December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

00z GGEM also showing a decent snow cover to close out December.  It would be characteristic for Mother Nature to close the year off in this fashion as it has been a very cold year overall in the U.S.  If you look globally, North America has been the coldest part of the world.

[Money]

On January 8th, the GFS shows a huge storm moving across Nebraska and Iowa. Hopefully things won't change!

 

lol, pathetic. 

[centralweather44]

On January 8th, the GFS shows a huge storm moving across Nebraska and Iowa. Hopefully things won't change!

I hope you are kidding. If you mean won't change as to hitting South Dakota and Wyomind head on this yes, I hope it won't change either.NW shift seems to be king this year.

[Tom]

00z Euro looking colder to close out the month.  Notice the connection to the extreme cold up in Canada on tonights 00z run comparing it to last nights 00z run.

 

There is probably going to be a Clipper Type system that will develop somewhere in the Plains or Dakota's that will tug down this bitter arctic shot to close out the month.

[NEJeremy]

I hope you are kidding. If you mean won't change as to hitting South Dakota and Wyomind head on this yes, I hope it won't change either.NW shift seems to be king this year.

 

Oh yeah, I was kidding. Being totally sarcastic   One thing it does look like, is it's going to get cold= cold and brown to start the new year here in Nebraska

[Tom]

A bitterly cold NYE from I-80 on north...some places may not get out of the single digits on the 31st!  Crazy cold coming and hopefully we all share some sort of snow cover by then.

[winterfreak]

The GFS continues to look cold and rather dry in the extended. Bunch of east coast storms though. Cold doesn't mean anything without the snow in my opinion.

[Geos]

I can't believe the Sun has been out for more than a few minutes this morning! Almost forgot what it looked like. 

[Maxim]

Sun has been out all morning here for the most part.

[Tom]

Interesting, both the 12z GGEM/EURO now showing the wave on the 28th much farther north and skirting NE KS/N MO/N IL/N IN/S MI.  Maybe a 1-3" event, looks sheared on both models but that can change.  A nice big HP in the SE is flexing its muscles.

[Tom]

12z Euro looking interesting for another possible lakes/OV cutter on the 29th developing from the deep south near the Texas Gulf on the 28th.  Very similar set up we are currently undergoing but with much more cold air available.

[Tom]

A very impressive storm system may be in the works for our region right around the 29th.  It will be forming on the heels of a massive arcitc outbreak and these type of scenarios usually lead to a vigorous storm to develop.

 

Check out the differences from just 24 hours ago on the Euro and how it organizes the deep/frigid air in Canada and corrects in more central based which allows that potential 29th system to tap into the broad area of cold air.  This is a lucrative situation to get a widespread snow storm somewhere in the region.

[Tom]

I think the current SOI crash was messing with the models the last couple days showing way to much warmth.  One of the most powerful tools in forecasting, the LRC, is going to get this upcoming cold pattern right.  The coming 2-3 weeks are one of the dominant parts of the LRC Cycle.

Wouldn't ya know, the 12z Euro backing off on the sky high AO/NAO.  The look of the 12z run sure had more blocking over North America.  Also, its hinting at another round of the SE ridge as we open up January and I'm tracking that potential Great Lakes storm Jan 3-5th.  Teleconnections are lining up to provide the ingredients necessary to have a widespread snow storm.  Something we didn't have Nov 23rd/24th,

[Tom]

Talk about Snowmagedon over the next 2 weeks coming off the 12z Euro Ensembles...

[tim the weatherman]

Talk about Snowmagedon over the next 2 weeks coming off the 12z Euro Ensembles...

look's like some big totals coming up.

[Snowshoe]

Maine is the place to be!

 

Snowmobile trip planned for Jan 2-4 for a TBD location. Hope that LRC pans out. Should at least see decent LES up north next week.

[Tom]

Maine is the place to be!

 

Snowmobile trip planned for Jan 2-4 for a TBD location. Hope that LRC pans out. Should at least see decent LES up north next week.

With the Lake Superior/Lake Michigan still fairly warm for this time of year, I'd imagine we will see another round of epic lake effect snows up in the U.P. and in western MI.

[Snowshoe]

With the Lake Superior/Lake Michigan still fairly warm for this time of year, I'd imagine we will see another round of epic lake effect snows up in the U.P. and in western MI.

 

Just depends on which way the wind is blowing.

[tim the weatherman]

just read on 41actionnews weather blog and gary lezak said the weather 2020 has us on arctic outbreak onwatch for the next ten days or so and he also has said that the big christmas storm was a hype by the national news media like the weather channel and by accuweather.

[Yerf]

Really looks like the cold air will settle in after this Sunday

[Niko]

Another cloudy, misty day here in SEMI. After some morning moderate rain, it remained cloudy and mild with temps in the upper 40s. It will be in the mid 50s tomorrow with rainy conditions.    Looks like a brown Christmas this year. Last year was a white one with a couple inches on the ground. 

Things might get interesting by early next week. Lets leave it at that for now.

[NEJeremy]

Talk about Snowmagedon over the next 2 weeks coming off the 12z Euro Ensembles...

 

Sorry, but call me unimpressed. First for a selfish reason- only 2 or 3 of those show anything decent for Nebraska.   You then have some that show an OV track and most of them look great for the Northeast. Some show the highest snowfall on the same track as tomorrow's storm so that would mean not much after that either then too. Maine is a great place to be for these runs

[Maxim]

Just not feeling good about this winter because of what might happen to the current system that we're all watching. We're already nearing Christmas, and only a trace of snow this month; just about as pathetic as the 2011/2012 winter season.

[tim the weatherman]

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Arctic-Outbreak-Forecast.jpgthis is the what gary lezak said on his blog that weather2020 has an arcticoutbreak watch out for the next 10 days or so that means that winter is not over and i am so tired of hearing that winter is over and to be a repeat of 2011/2012 according to the lrc.

[Maxim]

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Arctic-Outbreak-Forecast.jpgthis is the what gary lezak said on his blog that weather2020 has an arcticoutbreak watch out for the next 10 days or so that means that winter is not over and i am so tired of hearing that winter is over and to be a repeat of 2011/2012 according to the lrc.

Never did I say that this winter will be a no-show. I was merely stating that I wasn't feeling too good about this winter with the way things are going. 

 

Also, an arctic outbreak with no snow on the ground is meaningless. If it's not going to snow then bring on the 60s and let's torch instead. Cold and dry is just absolutely awful.

[Grizzcoat]

The Ground is white in my locale (30 min WNW of Des Moines)-- about .5" at 6pm and about 1" since.  Roads are still wet-- temperature never colder then 32.2F-- but hey tomorrow is Christmas Eve and the timing couldn't any better.  The dynamic cooling this time I was not very impressed with-- but at least its snowing. Basically was a nowcast and the NWS is still playing catch up. Places 1 hour N have had 4" and that was some time ago. 

[Grizzcoat]

Update-- 1.3" since 6pm. snow was measured every hour and then cleared off a snowboard. About half of that on grassy services-- roads just getting accumulation to stick in last 90 minutes-- mainly slush but scattered slick spots.

[Tom]

Update-- 1.3" since 6pm. snow was measured every hour and then cleared off a snowboard. About half of that on grassy services-- roads just getting accumulation to stick in last 90 minutes-- mainly slush but scattered slick spots.

Atleast someone will have a white Christmas!  Congrats

[gosaints]

2 inches yesterday pretty much gone today.

[Tom]

Something has been brewing over the last day or two on the GFS as it has been trying to develop a system around the 29th.  Euro also dives this energy into the Rockies and holds it there without ejecting it out into the Plains.  This is a system to watch as models get better handling on this energy.

[gabel23]

I also had 2" yesterday and it's pretty much gone. The morning commute was horrible, roads were slush and ice packed. I am now at 5" of snow for the year.

[winterfreak]

GFS looks really boring and cold once again. EURO not much better. They've been showing some nice east coast storms.

[NEJeremy]

looks like the set up on the GFS next week is just some upslope going into the arctic air. Look at the easterly flow and light qpf. Looks like a long lasting light snow event for the upslope areas eastern CO, western NE and KS

[gosaints]

Progressive fast flow good luck getting anything big

[tim the weatherman]

one of the key factors on why is it so mild and cold air is limitations is the weak el nino because that has to do on our pattrens.

[GDR]

I just don't see how it will get as cold as they're talking next week with no snow cover.

[Maxim]

And all this hype about how this winter could end up rivaling last winter 

[gabel23]

I just don't see how it will get as cold as they're talking next week with no snow cover.

We had sub zero highs last year with no snow cover, it can happen.

[Tom]

Over a week ago the Euro Ensembles were hinting at a lot of snow from the Plains to the Lakes and points east.  When I hear someone say that there is no action and its all going to the east, I continue to scratch my head and ask..what models are you ONLY looking at???  There is still plenty of time to see what the models will do with the energy coming into the Rockies and a that arctic HP coming down south into the Plains.  Timing and Placement will be the key to what happens.  Why throw in the towel and wave the white flag now???  Congrats to those in NE/IA who have had more snow than ORD.  

 

When you see at jet stream layout like this, you beg the question if the model is handling the energy in the Rockies incorrectly. I don't recall this type of pattern in the LRC where it held storm systems in the Rockies for days.  Could very well be model error holding it back to long.

[GDR]

Over a week ago the Euro Ensembles were hinting at a lot of snow from the Plains to the Lakes and points east. When I hear someone say that there is no action and its all going to the east, I continue to scratch my head and ask..what models are you ONLY looking at??? There is still plenty of time to see what the models will do with the energy coming into the Rockies and a that arctic HP coming down south into the Plains. Timing and Placement will be the key to what happens. Why throw in the towel and wave the white flag now??? Congrats to those in NE/IA who have had more snow than ORD.

 

When you see at jet stream layout like this, you beg the question if the model is handling the energy in the Rockies incorrectly. I don't recall this type of pattern in the LRC where it held storm systems in the Rockies for days. Could very well be model error holding it back to long.

looks like that Nebraska dome is centered right over us.