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The deck gets deeper. My goodness. 

Just because I'll never see a model like this again. Hahaha.   

I measured 14-16” in many places. Local media saying we got 5” with this latest storm and I measured 2.5” Saturday morning on top of everything else. This is my north yard. 

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Both GFSs have been consistently dry here.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Tony said:

Award for worst model this winter

as much as i want the GFS to be right for my area this week it has been completely wrong. On Monday it was saying we should have 8 inches of snow by now and we have only received maybe half a inch. 

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9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

as much as i want the GFS to be right for my area this week it has been completely wrong. On Monday it was saying we should have 8 inches of snow by now and we have only received maybe half a inch. 

No matter how bad it is we still all look at it and post maps from it. If it shows something hot then its our model to go to but unfortunately it hardly ever pans out. 

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8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GDPS shows 3.3" in Cedar Rapids today... 🤔  Forecast is less than an inch.  

Looks like some good snow in Northern/Northeast Nebraska on 511 site that will be heading towards Iowa.  Not sure if dry air will be a problem your way or not.

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Now that I've looked at all the models, except the 12z Euro, here's my prediction.  I think my area may get 2", maybe 2.5" if we snow a little earlier or it lasts longer on Friday.  I think the 2nd wave (Saturday night-Sunday night) will be a good snow producer for my area and southwest.  I think we could hit 4-6" if everything lines up.  If we could get 6" or a little more this weekend, I'd be happy.  We'll see if I'm close or not.

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30 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GDPS shows 3.3" in Cedar Rapids today... 🤔  Forecast is less than an inch.  

I think it will depend on how far south the snow band gets.  Some models keep it mostly north, just grazing Cedar Rapids.  The GDPS sags it farther south.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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13 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Really coming down now. Could this over perform? Forecast was for under an inch.

This really looks a lot like the snow we got here on Monday.  Just a small narrow band that really over performed.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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The band around Hwy 20 looks like it's starting to dive south down to Hwy 30 and will hit Cedar Rapids. Looks like snow should start falling here in the next hour or so unless the dry air is winning out.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro through 84 hours.  I'd be more than happy with this amount.

Looks like me, @Clinton and the KC folks are going to have to call in an Exorcist or sacrifice chickens in the backyard or something to get rid of this bad mojo. These maps are getting ridiculous.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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It'll be nice to get a snowfall outside of the early morning hours again. Unfortunately I'll be stuck at work on Friday lol. Regardless I'm happy to get more snow and another snowpack refresher before we head into the worst of the cold. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Thats advisory stuff. NWS continues to not say a lot about it.

Par for the course.  They absolutely blew the forecast on the blizzard and didn't make anything of the 2-5" that fell on Monday.  I feel like models have done a much better job in the near term (within 48 hours) of not over blowing accumulations.  It used to be standard that you took a model output and subtracted 25-50% from it, but this season models have done really well with total qpf and snow totals.  I think the NWS is still subtracting totals off the top of model output, which may be why they have been underselling storms.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Par for the course.  They absolutely blew the forecast on the blizzard and didn't make anything of the 2-5" that fell on Monday.  I feel like models have done a much better job in the near term (within 48 hours) of not over blowing accumulations.  It used to be standard that you took a model output and subtracted 25-50% from it, but this season models have done really well with total qpf and snow totals.  I think the NWS is still subtracting totals off the top of model output, which may be why they have been underselling storms.  

The storm to close out January really dried up on the models, so that's not entirely true.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Solid little snow shower happening now. Looks like a light dusting so far. It’s also gotten a bit breezy this evening. 3 feels like -15. We’ve been blessed with minimal wind with this cold wave so far.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

GFS with another solid 8-12" run through Monday. Crazy... Don't really know which storm to consider it a part of at this point.

You have another big dog right on it's heels.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

You have another big dog right on it's heels.

Yeah, I'm waiting on that part to run right now. I should add, I used Kuchera ratios in my comment. Snow at 10-17 degrees is going to be really fluffy.

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That's literally a week strung out of snow upon snow. Maybe a 36 hour break. I'm standing on a foot through 6 days, easily.

Closer to two feet in western Oklahoma. This will be a historic February before it's over, and at the very least, an introduction to real winter like the "old days". There are folks who think a bad winter here is any in the last 9 years. They were wrong. Lol.

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1 hour ago, Tony said:

The GFS was never even in this. Was and is on a different planet

But if it was never in it and now other models are not in it then maybe it scored a win? I guess we'll see tomorrow 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's literally a week strung out of snow upon snow. Maybe a 36 hour break. I'm standing on a foot through 6 days, easily.

Closer to two feet in western Oklahoma. This will be a historic February before it's over, and at the very least, an introduction to real winter like the "old days". There are folks who think a bad winter here is any in the last 9 years. They were wrong. Lol.

Hey bud, are you going to start a thread for the storm down south or what???  I literally asked a couple times on here but I'm not sure if your reading these posts or not...LOL  Anyway, if not, I'll fire one up right now.

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06z NAM sends a lead wave up through the MW/Lower Lakes on Valentine's Day as the main energy from the big President's Day storm digs into AZ/NM/TX on Sunday.  Wonder if this will be a trend or just subtle model to model variations...

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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