December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[tim the weatherman]

the way i found out by the snowman on his weather website he has a great article highlighting the rest of this year and for january of next year and it looks like the central us will be colder and for the eastcoast it will be balmy and warmer so that means that the battleground zone is the lower greatlakes and ohio valley for big snowstorms in our areaand he also has stated we will have a la nina like pattern with the epo going negative too.

[tim the weatherman]

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Would love this pattern in Nebraska. Great information. Thanks for the find Tim.

[tim the weatherman]

Would love this pattern in Nebraska. Great information. Thanks for the find Tim.

welcome centralnebweather.

[Tom]

the way i found out by the snowman on his weather website he has a great article highlighting the rest of this year and for january of next year and it looks like the central us will be colder and for the eastcoast it will be balmy and warmer so that means that the battleground zone is the lower greatlakes and ohio valley for big snowstorms in our areaand he also has stated we will have a la nina like pattern with the epo going negative too.

Sounds right. Checkout the 00z Euro Ensembles Northern Hemispheric 500mb patter.  Big time ridge along the east coast, trough centered in the central CONUS, massive arctic ridge and a small glimpse of a trough near Hawaii where storm systems will like to cut underneath the NW NAMER ridge causing the Split Flow pattern.  This should be an interesting pattern

[gosaints]

If this storm materializes, it will be racing ene'ward and will be in and out in a flash.

This. Fast fast fast

[The Snowman]

Here's the promised write-up on the storm. I backed off an eastward track in the face of the 12z model consensus, though I'd still be wary of such a track given model biases & the Typhoon Rule.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-winter-storm.html

[Tony]

Good post Snowman. As you stated too many uncertainties with this storm, as with the last. I have a bad feeling that the artic air will press further and faster south pushing the storm with it. Only thing I think could keep this from heading too far south and east would be a negative tilt trough. Again the devil is in the finer details which won't be ironed out for a few days.

[james1976]

Nice crappy bullseye of no snow right over my area on that map above. Starting to feel like Nebraska over here.

[Tom]

Took a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles and Control.  Both models are seeing a lakes cutter for the Jan 3rd system.  In fact, I'd say about 70% of the Euro Ensembles are showing some sort of Plains/Midwest/Lakes system.

 

For those snow weenies, check out what the 12z Euro Control is painting over the next 2 weeks!  Hopefully someone gets buried from the pattern that is setting up.  Potentially a very active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes.  BTW, I also checked out the latest Euro Weeklies and the Central CONUS was favoring cold/storminess through the whole month of January.  Barely any east coast systems on that run.  Get ready.

[Tom]

Still a few days away but the 18z NAM is showing a favorable lake effect set up for WI/IL next Tuesday when the arctic front passes on through.  Wind profile's look to be out of the NNE and down the length of the lake.  Again, still a long ways away but something to watch.

[tim the weatherman]

Took a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles and Control.  Both models are seeing a lakes cutter for the Jan 3rd system.  In fact, I'd say about 70% of the Euro Ensembles are showing some sort of Plains/Midwest/Lakes system.

 

For those snow weenies, check out what the 12z Euro Control is painting over the next 2 weeks!  Hopefully someone gets buried from the pattern that is setting up.  Potentially a very active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes.  BTW, I also checked out the latest Euro Weeklies and the Central CONUS was favoring cold/storminess through the whole month of January.  Barely any east coast systems on that run.  Get ready.

looks like geos is going to love this this is right in his area also looks like over a foot in these areas too.

[Tom]

looks like geos is going to love this this is right in his area.

Would be a nice treat to start off 2015 under a deep snow pack...

[tim the weatherman]

the area from north of stl to the southren suburbs of chicago needs to pat attention with the weather forecasts.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122618/gfsp_asnow_us_41.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

[Scott26]

It's amazing that every single model not only has the storm, but the track seems almost identical. Too bad we're still a week plus out...

[Niko]

it looks like niko could get in on the action too.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

I hope so Tim.

[Niko]

Today was absolutely amazing for December standards. It was very mild with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Deep blue skies and a few fair weather high clouds. I swear, it felt like it was Spring. People were washing their cars, jogging, walking, even one or two barbeques were spotted. I even saw bees flying around, if you can believe that.  Just incredible! I must admit, it felt nice being outside, but on the other side of me, I was disappointed for having such an unseasonably mild day for this time of the year. Unlike last year this time, there was a deep snowpack and frigid temps. What a difference a year can make.

[NEJeremy]

I hope one of these model runs/ensemble runs that spread the wealth can get it right as we all of have seen these multiple times this winter before and we are all still way below average. Unfortunately, it always seems these maps by the models are for storms in the 1-2 week period and of course we all know what have happened to those storms when the time comes around!

[Maxim]

It's amazing that every single model not only has the storm, but the track seems almost identical. Too bad we're still a week plus out...

Can't be any worse than the last storm system!

[tim the weatherman]

with the storm right around the 3rd of next month we should wait for the next few days until we look at more model runs then make a thread.

[Geos]

Saw the wind profiles favorable for LES on the west side of the lake for Tuesday. That looks to be the only shot at measurable snow this month, so hopefully that can work out. I'm afraid though a lot of areas will conclude December on a snowless note. Something I don't remember seeing in the last 20 years. 

 

Storm next weekend end looks great. Can't get too excited 7-8 days out yet though. I will say I've probably seen more snowstorms during the first week of January then I have at other times in the winter.

 

High of 49° today with a lot of sun made it feel like a March day actually.

[Tom]

Saw the wind profiles favorable for LES on the west side of the lake for Tuesday. That looks to be the only shot at measurable snow this month, so hopefully that can work out. I'm afraid though a lot of areas will conclude December on a snowless note. Something I don't remember seeing in the last 20 years. 

 

Storm next weekend end looks great. Can't get too excited 7-8 days out yet though. I will say I've probably seen more snowstorms during the first week of January then I have at other times in the winter.

 

High of 49° today with a lot of sun made it feel like a March day actually.

Seems like the GFS is trying to get better phasing of this system a little earlier each day.  Looking better organized on tonights 00z run.

[winterfreak]

Look like a similar track to the Nov system. Leaves the central plains high and dry. Even Lezak is admittedly down on this one.

[james1976]

I'm liking that the GFS is a bit more NW and more phased. Still amused at the donut hole in my area and for you Nebraska folks. Over a week away yet so we got a lot of time to track this thing. No one wants to be in the bullseye right now. Realistically, being NW of this right now may be the best.

[Maxim]

Looks like this December in Chicago will end with only a trace of snow, that has to be pretty rare... How many other Decembers featured only a trace of snow for the entire month?

[East Dubzz]

I sat outside around a fire today with a t-shirt and shorts. And then it started raining. Something is wrong with this.

[gosaints]

Wagons south

[GDR]

Wow what a blah of crap. Winter can move on if it's going to keep this pattern up.

[james1976]

GFS has the 3rd-4th storm more NW now. Mid to long range is very active and cold. 

[Geos]

Looks like this December in Chicago will end with only a trace of snow, that has to be pretty rare... How many other Decembers featured only a trace of snow for the entire month?

 

I don't know if there has been any in recent history. I sure can't think of any. Only chance of snow this month is Tuesday when the winds shift the winds out of the NE for a short period. Other than that, November looks like it was/will be snowier than this month.

 

I sat outside around a fire today with a t-shirt and shorts. And then it started raining. Something is wrong with this.

 

I didn't put on shorts yesterday, but I was outside with just a sweatshirt on. Wouldn't have done that this year at this time!

 

Very windy and blustery outside now.

[Iowawx]

Regular GFS has the storm and it is a very solid event for most of us, with another event on the 5th. However, the parallel GFS has the storm suppressed and keeps our area dry throughout the entire run.

[FV-Mike]

1912 the last time chicago did not record any snow in December

[Tom]

I don't know if there has been any in recent history. I sure can't think of any. Only chance of snow this month is Tuesday when the winds shift the winds out of the NE for a short period. Other than that, November looks like it was/will be snowier than this month.

 

 

I didn't put on shorts yesterday, but I was outside with just a sweatshirt on. Wouldn't have done that this year at this time!

 

Very windy and blustery outside now.

What are the Delta T's looking like on Tuesday???  Water temps are in the low/mid 40's and with temps in the low/mid 20's this should generate some intense instability.  Would be nice to see a heavy lake effect band for a few hours before winds turn more NNW.

[Maxim]

1912 the last time chicago did not record any snow in December

Thank you Mike

[Tom]

So let the battle begins for the Jan 3rd storm...GFS/GGEM vs Euro.  Euro is the slowest model to kick that energy out of the 4 corners region which results in no storm forming.  Certainly seems like it is the model bias holding the energy back for to long.

 

I think all models are agreeing on some major cold after this system.  We may have a baroclinic zone set up after this system and pieces of energy coming out of the Rockies could produce some snows in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Models have a tough time trying to figure this out this far in advance but something to look forward to.  GFS is showing it for right now.

[GDR]

So let the battle begins for the Jan 3rd storm...GFS/GGEM vs Euro. Euro is the slowest model to kick that energy out of the 4 corners region which results in no storm forming. Certainly seems like it is the model bias holding the energy back for to long.

 

I think all models are agreeing on some major cold after this system. We may have a baroclinic zone set up after this system and pieces of energy coming out of the Rockies could produce some snows in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes. Models have a tough time trying to figure this out this far in advance but something to look forward to. GFS is showing it for right now.

we need the king euro onboard.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah I don't feel good about it unless the Euro is on board. Seems like one of those years where the Euro has gotten everything right or close at least.

[Tom]

we need the king euro onboard.

I think it will come back.  If you take a look at the 00z 26th run, it had the energy come out quicker and farther north which resulted in a major snow storm.  Now, for today's 12z run the energy is no where near as far north  which screws up the whole pattern.  Euro has a bias of holding energy back to long.

[Tom]

Back on Nov 23rd/24th we had a positive AO/NAO/EPO and a similar -PNA.  This time around the AO/NAO will be near neutral and with a -PNA a SE Ridge present.  The EPO will also be in the tank so a much different opportunity for this storm to materialize into a widespread snowfall.

 

 

[Tom]

Taking a gander at the new CPC outlook over the next 2 weeks and there are signals for a snowy/cold central CONUS.  Notice widespread chances of above normal precip covering the central CONUS and temps more than likely averaging very cold.