO from the Euro model and how the model is seeing more blocking near the arctic for a little longer period.  It's still trying to bring it to neutral, but its dragging it out farther from happening.

[Tony]

I have always gone with the un-scientific method of "Cold Breeds Cold" and no reason for me to change my thinking. I agree with Tom that as each day passes the supposed warmth in the extended will continue to fade away.

 

The Thanksgiving storm will be a doozy for whoever ends up with the brunt of it. I am still thinking it will be in the center of the country and not the east coast.

[Tom]

Only made it to 27F at ORD and another sub 30F day, it was only forecasted to hit 30F...with the new snows coming this weekend and an even healthier and more direct shot of cold coming Mon/Tue...I think low 20's are a sure bet around here with a snow cover expanding farther south.  Expect some record low temps to be broken in the region early next week.

[james1976]

Local met says we will struggle to reach 20 for a high mon-tue and tue morning teens below zero for wind chills.

[clintbeed1993]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/  Explain to me how in the hell Central Nebraska escapes without an advisory when literally every surrounding area has one.  That just doesn't seem possible.

[james1976]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/  Explain to me how in the hell Central Nebraska escapes without an advisory when literally every surrounding area has one.  That just doesn't seem possible.

Prolly cuz the storm doesnt develop enough in your area. Phases a bit east of you.

[CentralNebWeather]

For those who don't know about our missing of storms, that map says it all.

[gabel23]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/  Explain to me how in the hell Central Nebraska escapes without an advisory when literally every surrounding area has one.  That just doesn't seem possible.

My grid is still calling for 1-3", the same amount as a county to my north, south and east and they are in the wwa. I would say everyone in the cwa will see 1-3" for the most part.

[clintbeed1993]

Kearney is saying only up to 1 inch.  That's not even worth it tbh.  I would trade this brutal cold for 60's if it only yields a measly inch.

[clintbeed1993]

RAP is pretty terrible for the entire state unless you live near the South Dakota border.

[Maxim]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/  Explain to me how in the hell Central Nebraska escapes without an advisory when literally every surrounding area has one.  That just doesn't seem possible.

lol'd at that

[winterfreak]

I remember the Feb blizzard of 2011. TWC had Jim Cantore, Slidell ect stationed all over NE. WSW and BW everywhere. Storm proceeded to bust big time up there and Cantore/Slidell were on the next flight to KC, where it promotly dumped. I felt so bad then and now I just can't imagine how you NE guys have felt every winter, hell, even spring and summer, since. Hope this event isn't foreshadowing for the rest of winter. Here's to all of NE getting blasted this winter!

[Geos]

Down to 17° here already and it's only quarter to 10!

[Tom]

00z GFS tanking temps next Thursday and siding with the 12z Euro with high temps in the low 20's.  Big difference from its 18z run...the reason why is the storm in the GOA is farther west towards the Aleutian Islands that pumps the ridge and therefor creates a downstream trough that is deeper and farther west this run.  This was the issue the models battled with back in late October/early November.

 

Now the GFS is bringing back another potential snow maker next Fri/Sat...something to watch down the road.

[Tom]

Down to 17° here already and it's only quarter to 10!

If you can get some decent snow tomorrow, single digit lows Mon/Tue are on the table for your area.

 

 

James may even see close to subzero readings!

[Geos]

If you can get some decent snow tomorrow, single digit lows Mon/Tue are on the table for your area.

 

 

James may even see close to subzero readings!

 

I don't think that will be challenge with a little snow on the ground. 15.8° here right now. Already 14° at BUU. Impressive with no snow in the immediate area.